How would you bet these

[crazyjord]

Results for yesterday

2.80 1.30
5.30 2.oo
.......7.60
.......1.80
.......2.20
6.50 2.40
4.40 2.00
L
.......1.50
4.40 1.80
L

Just win just place or 1w 3p
It's a system ive been working on that centres around horses having 3rd or 4th start from a spell.

Todays picks are

Seymour
r6-1
r7-9

Bunbury
r6-8
r7-2

[Shaun]

You will always make more from win only

[jayjones1]

thats rights but heaps more risk
http://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1981/t08g1114ocrq/1.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1808/t08g1114ocrq/1.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1795/t08g1114ocrq/1.gif

[crash]

That doesn't make sense. making more money = more risk[?] Lower strike rate for the win only sure, but in the end the odds are in favour of the win bet [regarding profit], not the place bet. Profit is the name of the game, not strike rate.

[AngryPixie]

Seymour
r6-1
r7-9

Bunbury
r6-8
r7-2
Mmm well that's the forum curse.


Profit is the name of the game, not strike rate.

Absolutely right!

Crazyjord, get about 500 more selections under your belt and you'll be able to answer the question yourself ;)

[crazyjord]

That doesn't make sense. making more money = more risk[?] Lower strike rate for the win only sure, but in the end the odds are in favour of the win bet [regarding profit], not the place bet. Profit is the name of the game, not strike rate.Yeh i can see where your coming from,i was thinking more along the lines of more places = more profit,but i suppose if you can get enough constant winners then your a lot better off.



Mmm well that's the forum curse.lol yeh i was wondering if that would happen:)


Ok my system has come up with 15 selections over 5 meetings tomorrow,do you think thats to many for 1 system in a day ?
I suppose if your selections are coming in you can say it's not many but,the more you have the greater your odds of losing or winning,what do you think?

[AngryPixie]

Crazy, I don't think the number of selections is relevant. I've about 70-80 selections on a good Saturday, and most other days have 30-40 selections. I would suggest though that you have some idea of the value of each selection and don't plonk on every one. As an example, of todays 30 odd possible lays, I could only get the price I wanted on 8.

What's important is your edge. No edge no bet ;)

PS: Oh and making a profit too ;)

[crash]

Crazy, I don't think the number of selections is relevant. I've about 70-80 selections on a good Saturday, and most other days have 30-40 selections. I would suggest though that you have some idea of the value of each selection and don't plonk on every one. As an example, of todays 30 odd possible lays, I could only get the price I wanted on 8.

What's important is your edge. No edge no bet ;)

PS: Oh and making a profit too ;)

I agree, edge is everything but most importantly as overall edge, not edge per bet. If a punter's account 'in' column has less in it than the 'out' column at the end of the month/year, perceived edge per bet is out of whack. Simple maths says if overall edge cannot be improved, reducing bets would reduce loss and increasing them would exacerbate loss.

[crazyjord]

Crazy, I don't think the number of selections is relevant. I've about 70-80 selections on a good Saturday, and most other days have 30-40 selections. I would suggest though that you have some idea of the value of each selection and don't plonk on every one. As an example, of todays 30 odd possible lays, I could only get the price I wanted on 8.

What's important is your edge. No edge no bet ;)

PS: Oh and making a profit too ;)Thanks for the advice.
I haven't had a bet for about a year now,had enough of just looking at the form guide for 30 min and picking a few horses out,got lots of big wins but probably twice as many losers,so now im just trying to get a few systems together and a couple of them are showing good profit,although iv'e only been testing them for about a month with tab prices,so i imagine if i used betfair or best tote the profits would be even greater.
(i know a month isn't a very good guide but with work i just havent had the time till lately)

Here's today's picks using the same system as yesterday,hopefully the curse has gone.:)

MR
r3-5
r5-1
r7-6

PR
r4-9
r6-1

BR
r8-3

SR
r4-4
r5-13
r6-3

CR
r7-3
r8-10

[darkydog2002]

I know of a Top Class Professional who used to post on this forum who bet on average 80 bets per week for a yearly 10 % profit on his turnover.

As for me I prefer to be more selective.

Cheers.
darky.

[TWOBETS]

That doesn't make sense. making more money = more risk[?] Lower strike rate for the win only sure, but in the end the odds are in favour of the win bet [regarding profit], not the place bet. Profit is the name of the game, not strike rate.While I agree with your line Crash, I'd like to remind all that there are plans of attack out there that specifically target place betting and often these systems show a woeful loss on win bets. As you know it's all I do cause I have a low pain thresh hold. So yes the odds might be in favour of the win bet but for me Strike rate IS the name of the game ...cause that equals profit.

[crash]

A $2 [often less] place collect on a $8 winner is not enticing. Saying that however, there is something to be said for the place bet. Over $8w SP I bet 1x3 because in my experience enough place bets get up to make it worthwhile. Below $8w SP I've found the place bet a waste of time and a loss over straight win bets.

[Bhagwan]

One small rule to try & keep in mind when using multiple systems .

Try not to double up on a system selection if the same horse is selected 2 or more times by 2 or more different systems.

Otherwise we are making the assumption, that the horse has twice the chance of winning , which, in most cases they haven't.

One suggestion for money management is to bet 1/200th of your bank.
Adjusted up or down at the beginning of each new day.
This is ideal for multi system betting.
This will keep ones bets in perspective to bank available without have to worry about heart attacks down the line.

The 1:200 ratio is done this way, to smooth out the volatile, percentage up & down swings, this plan can have, if working to a lower ratio.

With any sort of win only betting, there will be times where 20 outs in a row will happen, but that's just part of the process of punting & using above staking plan will keep things in balance and make a punter bet with a lot more confidence because the "what if" question, has been addressed.

