Betting systems

[Mike367]

Hi all I've been punting for awhile now, only small stakes so i don't win or loose big. Just a bit of fun.

But I've been getting e-mails from a couple of different people trying to sell me all sorts of systems....

One guy is sending me 1 or 2 emails ever day his name is XXXXXXXXXXX

The systems make all sorts of promises and cost less than $100.00.

Anyone know of a system that really works???

How do you back the fav to place and make a profit???

Thanks,
Mike.

=========================

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[Shaun]

There are systems contained on this forum for free that are better than most for sale at any price, spend the time and use the search features to find some thing you like.

Backing favs for a place is not realy the way to go, you would need a 75% strike rate at best.

[Sportz]

Those systems probably float like a brick and sting like an empty wallet. ;)

[TWOBETS]

Welcome Mike,

Like so many viewers of this wonderful forum, I also have been down the purchased systems road and will simply confirm what most everyone will say. If you're trying to find a system that will pay the bills then I believe you have to find your own edge.

One point that Crash has made is that a system could be "written on the pavement outside Randwick" or something along those lines, and punters still woulndn't follow it because they can't live through the losing runs. Personally I have a different viewpoint and that is most punters who live off their earnings are not using systems with long losing runs. I believe it would make one's income scenario too volatile.

So this leads me to my next point. The market prices are very accurate. Don't be put off by the negative comments of betting on favorites. They are coming from people who haven't found a way to make it work. That doesn't mean that a way is not there. Find a way to spot the dubious favorites and hey presto your in a Roller! It only took me six years............sad really.

[Chrome Prince]

Food for thought...

"Odds on - look on"

Backing all odds on favourites at tote prices you lose 9.99%.
Take top fluctuation and my guess is losing less than 4.99%

Taking Betfair SP is spot on the knocker breakeven and then you pay commission, so you're back to somewhere between -3% and -5%.

What's interesting - highly interesting, is that the most obvious filter increases profit.

Last start winners (odds on) return 7.21% loss
Last start 2nd (odds on) return 10.78% loss
Last start 3rd (odds on) return 18.51% loss
Last start unplaced (odds on) return 11.95% loss

First starters odds on 13.53% loss

You only need to find one additional filter and you can back and lay depending on the rating.

Look for horses that continually get rolled at short prices and lay them, look for horses that continually win at short prices and back them.

You can't go wrong.

As for what you are mentioning, I know of this gentleman, I believe he's been going a while, and there are no good reports about anything he's spruiked.

[Chrome Prince]

So this leads me to my next point. The market prices are very accurate. Don't be put off by the negative comments of betting on favorites. They are coming from people who haven't found a way to make it work.

Pure gold in that statement.
In fact a lot of pros bet in and around very short horses.
Of course there are varied approaches and some tangle with volume bets on exotics and longshots, but you'll find the bulk of them operate around the 4/1and under and have "special" bets on the really short commodities.

At least two well known pros, operate on the shortest horses on the card with one or two extra filters and make a killing.
Let's not forget our friend Partypooper who backs shorties for a place, but gets the best price he can on them and adds a couple of his own filters.

All you need is a very small edge.

[lomaca]

At least two well known pros, operate on the shortest horses on the card with one or two extra filters and make a killing.
Too right CP and may I add, just one simple filter will turn them into a winning proposition. While I do not bet on shorties at all, I made a study of them, and there is money to be made, lots of it, by either backing or laying.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Mike,
If any system comes from South Africa, watch out.
These mobs produce a new system every month.

If that plan starts with the letter "D" it is advised by several review sites that it did not pass their tests.

Beware of any system that claims a limited time frame or you will miss out.
What business invests lots of marketing money, only to cut it short in a willing market.
No system seller is interested in protecting the value in any given market.

If one is interested in any commercial system reviews.
Simple Google the name of the system using Upper & Lower Case letters so it knows that it is a name that it is looking up.
Then print the word "reviews" after its name.
A list of review sites may pop up relating to your request.

Here is a very good review site in Denmark, one may be interested in viewing for live testing of commercial systems. Plus postings from current users.

