Aussie Open with Tonymess

[Tonymess]

Australian Open Round 2 - my rated prices (to 100%) - for those that don't know the shortest price I rate anyone is 1.03 (conversely 33.33 is the longest).

MALISSE, XAVIER 4.33 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.3 - Malisse had to qualify here (another Slam Semi Finalist - along with Hrbaty - who had to slog it out over three consecutive days even to make the draw), not the player he was but may push Roddick a little. A-Rod too short with bookies for my liking.

SANTORO, FABRICE 2.17 vs KOHLSCHREIBER, PHILIPP 1.86 - Kohl ridiculously short in early markets for a bloke who pulled out of Auckland last week with a shoulder problem. Value play would be Santoro, for a small amount.

ROBREDO, TOMMY 1.6 vs Troicki, Viktor 2.67 - Bookies are betting close to my prices (if they'd bet to a 100% book they would be!!!). No betting here.

NALBANDIAN, DAVID 1.03 vs LU, YEN-HSUN 33.33 - A fit healthy Bandy wins this, but there are a heap of guys put up under 1.10 today and I can't come at punting at those prices.

SODERLING, ROBIN 1.5 vs BAGHDATIS, MARCOS 3 - Soderling a bit of value at 1.65 and Baggy is priced on what he has done in previous years, not where he's at right now - I'm on the Swede.

BOLELLI, SIMONE 2.47 vs FISH, MARDY 1.68 - Bookies put up prices similar to mine so why punt?

MATHIEU, PAUL-HENRI 1.27 vs DELIC, AMER 4.7 - Never been able to get Mathieu right and Delic just a serve (which doesn't always land in the court - and I mean the whole court, sometimes the crowd is an option). I'm ignoring this match and the form out of it.

Chardy, Jeremy 4.32 vs Djokovic, Novak 1.3 - Djokovic not really switched on in his appearances so far this year, and Chardy an up and comer (will be popular with the top shelf crowd even it's only becuase of his name). No way I'd take 1.08 Djokovic at the moment, but given his experience he should win.

MAYER, FLORIAN 8.64 vs del Potro, Juan Martin 1.13 - Del Potro winning Auckland as a lead in, Mayer playing New Caledonia Challenger and then qualifying here, attempting to get back to his best. His slice returns may upset the rhythm of Del Potro, but current form has Argentine written all over this. Not that I'd be jumping into the 1.05 that's on offer.

Tomic, Bernard 33.33 vs MULLER, GILLES 1.03 - Tomic rated no hope by myself, due to the fact he's been in my database about 3 minutes. Has the bonueses of crowd support and Muller potentially being exhausted by his 16-14 5th set in in R1. Tomic two wins and 1 loss to lefties so no idea about how he handles them. I do expect Muller to win this but I don't bet against local players. I pity anyone who has night tickets to Rod Laver and cops this sham - I'd be asking for my money back.

Cilic, Marin 1.27 vs TIPSAREVIC, JANKO 4.67 - Tipsarevic been out of sorts in Australia and did battle in R1. These guys played a few weeks ago in Chennai with Cilic winning 64,06,64 but then they bet 1.52, now you have to take 1.40 or so. Serb vs a Croat so fireworks in the crowd a potential distraction. If I was forced to have a bet on this match it would be Cilic. Only if I was forced though.

FERRER, DAVID 2.87 vs HRBATY, DOMINIK 1.54 - Hrbaty the outsider with the books, had to qualify here and beat the big serving giant Isner in 4 sets, Ferrer taking 5 to beat the average Gremelmayr. Both of these have made the Quarters here before and both are Slam Semi Finalists so show court 3 is not a bad venue for them. Value is with Hrbaty all the way and he's worth a small punt.

WAWRINKA, STANISLAS 1.28 vs Klein, Brydan 4.54 - Aussie will need all of the support to make him believe he is even a rough chance. Wawrinka at 1.05 or so is a joke, it was only a few years ago I saw him in qualifying (getting whipped by Djokovic).

