2.50+ fav

[thorns]

Just after some quick stats.

What is the strike rate of favs paying $2.50 and up?
And what is the overall loss?

Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

25.94%
-13.97% POT

But paying less than $2.50
45.19%
-10.82% POT

[thorns]

Cheers chrome. Don't suppose you could also tell me the longest loosing run for the group $2.50 and above?

[Pauls123]

Hi again Chrome, thats a pretty high statistic 45%, just about one in two but then again it is fav's shorter than 6/4. And with a LOT of around 11%.

Surely there must be a couple of filters that would see this LOT turn into a POT, any clues on any simples ones..?

Regards
Paul

[partypooper]

Pauls123, I hope Chrome can answer that for you cos I will be watching very closely.

But in any case you are *thinking* in the right way if you wanna make this game pay, the whole thing is set mechanically AGAINST you (us) I'm convinced that is also the way to beat it, i.e invest in a mechanical way.

On the current topic it's not rocket science to learn that the FAV around 1-1 (evens) makes a tiny loss, odds on LESS of a loss, and yes it is possible with the right approach to tilt this into a small profit. talkin bout' getting the best odds here!

The profits are miniscule in terms of % but the satisfaction is immense, kinda the same feeling when you do a balance transfer to 0% interest and put the cash into an account with the same bank earning 5% P/A interest, the amount is small but the satisfaction is imeasurable.

good luck!

[Pauls123]

Hey there Party, yes I guess there are numerous ways that one could tie in with the fav. I reckon everyone in this forum would have thrashed these just about to death by now, but how do we turn that negative figure into a small positive figure. Looking just at that 45% 6/4 and shorter figure, maybe one could:

Looking only at openers with IAS at $2.50 and shorter back them if they rate fav with R&S Don Scott

Rate fav with R&S market site

Rate 100 with Unitab (although I have never really gotten into Unitab much)

Or go to some sort of a mechanical system days since last start/won track/distance etc etc.

Maybe some of you have stats on these type of things already. It's something I will look at, however I am going away within less than a fortnight, doing a trip down the coast of nsw and ending up on the great ocean road, for 6 weeks all up. Something I will have a stickybeak at upon my return. I am still reasonably happy with my sectional time stuff, so something like this would be like a sideline so to speak.

Paul

[Stix]

1. <=2.50
2. Racing within 8 days

Sel 855
Win 425
S/R 49.7%
Profit +12
POT 1.43%

1. <=2.50
2. Racing within 8 days
3. <=0 kg last start

Sel 359
Win 202
S/R 56.3%
Profit +52
POT 14.43%


1. <=2.50
2. Racing within 8 days
3. <=0 kg last start
4. <0 m last start

Sel 359
Win 202
S/R 56.3%
Profit +52
POT 14.43%

1. <=2.50
2. Racing within 8 days
3. <=0 kg last start
4. <0 m last start
5. <5th last start

Sel 55
Win 36
S/R 65.5%
Profit +21
POT 38.9%

[Pauls123]

hey Stix, excellent stats once again, I am envious of your data base. So these are mostly 6/4 (or shorter) favs that are down in weight, or down in distance from their last starts..?, just checking here.

I am also assuming that these were your strongest in this type of search. Over what period would these be, I am curious particularly with the last search yielding only 55 selections. This does get the old grey matter ticking over, doesnt it.

Thanks again,
Paul

[Stix]

hey Stix, excellent stats once again, I am envious of your data base. So these are mostly 6/4 (or shorter) favs that are down in weight, or down in distance from their last starts..?, just checking here.

I am also assuming that these were your strongest in this type of search. Over what period would these be, I am curious particularly with the last search yielding only 55 selections. This does get the old grey matter ticking over, doesnt it.

Thanks again,
PaulPrice = $2.50 or less (and favourite)
Database = RaceCensus (Thanks Chrome!)
<=0 kg = same weight or less than last start
<=0m = same distance or less than last start
Period is 8 years.....

Think guys like wesmip and michaelg have databases that include provincial and country stats as well as Unitab and neural factors....

Good Luck...