Google-
horseracingman

[partypooper]

Yes I don't wanna be a "Partypooper" but not all of that is correct......I know!

But Chrome has the "acid" you have to get the best possible price. + goodies

Shaun, almost there BUT, 69% S/R @ ave divi of $1.50c = Retirement +

[Mike367]

Too right CP and may I add, just one simple filter will turn them into a winning proposition. While I do not bet on shorties at all, I made a study of them, and there is money to be made, lots of it, by either backing or laying.
Ok what which simple filter are you talking about? Maybe you could post some details or pm them to me.
Cheers
Mike.

[Mike367]

Yes I don't wanna be a "Partypooper" but not all of that is correct......I know!

But Chrome has the "acid" you have to get the best possible price. + goodies

Shaun, almost there BUT, 69% S/R @ ave divi of $1.50c = Retirement +I'm not really sure what you mean, what are "goodies" and don't say 3 funny men from tv.

Also a "69% S/R @ ave divi of $1.50c = Retirement +" what sort of staking plan would you use to make this work and protect my bank?
Mike.

[Mike367]

There are systems contained on this forum for free that are better than most for sale at any price, spend the time and use the search features to find some thing you like.

Backing favs for a place is not realy the way to go, you would need a 75% strike rate at best.
Well, I was hoping someone would mention one or two that they had some success with, or some to avoid.

Can we mention the names of systems without being censored?

[Mike367]

Welcome Mike,


Find a way to spot the dubious favorites and hey presto your in a Roller! It only took me six years............sad really.
Don't suppose you would like to share?
No? didn't think so lol

[partypooper]

Mike367, By way of a positive reply, I've tried every known staking plan, and at the end of a period of time added up the total number of stakes, divide by the number of bets , apply that figure as level stakes and the result is the same, as for goodies,........ well let's just say that there are many incentives offered by various bookies (outfits) and you can manipulate it to a certain extent, but it's only icing on the cake, you have to have a winning plan in the first place.

Remember that the casino only has a tiny advantage on the roulette wheel but it's a license to print money in the long run.

[lomaca]

Maybe you could post some details or pm them to me.
I'm not sure PM is enabled on this forum, but the filter I referred to, has been mentioned here before, and only needs periodical updating and fine tuning if you have a database. If not, all the info is now available free on racing websites.

[Mike367]

I'm not sure PM is enabled on this forum, but the filter I referred to, has been mentioned here before, and only needs periodical updating and fine tuning if you have a database. If not, all the info is now available free on racing websites.
Ok, well if you or anyone else will share some of their hard earned information with me ,then please email me mjm367@gmail.com

Meanwhile I'll try to find the filter you mean.


Thanks
Mike

[Bhagwan]

Hi Mike
It looks like you are being put through "guess the riddle" my friend.
"They can be a twitchy mob when it comes to a puntin, so don't go round stirren them up cranky like".

Its a riddle to me as to what filter is being suggested here... maybe its a secret riddle .

Jokes aside...
One strong filter which has been mentioned in the forum, is one where we compare the pre-post price (PP) to Bookmakers price.
If bookies price is shorter than PP - strong Back bet
If bookies price is longer than PP - strong Lay bet.

Here's a winning plan that takes discipline to work but it does work.
SR is 45% and 35% POT when I last tested it at level stakes.


NEXT FAV PLAN
The idea is that we target the next live market Fav on Betfair, once we see a Fav get up to win.
In other words we are looking to bet the 2nd winning Fav on the day.

.Follow the Betfair market Fav for each race for each venue.
We do not bet on this Fav. as yet, until one gets up

.Each venue is looked at separately to the others.

.Min 8 races for that venue , otherwise drop that venue from contention.

.Wait for a Fav to get up at that venue within the first 4 races only.
If no winning Fav within those first 4 races, drop that venue for the reset of the day.

.If we see a Fav get up to win within the first 4 races only.
We start betting the next 4 races until we strike a winner, stopping at the first winner or we bomb out on 4 races in a row, at that venue.

.We only bet a max of 4 bets at any one venue.

.Now do the same for all the other venues with 8-10 races.

.Bet 2% of bank. Not reducing.