DABUL, BRIAN 7.04 vs BERDYCH, TOMAS 1.17 - Berdych the Safin of the noughties - which one will be on court? Not taking a ridiculous price even in a multi, should win easily though.

SAFIN, MARAT 1.63 vs GARCIA-LOPEZ, GUILLERMO 2.58 - Safin way shorter than my rated price, but if the real one turns up (which can do at these events) then he is a 1.25 shot. Garcia-Lopez will struggle even if Safin is only 75% tuned up.

FEDERER, ROGER 1.03 vs Korolev, Evgueni 33.33 - The great one wins but there is no way I'd take 1.02/1.03 about any bet not even in multis.

I'll be trying Hrbaty and Soderling - maybe having a nibble at Santoro. Besides that all the short priced ones can go around without me.

Cheers

Tony

[Sportz]

I'm amazed that there was such a plunge on Hewitt today. In the end, he played damn well just to take it to 5 sets, but I always expected Gonzalez to win it. He was good value in the end.

[Tonymess]

I did rate Hewitt favourite in that one - but didn't punt that match. Plunge of the day goes to Istomin over Spadea, when I checked this morning at Sportingbet he was in from 2.25 to 1.87 or so at the jump - the smart money got the chocolates too.

[jayjones1]

i think your spot on the money there http://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1981/t08g1114ocrq/1.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1808/t08g1114ocrq/1.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1795/t08g1114ocrq/1.gif

[Tonymess]

You can't swear in this forum so what's the point??? **** of a day. I could be like other forums and claim Santoro, but hey I lost my only two punts, a weak (read pathetic....soft.....got here on a cheap ranking and don't care no more) Hrbaty and a soft (read pea hearted.....I'll never be any good if I keep giving up when the going is slightly tough) Soderling.


Thursday is a new one but..

Here are my prices but there is absolutely no reason to punt any match at all.

Australian Open Round 2
KARANUSIC, ROKO 33.33 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 1.03
HAAS, TOMMY 1.5 vs CIPOLLA, FLAVIO 2.99
GASQUET, RICHARD 1.08 vs Istomin, Denis 13.05
CANAS, GUILLERMO 4.42 vs GONZALEZ, FERNANDO 1.29
Monfils, Gael 1.17 vs KOUBEK, STEFAN 6.93
ALMAGRO, NICOLAS 1.78 vs Fognini, Fabio 2.28
KARLOVIC, IVO 2.16 vs ANCIC, MARIO 1.86
GUCCIONE, CHRIS 5.28 vs Simon, Gilles 1.23
Granollers, Marcel 33.33 vs MURRAY, ANDREW 1.03
BECK, ANDREAS 2.36 vs MELZER, JURGEN 1.74
STEPANEK, RADEK 1.35 vs BERRER, MICHAEL 3.88
CLEMENT, ARNAUD 6.92 vs VERDASCO, FERNANDO 1.17
BLAKE, JAMES 1.19 vs DE-CHAUNAC, SEBASTIEN 6.35
Gulbis, Ernests 1.59 vs ANDREEV, IGOR 2.69
SELA, DUDI 2.39 vs HANESCU, VICTOR 1.72
TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 1.19 vs LJUBICIC, IVAN 6.35

Yesterday I could have called Federer into Djokovic into Roddick into Del Potro into Berdych into Safin and got us 1.50 - but hey my nature isn't into calling good things at 1.05 - no rocket science in that.

Today you could put Nadal into Gasquet into Monfils into Murray into Stepanek into Verdasco into Blake into Tsonga and get 1.80 - do you really want me to tell you they'll win??????

Would like to know if anyone has any opinions different from the usual....if you do post 'em here and I'll be an obnoxious old bu*ger and ignore you.

Cheers

Tony

[Tonymess]

Apologies for missing Friday's matches, been flat out.

Saturday at Melbourne Park.

