There are going to kick our but !!!

[Tab Hunter]

"And take our Cup"

This race is a lot harder than previous years. Thank heavens Northerly isn't there to confuse it more. The Australian horses have a fat chance in hell of winning, besides there are only a handfull that will make the field. The best of them being Grey Song, and maybe Rain Gauge. I recon the raiders are a special this year, with the only dangers the Kiwi's, again. The fact that Oliver, and Paddy Payne has jumped aboard the OS horses says something. We don't have enough staying form in Australia to truely be confident in any of our horses. We all forget one thing. All horses can run 2 miles, but some run it faster than others. You either get the ability by being something out of the box, like Saintly, or from breeding, or from practice. These OS horses run around in these races all the time, and they are better this year than previous. Goldophin and Weld have done it before, and guess what? They are going to do it again... A few of them are handicapped right up there, and lucky for that. At least we can assess the likes of Vinnie and Jardines as fairly weighted. But what about Media Puzzle? 52.5, he is a leg in. It's different this year. Normally they come here and are first up after a spell, and all but win the race. Media Puzzle ran a record 2500, and Beekeeper on 53 after coming home like a train in the Caulfield Cup. What about Hatha Anna being nominated for the MacKinnon. These preperations are unheard of, and they really have their act together. Not even the great Bart can do anything about this one. So take a photo of our Cup if your at Flemington on Tuesday, because "she's a gonna". It will either come back next year after being tainted with warm beer, or it will have an arabic inscription on it!

[INTUITIVE]

I think you are right and maybe even trifecta it. They have the experience, the form and as you said, even the jockeys even though it now remains to be seen that Damien rides, He may not because of the passing of his brother.

To Tabhunter:I cannot agree with your assessment re melbourne cup!You have been sucked in,like so many others.Just for the record,Godolphin has NOT done it before.They have finished second twice,with Central Park and last year with Give the Slip.It is interesting to note that neither of these horses were the stables favoured runners,both were roughies actually.It is also interesting to note that both were ridden aggressively in a frontrunning position by Frankie Dettori!Also,just for the record,Vintage Crop is the only import to win the race in 140 years!!These imports don't run over 2 miles allthe time either.Are you also aware that when Vinnie Roe lines up on Tuesday,that it will be his first race in 2 months?Do you want to concede him the race over the gruelling Flemington 2 miles?Media Puzzle won the Geelong Cup,fair enough,but when you look at those that finished behind him,wouldn't you have to say that to have any chance on Tuesday next week,he had to??These imports are unknown quantities to me,and I will not get sucked in like I did years ago with Double Trigger and also another one called Oscar Schindler,who,if you were to believe all the experts in the media,was supposedly "20 lengths better than any of our stayers!!!!"He ran nearer to last than first,so did the other one!!! I do agree that on paper the imports appear to have their best chance ever,especially they look like having about a third of the field running for them!!My only advice to you and any serious punter is do not concede them the race,it is never over till the fat lady sings!!Consider the travel they have had to endure just to get here,time in quarantine etc.etc.THe different track,different jockeys,different riding styles etc.They are used to soft tracks in europe,the hard tracks we have here don't suit them,they tend to jar up and won't stretch out and race truly,because it hurts their feet!!Every one of the imports trainers is praying for rain!!What does that tell you??Seeing how the VRC is sucking up to them,they will most likely give the track a heap of water the night before!!!Come on Aussie come on!!

[Mr. Logic]

There is one huge difference this year. Where are our quality horses in the Cup? In recent years we've had horses like Might And Power and Ethereal going around well weighted. Now we have Rain Gauge. It just doesn't rate compared to the horses that have won the Cup in recent years and the European horses.

[releasethemules]

I agree with angel416. Overseas raiders come over here with huge wraps, but things are always different when they get to our tracks. The raiders are not a good thing.