One can go over past TAB results to get an idea how it has performed in the past.


Use BetTraderPro (Free through Racing Traders)) for placement of minimal bets of 1c+ if one wishes to bet below the Betfair min.

Use this idea on Betfair only.


Cheers.

[Mike367]

Thanks Bhagwan, and everyone else for you help.

I've only used the TAB and don't know anything about Betfair. But I'll soon change that.

The Betfair plan, is that ok to use everyday or just the Sat meetings?

Thanks again,
Mike

[Mike367]

Is betfair online only? You see I work Mon to Fri and every second Sat (during the day), And have no internet at work. All I have is a phone (mobile) and the trusty form guide fron the Herald Sun. Oh I'm in Vic by the way.

I was thinking of backing the Fav, under the following conditions

raced within the past 21 days
Raced over a similar dist previous race
Won at track and distance previously
No more than 15 horses in field
Draw no wider tha barrier #8

I need a plan that suits my limited experence, and where I can get all the information from the form guide.

I don't impulse bet anymore and I've learned not to chase my losses!!
Now for some consistant, if small gains.

Anyway what do you think??
Be honest, I can take a bit of critcism
Cheers Mike

P.S. You may think this is a silly question but what do you guys mean by POT? S/R is strike rate and +/-123 is amount won/lost?, but I don't get POT???
Mike

[partypooper]

Mike367, hey that's an easy one that I can answer. POT means Profit On Turnover. eg. say after a given length of time you have made bets of say $10,000 and are showing $1000 profit, then you have a POT of 10% (most pros so I'm told would be happy with something like that) personally I would LOVE 10% POT, I haven't achieved it long term (yet)

PS. I think your plan to have any chance you would have to bet at least Best Tote+ SP, or at least Top Fluctuation (both readily available)

A couple of filters that you may want to consider is
(a) must have a win in exposed form i.e. last 4 runs (this time in)
(b) a win % of at least 25%

also look closely at restricting the distances (this is a personal preference) say 1200m to 1999m

Good luck!

[Chrome Prince]

Mike,

Not a criticism, but a help.

Your filters actually make more of a loss than backing all favourites without those filters.
I'd suggest looking in other directions for filters than just the obvious one's.

Based on your rules there is a loss of 14.73% at tote prices.
I assumed similar distance to mean +/- 200M.

Quite honestly, you'd be better off picking out the shorter horses on the card and putting ALL your efforts into getting the best possible price you can.

Hope this helps.

[partypooper]

Chrome, yes I didn't have the data but I suspected that @ Tote prices there may be a BIG problem.
I could start to list filters as long as your arm here that may or may not improve that, but as you say the best filter easily would be PRICES! I don't think that was what Mike was wanting to hear but there you go!

[Bhagwan]

Mike.
Here is a simple plan that throws up a 36% SR targeting min price $2.80+

.Target all Pre-Post race Favs

.List all the Favs prices.

.Bet the 2 horses with the 2 shortest price.

.We will end up with 2 horses per venue.

.Do the same for all venues .

. Bet .5% of bank level stakes , adjusted up & down daily.
e.g. $1 / $200 ratio

Take the advice about obtaining best price because you wont get it just using one TAB account.

This plan shows a profit using Betfair targeting a min price of $2.80+.

If just using your local TAB you will be lucky to break even, that's how much the price difference is between the two agencies.

Try & only bet if one can get $2.80+ if possible. Otherwise no bet.

Betbotpro
One can use a tool called Betbotpro to place the bets for you on Betfair at say 15 secs till jump time ,at say a price of 2.80-11.00
Its a Robot that does your betting for you, while you are at work & it is very accurate & simple to use.
It can have stop losses set & max profit set.
It even has its own forum for its members only.

Bets can be as low as .10c

I use this & its a fantastic tool to use , especially if one does not wish to be in front of their PC all day.

It also has a choice of staking plans for win & lay betting.
Comes with a free trial that can be run in simulation mode on the overseas races.

It even has a program that will only place a Lay bet if its Lay price is within 10% of the Back price . (Adjustable percentage)
This stops the program placing a Lay bet that maybe 12.00 where its Back price may be 6.00, very powerful tool.