HAAS, TOMMY 5.19 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 1.23 - Nadal holds a H2H of 3-0 advantage (Haas not taking a set) and Haas no longer the player he was. Brittle body probably won't have the power to match Nadal here.

GASQUET, RICHARD 1.46 vs GONZALEZ, FERNANDO 3.15 - Amazingly not played before and bookies have this the other way around. Gasquet a little enigmatic and Gonzo does do well here, but the Frenchman being over 2.0 means he has to be tried, just as a value punt.

Monfils, Gael 1.08 vs ALMAGRO, NICOLAS 14.26 - A win each in two encounters. Current prices available Monfils are actually juicy. Bloke can throw in a shocker now and again so be warned - may have his act together with a new coach. May not!!!

Simon, Gilles 1.9 vs ANCIC, MARIO 2.11 - Ancic won their only encounter back in March last year in Miami in a three setter. Simon's style of play should counter Ancic's - an interesting one but not one where I'd punt.

MURRAY, ANDREW 1.03 vs MELZER, JURGEN 33.33 - Murray with a 3-0 record against Melzer, but Melzer took it to 5 at the US Open last year and to 4 on grass in the Davis Cup later in the year. For the record Murray is 29 wins and 8 losses to lefties (5 of those losses have been to Nadal and if you take him out of the equation he hasn't lost to a southpaw since Di Mauro in a Challenger 3 years ago when Murray was still eligible for junior events). Ridiculously short, but wins.

STEPANEK, RADEK 2.52 vs VERDASCO, FERNANDO 1.66 - Stepanek 3-0 in the H2H stakes and has a 43 win 15 loss record to lefties (includes those three matches). Bookies price it very similar to my prices so leave it alone.

BLAKE, JAMES 1.38 vs ANDREEV, IGOR 3.62 - Blake with a 5-0 H2H record against the Russian - another match where bookies aren't offering a lot of value.

SELA, DUDI 3.27 vs TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 1.44 - Tsonga a lot shorter with the books but does have a dodgy back so I wouldn't be jumping at short prices. Played last year with Tsonga winning 2&4.

Probably another conservative day of punting but the young Frenchmen Gasquet and Monfils are value prices so probably the ones worth trying. Chuck Murray into multis as well if you want to add a further 6% to your calcs.

Cheers

Tony

[Tonymess]

Sunday's rated prices a little early for you and as we get this far into the draw you have the usual suspects.

Australian Open Round 4
ROBREDO, TOMMY 3.41 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.42
Djokovic, Novak 1.53 vs BAGHDATIS, MARCOS 2.89
Cilic, Marin 2.31 vs del Potro, Juan Martin 1.76
FEDERER, ROGER 1.18 vs BERDYCH, TOMAS 6.6

Can't see there being much value around (Cilic will be overs but I do rate him the outsider). Another day of learning not punting.

Cheers

Tony

[MyHatMyCoat]

Thanks Tony. Input much appreciated.

[schonegg]

Djokovic, Novak 1.53 vs BAGHDATIS, MARCOS 2.89
Baghdatis looks short at that price, you thinking possible upset?

Do you have a prognostic on Dokic-Kleybanova. The Aussie might be under the odds.

thanks.

[Tonymess]

I only rate Baggy only a 34% chacne of winning but having said that Djokovic has been out of sorts this year, also been receiving bad press from the way he handled questions about the fights in Melbourne Park. I'd rather leave that match alone as it is a former winner against a former finalist - one thing's for sure, there will be crowd noise galore - more like a soccer match than a tennis match.

Monday's rated prices.

Australian Open Round 4

NADAL, RAFAEL 1.34 vs GONZALEZ, FERNANDO 3.96 - Don't know if Gonzo can back up after a 12-10 5th set match against our value play Gasquet (tie break in third set went deep too so we weren't far off the mark, but they don't pay out on that). Expect Nadal to win here, but he'll be short.

