Variance...or...Non Profitable?

[mathewg]

I have been running a system for over 12 months now and atm it is running @ 4.4% POT, which is great for such a high turnover system, as there has been over 7000 bets. It is purely a market driven bet selection process. But I have done some in-depth analysis over the last few days.

The first on price bands. These are the results:

<$4 1011 bets +$684
$4-$6 2288 bets +$3283
$6-$8 1896 bets +4420
$8-$10 1909 bets -1060

I cap my bets at $10.

Question: Should I cap my bets now @ $8?

The second issue I looked @ is the days I bet on. These are the results:

Sunday 1030 bests +$3215
Monday 459 bets +$858
Tuesday 481 bets -$164
Wednesday 903 bets +$1044
Thursday 790 bets -$1674
Friday 844 bets -$2678
Saturday 2597 bets +$6726

Question: Should I quit Thursday and Friday betting?

Any other thoughts on areas to look at?

[AngryPixie]

Matthew

Over that many trials it's hard to see the $8-$10 price band and Thursday and Friday recovering.

[Mr. Logic]

You have provided an overall POT of 4.4% while the other statistics you have provided are in dollar profits and losses. POT profits and losses would be far more useful. Also knowing whether level staking or chasing losses is involved in the results provided influences how one looks at them.

My view is this is nothing but a statistical variation. There is no logical reason why Thursday or Friday results over the long term - hundreds of thousands of wagers - should be significantly different from Monday. The odds also favour a statistical variation being the reason for a loss in those $10.00 bets.

[mathewg]

I can't come up with a logical reason why Thursday and Friday are down either. But it always seems that I use Saturday purley to make up for the losses on Thursday and Friday. I only level stake, no loss chasing involved at all!! Although I do increase my bets when my "5% Pot" column on the spreadsheet reaches a certian level. So the poor recent performance on those 2 days may just be a result of the increased bets.......maybe?

[AngryPixie]

Matthew, I've observed a similar thing. Over the last few months my approach to laying has become increasingly more market based (as your method here is market based). I don't select anything on Sundays and non-holiday Mondays as these days are for other things, but I was for a while trying to make Friday pay with a similar result to you. My completely unsupported conclusion is that on Friday (and I suspect Monday), the money in the market is not as meaningful as it is on other weekdays. Low class horses, from small and less successful stables in low class, low prizemoney races. My guess is that on these days the money in the market is from less independant and diverse sources and as a result market errors don't balance themselves out.

Interested to see Sunday doing so well for you. Generally low class horses also but being a non-work day for most punters, there's more diversity of opinions in the market.

I'd be interested to see a grid with days of the week on one axis and your price bands on the other. Could be enlightening :)

No for me, Friday is for thinking about Saturday http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

[crash]

Something to consider is that runner form in weekday fields is generally far more unreliable/inconsistent than form for a metro Saturday field's runners, which might explain [to a degree] why more surprise long shots get up during the week than they do in metro Saturday meetings.

This weekday "hows your father" form may well have a negative affect on many systems, especially at typical weekday tracks that get far less money spent on them["hows your father" tracks], than Sat. Metro tracks. So there is two possible negatives for weekday meetings for any system and there are probably others, like those mentioned by Angry Pixie.

[AngryPixie]

I think Crash and I are on the same path here.

the money in the market is not as meaningful as it is on other weekdays.
AKA "How's ya father?" money :D

[mathewg]

Well, you just never know in this game.........3 of my 5 bets this morning have won!! You can never pick it! Maybe I should winge more often.

[AngryPixie]

Well, you just never know in this game.........3 of my 5 bets this morning have won!! You can never pick it! Maybe I should winge more often.
Ah so you've got Kiwi racing in the mix also? Well that's different again, especially the pathetic weekday Betfair pools.

[mathewg]

Pathetic pools for sure, but NZ is turning into a goldmine, not sure why.

But now I have said that it will turn to aaaa for sure!

[Bhagwan]

I would suggest betting win only on the $7.90 shots & less.

Bet place only on the $8.00+ shots..

If you could turn your results into percentages, that would be a huge help in working out where the system is at.

Cheers.

[mathewg]

If you could turn your results into percentages, that would be a huge help in working out where the system is at. <$4 1011 bets +$684 =2.4% POT
$4-$6 2288 bets +$3283 =6.2% POT
$6-$8 1896 bets +4420 =8.4% POT
$8-$10 1909 bets -1060 =-2.75% LOT

Sunday 1030 bests +$3215 =13.3% POT
Monday 459 bets +$858 =7.9% POT
Tuesday 481 bets -$164 =-1.4% POT
Wednesday 903 bets +$1044 =4.9% POT
Thursday 790 bets -$1674 =-8.6% LOT
Friday 844 bets -$2678 =-11.9% LOT
Saturday 2597 bets +$6726 =10.2% POT

I am sure the answer is a pineapple. But I don't think I will change anything, Friday was a good day, and yesterday was a shocker, go figure......lol.

[possie]

From the info you've provided matthewg, I myself would probably just stick to Sat and Sun as it doesn't seem worth the effort to do weekdays. That increases your historical data's POT to around 11-12%.

[jayjones1]

From the info you've provided matthewg, I myself would probably just stick to Sat and Sun as it doesn't seem worth the effort to do weekdays. That increases your historical data's POT to around 11-12%.i stay well away from weekdays nothing but troublehttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1808/t09h0114ppwi/s1.gif

[mathewg]

I am hearing you, I have almost had enough of midweek as well!

[stugots]

i stay well away from weekdays nothing but trouble

I am hearing you, I have almost had enough of midweek as well!


lol, yeh a 'walk in the park' like last saturday are just a license to print money....

give me your average provincial meet any day

[Stix]

It's just another punter-ism...... Don't bet odds-on, don't bet midweek, don't bet on wet tracks, don't bet on horses up weight/class, don't back horses dropping back in distance, Don't bet on maidens/2YO races.....

Every punter has to find things that work for them, but the stats do have a role in backing up the rationale... I find it near on impossible to turn a profit in Sydney - maybe it's more to do with Xanadu's suspisions than my selection methods :eek:

[wesmip1]

Don't bet odds-on, don't bet midweek, don't bet on wet tracks, don't bet on horses up weight/class, don't back horses dropping back in distance, Don't bet on maidens/2YO races.....



You have named all the best places to bet caue a lot of "quality" punters ignore them and they are full of mug punters.

The only issue is having the angle in those sorts of situations to know when to bet and when to wait.

Good Luck

[crash]

One thing about weekday race meetings is that false favorites are easier to spot. Not so easy on Saturdays but they still regularly lose [especially in the big races as we have seen over the last couple of weeks]. Doesn't help a lot though as the possible winners to beat them is usually many of the other runners [often a dart job or a fluke choice].

Shorty backers are probably better off sticking to Sat. but weekdays for form students can be a goldmine for win or place punters looking for very good odds. I tend to stick with the last 4 races at a meeting and specialize on Victoria racing, my home state. Specializing helps a lot.

There are many roads to winning [and even more to losing]. Some suit and some don't, depending on the punter. There is no 'best' way or rules to punt as every punter is different.