Same horse and race number

[crazyjord]

Does anyone know the percentage of winners ?

eg:horse number 4 race 4, number 7 race 7

I think i read somewhere it's only 3%

[Bhagwan]

This is the mathematical theoretical calculation assuming they have all equal chance of winning.
We are not looking at its positional ranking in the market or its price.

Lets assume a 10 horse race = 10% random chance of winning

Lets assume horse is in Race 4, Horse No.4 with 10 runners. = 10% random chance of winning.
Calculation
.10 x .10 = .01 x 100 = 1% chance of winning.

This is assuming they have all equal chance over 100 races.
But as we know , this is not the case in horse racing .
No.1 ranked in the market out performs No.10 ranked in the market , but at what price & that is the difference.

If one wished to create a lay plan around this idea , it might be a strong point to make the price range between say $3.80 - 11.00
You shouldn't get bit too often in this price band.

Staking to Bank
Bet 1% if $3.80-5.50
Bet .50% if 5.60-11.00



Cheers

[darkydog2002]

I remember this mad publican in Charters Towers buying this "cant lose " system based on a similar wacky line.

TAB 1 = Must have won LS

TAB 2 = Must have ran 2nd LS

etc etc

As I recall his Pub burnt down a year later but well insured.Ho Ho.

Cheers.
darky

[jayjones1]

I remember this mad publican in Charters Towers buying this "cant lose " system based on a similar wacky line.

TAB 1 = Must have won LS

TAB 2 = Must have ran 2nd LS

etc etc

As I recall his Pub burnt down a year later but well insured.Ho Ho.

Cheers.
darkyha poor guy, dont like the system http://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1808/t09h0114ppwi/s1.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/744/t09h0114ppwi/s1.gifhttp://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/2773/t09h0114ppwi/s1.gif

[partypooper]

I have no stats BUT I suspect that TAB No 1 + DRAWN 1 , no 2 drawn 2 etc would have a much better result????? of course that would be in handicap races.

[Stix]

System: Horse X Race X
R1 Horse 1 - 22.3% - LOT 18%
R2 Horse 2 - 16.5% - LOT 19%
R3 Horse 3 - 13.5% - LOT 23%
R4 Horse 4 - 12.4% - LOT 21%
R5 Horse 5 - 10.3% - LOT 30%
R6 Horse 6 - 10.2% - LOT 15%
R7 Horse 7 - 9.1% - LOT 15%
R8 Horse 8 - 7.9% - LOT 33%
R9 Horse 9 - 7.5% - LOT 32%
R10 Horse 10 - 6.5% - LOT 1%
>R10 >Horse 10 - 0% - LOT 100%

System: Race X Barrier X
Horse 1 Barrier 1 - 19.8% - LOT 18%
Horse 2 Barrier 2 - 16.9% - LOT 11%
Horse 3 Barrier 3 - 13.1% - LOT 32%
Horse 4 Barrier 4 - 11.5% - LOT 36%
Horse 5 Barrier 5 - 9.4% - LOT 29%
Horse 6 Barrier 6 - 10.2% - LOT 15%
Horse 7 Barrier 7 - 8.6% - LOT 23%
Horse 8 Barrier 8 - 6.0% - LOT 39%
Horse 9 Barrier 9 - 5.4% - LOT 34%
Horse 10 Barrier 10 - 5.5% - LOT 30%

[partypooper]

Thanks STIX, another goose comes crashing down with a sickening thud! I presume the second lot was Handicaps only?

But actually what I meant was Horse no1, drawn No 1, horse no 2, drawn no2 etc. working on the principle that top of the handicap + lower draw MAY have an advantage???

[Stix]

Thanks STIX, another goose comes crashing down with a sickening thud! I presume the second lot was Handicaps only?

But actually what I meant was Horse no1, drawn No 1, horse no 2, drawn no2 etc. working on the principle that top of the handicap + lower draw MAY have an advantage???Handicap races only......

First one is Horse #1 running in race #1 etc

Second one is Horse #1 jumping from Barrier #1 etc (isn't this what you meant?)

[Stix]

System: Horse X Race X
R1 Horse 1 - 22.3% - LOT 18%
R2 Horse 2 - 16.5% - LOT 19%
R3 Horse 3 - 13.5% - LOT 23%
R4 Horse 4 - 12.4% - LOT 21%
R5 Horse 5 - 10.3% - LOT 30%
R6 Horse 6 - 10.2% - LOT 15%
R7 Horse 7 - 9.1% - LOT 15%
R8 Horse 8 - 7.9% - LOT 33%
R9 Horse 9 - 7.5% - LOT 32%
R10 Horse 10 - 6.5% - LOT 1%
>R10 >Horse 10 - 0% - LOT 100%

System: Race X Barrier X
Horse 1 Barrier 1 - 19.8% - LOT 18%
Horse 2 Barrier 2 - 16.9% - LOT 11%
Horse 3 Barrier 3 - 13.1% - LOT 32%
Horse 4 Barrier 4 - 11.5% - LOT 36%
Horse 5 Barrier 5 - 9.4% - LOT 29%
Horse 6 Barrier 6 - 10.2% - LOT 15%
Horse 7 Barrier 7 - 8.6% - LOT 23%
Horse 8 Barrier 8 - 6.0% - LOT 39%
Horse 9 Barrier 9 - 5.4% - LOT 34%
Horse 10 Barrier 10 - 5.5% - LOT 30%System: Race X Barrier X should read System: Horse X Barrier X

......was a typo!

[partypooper]

STIX, nah it was me another seniors moment I think hee hee!

[Bhagwan]

Well done Stix.

Nice piece of research.

You have just discovered the greatest lay plan in the history of the Universe.

Bet the more appealing stats to 3% liability to bank to fall over.

If more than 1 that qualify, take the shorter price.

[partypooper]

is it REALLY as easy as THAT Bhagwan???????

[darkydog2002]

Hey Bhagwan,
Amother great LAY idea is to buy ANY commercial racing system and LAY the selections.Ho Ho.

Cheers.
darky.

[Stix]

Hey Bhagwan,
Amother great LAY idea is to buy ANY commercial racing system and LAY the selections.Ho Ho.

Cheers.
darky.Seconded.....!