This "what if" question is the No.1 reason why punters lose lots of money, because they fail to address this question at the beginning of their punting activities.

The 20 outs part of punting, is where most progressive staking plans get ripped apart.
More money is lost using progressive staking plans than any selection plan ever did, so be prepared if progression's are being used.

With your system selections, a suggestion that can work well...
.Win only if paying $7.90 & less.

.Place only if paying $8.00+
an alternative to this is to bet 1w x 6plc on these $8.00 shots.

This 1x6 ratio is worked out by dividing the amount of race outlay by a 7th for the win part , then multiply the 7th x 6 for the place component.
Example.
$11 to be bet on this next race.
7th of $11.00 = 1.57 win bet
1.57x6 = 9.42 plc bet

These fractional amounts can be done on Betfair if using BetTraderPro betting application tool. (Free) or similar other tools which cost money but can well worth it .

Once one starts using Betfair , one will wonder why anyone bets with the TAB when the prices are nearly always less than Betfair.

Cheers.

[crash]

"one will wonder why anyone bets with the TAB when the prices are nearly always less than Betfair".


Correct me if I'm wrong Bagman, the problem with betfair is longshot prices offered [$8 and up to bet not lay] are woeful compared to TAB or Bookie[?] Layers are very cautious in this area, especially during weekdays when I [and others] chase these longshots.

For example, At Mornington yesterday I picked up 16/1w on STATELY DASH in r8 and 10/1w on SWEET TALKING GUY in r9 [sadly, I didn't bet the running double]. I very much doubt I would have got these prices on Betfair[?]

[crazyjord]

Yesterday was a bit better.


MR
3-5 L
5-1 P 1.80
7-6 L

PR
4-9 W 5.10 1.80
6-1 P 1.20

BR
8-3 W 3.70 1.70

SR
4-4 P 2.10
5-13 W 4.50 1.70
6-3 L

CR
7-3 L
8-10 L

Today's
SR
2-2
3-3
6-7

AR
2-14
4-9
5-4
6-5
7-4

BR

2-6
5-7
8-2

If you notice adelaide has 4 races in a row,i never personally liked backing more than 2 races in a row because the chance of them all winning would be very slim.
If the system selects them i suppose you have to back them.
I know you only need 1 of them to win to cover the other's if they lose but what are your thoughts.
Do your systems have a runner in every race at some meetings?
How many winner's in a row have you had at a single meeting?

[AngryPixie]

If you notice adelaide has 4 races in a row,i never personally liked backing more than 2 races in a row because the chance of them all winning would be very slim.
If the system selects them i suppose you have to back them.
I know you only need 1 of them to win to cover the other's if they lose but what are your thoughts.
Do your systems have a runner in every race at some meetings?
How many winner's in a row have you had at a single meeting?Huh?? http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/confused.gif

Crazy that logic really doesn't make sense. The result of one race has no effect on the result of another. That's the Gamblers Fallacy. ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamblers_fallacy

[stugots]

"one will wonder why anyone bets with the TAB when the prices are nearly always less than Betfair".


Correct me if I'm wrong Bagman, the problem with betfair is longshot prices offered [$8 and up to bet not lay] are woeful compared to TAB or Bookie[?] Layers are very cautious in this area, especially during weekdays when I [and others] chase these longshots.

For example, At Mornington yesterday I picked up 16/1w on STATELY DASH in r8 and 10/1w on SWEET TALKING GUY in r9 [sadly, I didn't bet the running double]. I very much doubt I would have got these prices on Betfair[?]

been using betfair for > 18 months now & nearly always secure higher divs about the longshots

would have thought you could have got around 20's & 12's+ respectively without too much trouble

[Shaun]

I had a look at those races on betfair
Stately Dash $16.50 best TAB price $15
Sweet Talking Guy $11 best TAB price was $9.50

Once you deduct the 5% commission the prices were
$14.72
$9.50

I still find the longer priced runners better value with betfair, the shorter priced runners are at times lower than you could have got from a bookie.

The Tab for some is the only option if you are a winner because trying to get the bookies to take your bets or getting them matched on betfair midweek can be a problem at times.

Multiple Tab accounts is a good option, no problems getting set you get a middle price and you can spread your money around so as not to effect the price to much.

[crazyjord]

Huh?? http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/confused.gif

[QUOTE]
Crazy that logic really doesn't make sense. The result of one race has no effect on the result of another. That's the Gamblers Fallacy. ;)

The way i see it is with the coin toss you have a 50% chance on landing heads or tails which is pretty good odds and it would not be that hard to get 4 of either.
But with horse racing your horse is up against a lot more than a 50% chance in a race, and add the hundreds of factors that can determine the horses chances and it makes it a lot harder to pick 4 in a row.
If i tossed a coin 800 times and it came up 4 in a row 10 times i could understand that,but if i selected 200 quaddies with 1 horse in each leg i just couldn't see 10 of them coming in.
Maybe they would i havent tried it,but i just couldnt see it happening:)

[lomaca]

Correct me if I'm wrong Bagman, the problem with betfair is longshot prices offered [$8 and up to bet not lay] are woeful compared to TAB or Bookie[?] Layers are very cautious in this area, especially during weekdays when I [and others] chase these longshots.
I agree Crash, since my selections are mostly long shots, I given Betfair a wide berth.
Apart from the lower odds, my main problem was getting matched, or at the amount I wanted.
Maybe it's different in the UK market but I follow Oz races on the local markets.

[crash]

I agree Crash, since my selections are mostly long shots, I given Betfair a wide berth.
Apart from the lower odds, my main problem was getting matched, or at the amount I wanted.
Maybe it's different in the UK market but I follow Oz races on the local markets.

I had exactly the same problems with betfair during the short period I used it, especially during the week. A lot of stuffing around and ending up with too many no bets.