Simon, Gilles 2.39 vs Monfils, Gael 1.72 - Two Frenchemen and I won't be punting. A close one to boot.

VERDASCO, FERNANDO 9.07 vs MURRAY, ANDREW 1.12 - Stepanek double bagled against Verdasco, he won't have it as easy here.

BLAKE, JAMES 2.26 vs TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 1.79 - Tsonga's back was playing up the deeper he got into his match against Sela, will have to be fit to win this one, a close encounter on the cards in my opinion.

A couple of interesting matches and a couple that should go the way of the favourites.

I'm not punting but have fun if you do.

Cheers

Tony

[Tonymess]

One interesting option available today is the total games in the Cilic vs Del Potro match. Sportingbet has the line at 40 games, Betfair at 38.5.

Together both players have competed in 48 best of 5 set matches in their careers, of those only 13 have been more than 40 games (15 more than 38.5). A low percentage (27% and 31%).

Effectively people are calling this match going to at least 4, probably 5, sets. Big call for a 50/50 bet.

I'm on the under 40 games at Sportingbet - reckon it is close to a 67% chance of happening.

Best wishes if you have a try.

Cheers

Tony

[Tonymess]

Well Del Potro vs Cilic ended exactly at 40 games so bookies were spot on the mark there - a refund's better than a loss though.

Quarter Finals time

Djokovic, Novak 3.11 vs RODDICK, ANDY 1.47
FEDERER, ROGER 1.7 vs del Potro, Juan Martin 2.42

Both very interesting match ups and ones that could be very close - I'll look at punting options before posting anything, but am thinking of laying Djokovic and Federer in straight sets (so if Roddick or Del Potro take at least 1 set you're a winner).

Cheers

Tony

[Tonymess]

The other two Quarter Finals

Simon, Gilles 3.16 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 1.46 - H2H 2-1 in Nadal's favour. Simon 22 wins and 18 losses to lefties (includes the 3 matches against Nadal)

TSONGA, JO-WILFIED 2.47 vs VERDASCO, FERNANDO 1.68 - Not played before, Tsonga 23 wins and 12 losses to lefties, will find this one a tough opponent.

As we get late into these events the prices do tighten up as my ratings will improve for any player who can win 4 matches in a row (especially in the best of 5 scenario). I anticipate Verdasco being big value (books will probably have it the other way around), question is can he back up after a hard one in the heat of the day against a bloke who has a three setter in the cool of the evening (even if his back is giving him trouble).

All the roughies (bookmaker ones that is) will be considered value in my pricing, but the problem is we have them opposing three Slam winners and a Slam Finalist with Roddick being the only roughie who has made it at this level.

In my opinion probably better to leave these matches alone, unless you fancy laying each of the favourites in straight sets.

Cheers

Tony

[Tonymess]

Semi Final Number One

FEDERER, ROGER 1.67 vs RODDICK, ANDY 2.50 - Add to my pricing a 15-2 H2H advantage for Federer (yep he's won 15 of their 17 meetings, although Roddick did win their last clash priced at 5.65 in Miami last April) and the fact that Roddick had a hard one in the heat of the day and Federer had an easy one in the cool of the night. All of that adds up to a Federer win. Roddick looking a lot fitter than in recent years though so I wouldn't be taking a ridiculous price Federer.

Cheers

Tony

[Chuck]

I"ve had a pretty ordinary Open :(

Got back a bit with Verdasco's wins over Murray and Tsonga, but lost a stack on Cilic vs Del Porto arrghh

and a few early upsets killed me.... tursunov, youzhny, gulbis pulled out shockers :mad:

[Tonymess]

Verdasco and Roddick (if you were on at a bookie who pays out after a set has been completed) were massive overlays for me, pity I didn't tell you all to jump on. Del Potro was shocking last night but at least Simon had some fight in him tonight.