Covers all countries Dogs , Trots, Horses.

One could literally bet 24 hours a day ,7 days a week.

It is a must have for time saving & value seeking.

Ask yourself a serious question.
Could you honestly sit in front of the PC & let 12 races go bye, before placing a qualifying bet which may present itself.
Betbotpro can & do it 24/7.

Cheers.

[jayjones1]

cheers thanks for your plan
http://c08y1024qmyi129.imageshacknow.info/img/1808/k08w1114mkfo/biggrin.gif

[partypooper]

lots of adverts ey?

[Mike367]

Thanks everone for your help and advise.
I've had a look at a few of the old posts and my head is spinning with the possibilities.

Wow a database!!! What a great tool to have, where can I get one? Please don't tell me I have to spend years making my own.

As for the various systems and filters.... Well it's like going to Woolies for a Pick and Mix!

That Betbotpro tool sounds very interesting, as does the plan you suggested, thank you Bhagwan.

I've heard that the Fav has a S/R of %33, can anyone back that up?

Again, thanks all.
Mike

[Mike367]

I get what you say, but except for ever 2nd Saturday all i have is the form guide from the paper and my phone.
Yes, I know, very limited resources but I have to make the best of it.
I just have to work out which are the best filters, easy. lol
Thanks,
Mike



Mike,

Not a criticism, but a help.

Your filters actually make more of a loss than backing all favourites without those filters.
I'd suggest looking in other directions for filters than just the obvious one's.

Based on your rules there is a loss of 14.73% at tote prices.
I assumed similar distance to mean +/- 200M.

Quite honestly, you'd be better off picking out the shorter horses on the card and putting ALL your efforts into getting the best possible price you can.

Hope this helps.

[partypooper]

Mike367, yes I know what you mean about limited resources and knowledge. but all you need to bet at BEST TOTE + SP or bet at Top Fluctuation is open an account with Sportsbet, (dead easy) you will get a free bet straight away, and you can place your bets by phone, and even that; is a 1800 number (I think) you will be immediately be 5-10% better than betting on the tote, and that could well be THE 5-10%, good luck!

PS I'm sure that Favs winning % overall is about 32-33%, Trotters is about 38-40% (so I'm told) but the odds are always in line i.e. the shorter the price the higher the S/R, but reflected in the lower odds (of course)

PPS my advice if always backing favs would be to bet at Top Fluc. if the pre-post price is say $4 or less other wise bet at best tote. Of course sometimes you will be on the wrong side but overall a definite advantage. Bhagwans idea of fixing your price or no bet; also makes perfect sense but so far I haven't figured out how to do that. (limited computer skills)

[Shaun]

Party,

You have 2 choices for fixing a bet at a price.

1) Bookies will do it over the phone, but i am sure that is only for win betting

2) Use a betting bot like Gruss and then use betfair and set your prices.

Send my a pm on the other place and i will explain a few things if needed

[partypooper]

Shaun, yes I was aware of backing with a bookie with a minimum price stipulation, in fact I've done it with some success, but then the mob I was dealing with decided they would refuse some bets and not others so it killed it.

What I like the sound of is being able to do it mechanically, (i.e. if the price is met you're on if it isn't you're not) so I'll be in touch later......... thanks for that!

[crash]

Lets get this straight ....If your a winner with bookies they will get rid of you by minimizing your betting or your odds. Ditto betting agencies except TAB and Betfair. Bookies and betting agencies want losers, not winners on their books. I don't give a damn what they say.
It's crap. Been there done that. They can crap on all they like but betting agencies just will not tolerate consistent winning punters, so give the plug for Sportsbet going around here and other threads here [or others] a rest for god's sake. It's a joke!

[partypooper]

Crash, sorry you took it as a plug for Sportsbet, they didn't pay me....honest! I did say that Top Fluc was readily available and similar products as best tote also. I was trying to advise a newbie to stay away from the regular totes in the manner that he was betting, which spelt total disaster, at least at best tote he had a chance.

And yes you are correct, in my case I only had a hint of success and the door was closed. I guess the answer is betfair, but I'm darned if I can get the hang of it so far!