[Tab Hunter]

angel416, I figure I know which side you are on, and I have heard it all before. You are entitled to your opinion, and what you say is correct. But things are different this year. We have heard that before too. I'm all for the "come on Ossie Come on" thing... and allow me to be the mug who gets sucked in by the media hype... Do you really think that regardless of the field Media Puzzle flogged,that the race time is to be disregarded as well? Are you at all interested in the fact that in previous years, they participated with OS jockeys, but this year our best have jumped aboard? Regarding Vinnie Roe not have had a run in 2 months is quite common. It is not the type of preparation we prefer, but it works ok with their training methods. Besides, he is probably the one raider that the handicapper has got right, being 0.5 Kg over weight for age. I think there are better propositions than him amongst the OS and Kiwi horses. What I find difficult to understand is what you say about them. Goldophin nearly stole the race twice in the last 2 years, and has 3 runners this year, and you are laying them? I would be interested to see your assessment of the race angel416... It's a funny thing regarding the stable favoured runners you mentioned. Now that is hype. Do you really think they would put Frankie Dettori on a donkey that had no chance in the race? Why do you think they put him on? Could it be the same reason that Oliver and Paddy got sucked in too? They are very astute when they speak to the media these trainers. Of course they just as confussed as we are when it comes to running in this great race. But let me re-assure you, they are not here for the global miles, and as you say angel416, "It's not over to the fat lady sings", but for mine, she is already signing autograghs!

PS: FYI angel416

Seven imports have won the Melbourne Cup.

1910 Comedy King
1924 Backwood
1980 Beldale Ball
1986 At Talaq
1990 Kingston Rule
1993 Vintage Crop
1994 Jeune - First Northern Hemisphere trained winner.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Tab Hunter on 2002-10-30 13:48 ]</font>

[Equine Investor]

Let's not get aggressive with this debate - My opinion is that we just don't have the class to combat the raiders this year. It's true that hype has followed many Overseas entrants and horses like Oscar Schindler greatly disappointed. Look more towards horses who have proven to be competitive over the distance but are well weighted.

Overseas horses have not disappointed, we just followed the hype to the wrong one's - look at the placegetters for example who on more than one occasion nearly pinched it and this year without Northerly what's left?
I'd like to see some outstanding runs on Saturday before I would consider any of ours a real chance.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-30 14:31 ]</font>

As I've managed to give the kiss of death to many good chances these past 3 weeks, this may be good news those supporting aussie horses.

Very rarely does a horse outside the top 6 in the betting market win. Therefore I rate the following as being the prime winning chances. Vinnie Roe, Media Puzzle, Pugin, Beekeeper, Distinctly Secret, Rain Gauge.

This still leaves several o/s and kiwi horses to worry about.

Remember, magic happens, just ask the connections and followers of "Brew".

tabhunter,I am in agreeance with EI,I never intended this debate to become agressive!The 7 imports you quote as winning the Cup,bar Vintage Crop were all trained here.Of the 8 imports running only two look like being ridden by our jockeys.Paddy Payne would not be riding an import if Northerly had run,which means only Ollie would be riding one!I would like to quote something that kiwi trainer Mark Walker(Distinctly Secret)had to say in today's Courier Mail..quote:"I went to England and Ireland 3 years ago and had a look at their racing and training.They run in Group 1 races sometimes with only 7 or 8 runners and the form is protected to retain their stud value.Most of the training is done in a straight line.Some of these horses are in for a shock when they get to the Cup with a full field and getting bumped and knocked around.Vinnie obviously comes with a good record,but he has to give Distinctly Secret 7.5 kgs.That's a huge advantage at 3200 metres.End quote.Mate,you are entitled to your opinion as I am to mine,so let's agree to disagree,ok?As to my assessment,I will post my final thoughts and selections on Monday.Can you do the same?Then on Wednesday we can either toast each other,or cry together!!!Please your top 4 selections.Cheers,

[Tab Hunter]

Fair enough angel416, I promise no agro here. I am very passionate and sometime come across aggressive. No trouble intended. I agree Vinnie has a task, and he won't be in my top 8. At this stage I like in order:

MEDIA PUZZLE
PUGIN
HATHA ANNA
DISTINCTLY SECRET
GREY SONG
JARDINES LOOKOUT
PRIZED GEM
MAGUIRE
BEEKEEPER
RAIN GAUGE
VINNIE ROE
CYCLADES
DALIAPOUR

Have to re-assess after Saturday of course.
Cheers...:wink:

[pharlap]

just putting in my two bobs worth I dont think the raiders will run a drum unless it pours so dont waste your hard earned cash rain guage for mine.