Semi Final from the top half of the draw sees two leftie Spaniards go H2H, with Nadal holding a 7-0 record, Verdasco winning one set in all those matches and that was at Queens when Nadal is backing up quickly after winning the French Open a few days before.

VERDASCO, FERNANDO 2.55 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 1.65

Almost identical pricing to the other Semi with the bloke who has the massive mental edge of winning every time they meet being rated the shorter.

A Nadal vs Federer Final? Now that would be good as it's been a while since we've had a Final in Melbourne of that calibre. Would love the Fed to equal Sampras' record of 14 Grand Slam wins at the first Slam of the year - let every person know that he's not a spent force. For the record at this stage I'd rate Fed favourite over Nadal but it all depends on how they shape up in their Semis (assuming they win of course).

Happy punting and may the lady who got all the favours by having the roof closed for her today get thumped tomorrow (wishful thinking I fear).

Cheers

Tony

[Sportz]

The roof should have been closed all day, and for a few of the previous days as well. It was ridiculous. Seriously, what's it going to take before they realise that Melbourne in January is too damn hot to play the Australian Open - a death?

I agree with you though. Williams has been incredibly lucky. Once they'd decided to START her match with the roof open, they should have FINISHED it that way. The conditions didn't change. It was terribly hot when they started the first set and terribly hot when they finished it. And I don't think there's much doubt Williams would have lost if the roof had stayed open.

[Sportz]

I backed Serena Williams and Dinara Safina pre-tournament and I've got to say they'd been pretty damn lucky to even make it to the semis. Serena could have and probably should have been beaten twice, and Safina was down 5-2 in the 3rd against Cornet and then could easily have lost to Dokic the other night as well. They both proved too good today though.

[rabbitz]

I know Nadal is a great player and world no 1 but after seeing Federer tonight i cant see how he can lose the final
$1.75 on unitab
$1.73 on centrebet

Am not allowed to declare certainties but he is that close to a good thing

PS I wouldnt be surpised that they conduct an autopsy after hes dead and say all we found was wires and nuts and bolts LOL

[rabbitz]

The roof should have been closed all day, and for a few of the previous days as well. It was ridiculous. Seriously, what's it going to take before they realise that Melbourne in January is too damn hot to play the Australian Open - a death?

I agree with you though. Williams has been incredibly lucky. Once they'd decided to START her match with the roof open, they should have FINISHED it that way. The conditions didn't change. It was terribly hot when they started the first set and terribly hot when they finished it. And I don't think there's much doubt Williams would have lost if the roof had stayed open.

They should play it in Hobart or Brisbane (it rarely gets that hot even in January)

[Tonymess]

Well it comes down to the two best players and it's not often we can say that in Melbourne.

I price it
FEDERER, ROGER 1.65 vs NADAL, RAFAEL 2.54

H2H it's 12-6 in Nadal's favour, however clay he has a 9-1 record so exclude that and it's 5-3 Federer's way.

Looks like the prices available will be similar to mine.

Hope you all had a successful tournament and I will try to post some tennis thoughts on this forum from time to time.

Happy punting.

Tony

[Sportz]

Thanks for your thought, Tony.

[rabbitz]

I know Nadal is a great player and world no 1 but after seeing Federer tonight i cant see how he can lose the final
$1.75 on unitab
$1.73 on centrebet

Am not allowed to declare certainties but he is that close to a good thing

PS I wouldnt be surpised that they conduct an autopsy after hes dead and say all we found was wires and nuts and bolts LOL

Close but not close enough
Where does he go from here
am I allowed to say Nadal is a good thing to win the french LOL

[Sportz]

Thanks for your thought, Tony.

I actually meant, thanks for your thoughts. I'm sure you had more than one thought over the whole 2 weeks. ;)

[Sportz]

am I allowed to say Nadal is a good thing to win the french LOL

Yes, you are. But we're also allowed to not congratulate you for picking a $1.30 winner. ;)

[Sportz]

Then again, given your past record Rabz, you've probably got more chance of stopping him than Federer. :D