[Bhagwan]

Which bit of Betfair don't you get

One suggestion is not to use the Betfair interface, its too cumbersome & slow.
Use BetTraderPro instead to place ones bets.

[Shaun]

Party i know of a program with 30 day free trial then just $13.50 a month, normaly is cheaper but the exchange rates suck, glad i got a 12 month sub a few months back.

[crash]

Crash, sorry you took it as a plug for Sportsbet, they didn't pay me....honest! I did say that Top Fluc was readily available and similar products as best tote also. I was trying to advise a newbie to stay away from the regular totes in the manner that he was betting, which spelt total disaster, at least at best tote he had a chance.

And yes you are correct, in my case I only had a hint of success and the door was closed. I guess the answer is betfair, but I'm darned if I can get the hang of it so far!

Sorry Party, I wasn't zeroing in on anyone or writing down names. Just that lately I seem to be reading a lot of recommendations to use Sportsbet. Why just Sportsbet as it's not the only agency that offers top fluc or best tote?

Betfair too of course gets plugged to death [even more so], but that I can understand as it does have some genuine advantages, but not for all types of punters though. Everything has swings and slides.

Cheers mate.

[stugots]

so i guess its thanks god for the tab, now thats something i don't say very often!

[crash]

Even the Plague had it's up side. It decimated the population and the workforce. All workers after it bargained for much higher wages and improved their lot in life!

[Chrome Prince]

What's wrong with IAS?
Personally, Betfair is the go for me.

[stugots]

I use 3 Chrome - Unitab, BF & IAS - & find IAS marginally returns better than Unitab & Betfair outdoes both

I find there is something reassuring about making a quid on the TAB tho..

[Shaun]

Provincial and Country meetings i don't think it matter who you use after CentreRacing has axed the C-Tote option but metro tracks Sportsbet offer best of 3 or SP, IAS offer Superprice that is best of only 2 Tabs

[Mike367]

From what I've read recently, of your posts, in this thread and others. It seems that betfair is the way to go, but I don't like that they double dip!
When one losses they take all the bet, yes?
Yet when one wins they also take a 5% commission.

You say they pay better odds than the TAB, anyone have an estimate of just how much more they pay?

I find the TAB phone account easy and convinent, does Betfair have a phone account?
As Party says I'm a newbie and appreciate all the help I get.

[crash]

I now use Stab TAB for convenience mostly. Cash in/cash out at any TAB pub agency. I still have an IAS account and a Betfair account which I use very little now as I no longer bet the amounts I used too. Punting has become a recreational pleasure for me now and I'm no longer try to pay for a Rolla from betting.

Good prices are available on Betfair but sometimes the price is less than TAB and unless your propped up in front of a computer your stuffed. Another disadvantage with all or any agency is leaving winnings in the account [their not winning unless spent elsewhere]. No such problem with a TAB account as cash out is easy as pie. Like I said before, it's all swings and slides and depends on what suits.

[Mike367]

Thanks Crash, I was starting to think no one used the TAB. Like you I find it easy to use and convenient.


Who else uses the TAB???

Cheers,
Mike.

[AngryPixie]

From what I've read recently, of your posts, in this thread and others. It seems that betfair is the way to go, but I don't like that they double dip!
When one losses they take all the bet, yes?
Yet when one wins they also take a 5% commission.

Mike, Betfair is an exchange so you're betting against other punters not the company. They take a sliding maximum 5% commission from the winner of the wager and yes the loser does their dough.

[Merriguy]

As do all TABs, bookmakers, etc.!!!

[partypooper]

Crash, just to save me looking it up myself does the TAB (Supertab) charge for a CC deposit??

[Mark]

I've never been charged to deposit, never had any problems withdrawing, and never been charged to withdraw. All with Betfair.

[crash]

Crash, just to save me looking it up myself does the TAB (Supertab) charge for a CC deposit??

No fees for CC deposits for TAB accounts. I think they did have fees at one stage but not now. You cannot deposit from a CC on a standard account but it's easy to apply for a CC deposit ability for your account.

[partypooper]

Crash, Ta! good stuff!