[Tab Hunter]

You know, it's a funny thing pharlap, a mate of mine is also hot on Rain Gauge. I don't doubt him, he ran well last year , and fantastic last start. Just don't think he can win! Just think he is the best, along with Grey Song, of an ordinary bunch of Ossie competitors this year. I don't want these raiders to take our cup, as much as you don't. But I don't think our horses are as tough this year. I love Rain Gauge, but he's the best we got! We will probably put him in our top 5 for the first four, but I would prefer Grey Song. Still, it is not only up to me. I do have to respect my fellow punters. Love the way he came home in the Caulfield Cup though.

[pharlap]

respect your fellow punters its there cash and all the mug punters on cup day we are trying to beat for profit especially in the exotic bets cheers.

[osulldj]

Distinctly Secret appeals to me as the best hope of the Aussies. Should have been right in the finish of the Caulfield Cup if it wasn't for having a run closed between horses...and still only finished a length away from Northerly.

I will be watching him very closely in the Mackinnon on Saturday.

In saying that, the Melbourne Cup is always a poor betting race for punters...it's hard enough to line up form and obtain value in our normal races let alone one with so many uncertain variables.

Punting is about making money...cold and calculated decision making. If this race wasn't the Melbourne Cup, you have to ask yourself if you would even consider having a bet? 24 runners over 3200m, many untried at the distance, all the favoured runners are imports that historically have a very poor record.

Isn't it ironic that the largest tote pools of the year exist on the race where it is hardest to pick the winner?

If you must have a bet, I would suggest you try and strike an exotic...the pools will be full on mugs money, punters who have taken simple box trifectas and quinellas...mystery bets etc. etc. That is where the best opportunity for value lies.

[Mark]

Frankie wasn't on the 2nd horse last year.

:smile:

[thekey]

A question for my learned friends:

What was the last horse to win a Melbourne Cup having previously started but not won?

[BettyBoop]

The Barb ?

[Tab Hunter]

That's right Mark. Frankie was on the second placegetter in 1999, Central Park @ 50/1. Richard Hills road Give The Slip last year @ 30/1. This year Dettori is on Pugin, and Hills is on Hatha Anna. Since both hoops rated their earlier mounts so well, we of course will only get a fraction of those odds. It's interesting to note that Pugin is a bold frontrunner. So, given that he draws reasonable, I suggest we can expect the pace on from the start to finish. Should make for a true staying contest. I think another interesting fact regarding the overseas bred horses is their record thus far. As has been mentioned by a lot of posters, most are full of hype, and run disappointing races. That is very true. But there is usually 1 or 2 of them that do run well, and I guess our task is to work out which ones they are this year. Results for the last 12 years for overseas bred horses, excluding the Kiwi's are:

2001 2ND GIVE THE SLIP (ENG)
2000 5TH ARCTIC OWL (ENG)
1999 2ND CENTRAL PARK (ENG)
1998 3RD PERSIAN PUNCH (ENG)
1997 4TH HARBOUR DUES (ENG)
1996 7TH GREY SHOT (ENG)
1995 3RD VINTAGE CROP (IRE)
1994 1ST JEUNE (GB)
1993 1ST VINTAGE CROP (IRE)
1992 NO STARTERS
1991 5TH IVORY WAY (USA)
1990 1ST KINGSTON RULE (USA)
1989 3RD KUDZ (USA)

I agree with you osulldj. The only chance to make decent money in this race is via the multiples, especially the NSW First Four.