Staking plan

[Mike367]

Hello everone,
I've stumbled across a sysytem that shows a S/R of 38% for the win and 72% for the place, (not the system of our discussion, Punter).
This is for the past 6 months with a max win of $4.00 and run of 7 outs straight.

Sorry I don't have a $ amount for the avg return, wish I did.

My bank is of a conservative size (don't bet what you can't loose), so I'm willing to take higher risks untill it's a little larger. Then I'll change plans, got to be adaptable, yes.

Any advise on a staking plan would be very welcome, I have my own ideas ofcourse, but I need to learn more.

Thanks,
Mike.

P.S. please dont advise me to search the old posts of this wonderfull forum, as my kids (2 out of 3 are teenagers) tend to monopolize my computer. Time is a bit of an issue.
Mike.

[thorns]

I guess the first question is does it make a level stakes profit? That should be the first concern. If it doesnt make a level stakes profit, you will wventually loose. Otherwise some options could be the retirement staking plan, or the 6 point divisor plan, both work pretty well, and you can add in saftey brales if the stakes start to get out of control. For the retirement plan check out this link

http://www.grandstand.com.au/master.htm?http://www.grandstand.com.au/retirement.html

and heres one for the six point divisor

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=9181&highlight=point+divisor


One other thing to remember is that with a SR of 38%, you will eventually hit a run of outs probably close to 20. So you need to be aware of this possibility.


Hopefuly that gives you something to start with.

Cheers
Paul

[crash]

'Up to' $4 the win provides no info. as to profitability ...like POT.

Proven staking plans are a flat bet or % of bank. If that staking can't make a profit, progressive staking plans chasing loses long term won't work. They are regularly promoted [and often for a price] to those who don't what to know about the brutal maths. of wagering that is readily available in many mathematician sites on the web.

Betting more after a loss or a win just means you are betting more overall. Nothing 'progressive' about it.

[Mike367]

I know there is little info regarding $ returns. You see my notes are just that, hand written notes on paper and form guides from the past 9 ish months.
I marked my selections and the result, win or place. I should have kept a note of winnings, and I could get results from TAB website. That would take a few hours, is it worth it?

Flat bet or % of bank plans are the way to go eh? Something to look into.
Cheers,
Mike.


'Up to' $4 the win provides no info. as to profitability ...like POT.

Proven staking plans are a flat bet or % of bank. If that staking can't make a profit, progressive staking plans chasing loses long term won't work. They are regularly promoted [and often for a price] to those who don't what to know about the brutal maths. of wagering that is readily available in many mathematician sites on the web.

Betting more after a loss or a win just means you are betting more overall. Nothing 'progressive' about it.

[stugots]

That would take a few hours, is it worth it?

absolutely, how else will you know if what you are planning to undertake has merit or not?

a rough quote from something i was watching recently - "most gamblers are a.n.a.l. when it comes to keeping records"

& being one i can attest to the truth in that statement

[Mike367]

Thanks for the links, mate.
Mike

I guess the first question is does it make a level stakes profit? That should be the first concern. If it doesnt make a level stakes profit, you will wventually loose. Otherwise some options could be the retirement staking plan, or the 6 point divisor plan, both work pretty well, and you can add in saftey brales if the stakes start to get out of control. For the retirement plan check out this link

http://www.grandstand.com.au/master.htm?http://www.grandstand.com.au/retirement.html

and heres one for the six point divisor

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=9181&highlight=point+divisor


One other thing to remember is that with a SR of 38%, you will eventually hit a run of outs probably close to 20. So you need to be aware of this possibility.


Hopefuly that gives you something to start with.

Cheers
Paul

[partypooper]

DITTO, absolutely essential in fact. for more than one reason in fact you need to list all bets in date order. then in the next 8 columns across like so, (I'm presuming on a spreadsheet) Supertab Win, Supertab Place, NSW Win, NSW place, Unitab Win, Unitab place, then column 7= SP, and 8 =Top Fluctuation.

Set it up so that it adds up automatically (i.e. sum=( x+z) etc so that you can see at a glance where you will be better off BEST TOTE +SP or Top Fluc etc etc

[Mike367]

Hey guys I was only joking about it beening worth it.

Wher is the best place for me to get the stats?

Is there a database somewhere I can use?
Maybe I can download one???

Thanks,
Mike.

[Mike367]

Hi Party, do me a favour and explain the following:

The difference between my local TAB(Vic), Supertab, Unitab?

Topfluc?

SP?

Don't forget I'm still learning.
Thanks for your patience,
Mike.


DITTO, absolutely essential in fact. for more than one reason in fact you need to list all bets in date order. then in the next 8 columns across like so, (I'm presuming on a spreadsheet) Supertab Win, Supertab Place, NSW Win, NSW place, Unitab Win, Unitab place, then column 7= SP, and 8 =Top Fluctuation.

Set it up so that it adds up automatically (i.e. sum=( x+z) etc so that you can see at a glance where you will be better off BEST TOTE +SP or Top Fluc etc etc

[partypooper]

Mike367, good question, Supertab (my local WA -Tab) I think includes Vic-Tab (I could easily be wrong), Unitab, well that's NT, and NSW Tab a seperate one, but that's what I understand to called the *3* TABS.

SP is of course the official STARTING PRICE, (which can and does sometimes beat all 3 totes) and Top Fluctuation is the BEST price bet on the course in the Bookmakers Ring.

So if you place your bet at Top Fluc, and say your horse opened at 4-1, but then shortened to 2-1, you are still payed out at 4-1, most of the bookies and exchanges will accept bets at Top Fluc, and it's particularly effective with shorter prices say up to $4 (real or pre-post)

Hope that explains it a bit?

PS. Worth remembering that the reason they will accept bets at Top Fluc is that they reckon that they can STILL beat you, even at Top Fluc, (they are usually correct as well hahah!)

in other words if you took all Top Fluc prices bet in a particular race, it would still add up to maybe 115%-120%, so there you go!

[Mike367]

Thank very much for that party, it clears things up nicely.


Am I right in thinking that if I make my selections from the form guide but place my bets at Top Fluc, theres a good chance I'll get better odds?
Better than the local Tab at least.

But it all a moot point. As I don't have access to the internet after 6.30am most days, unless they (Betfair, Sportsbet etc etc) have a ph account I can use.

Its the Tab untill I can stop working so much.

Thanks,
Mike.

[jayjones1]

Thank very much for that party, it clears things up nicely.


Am I right in thinking that if I make my selections from the form guide but place my bets at Top Fluc, theres a good chance I'll get better odds?
Better than the local Tab at least.

But it all a moot point. As I don't have access to the internet after 6.30am most days, unless they (Betfair, Sportsbet etc etc) have a ph account I can use.

Its the Tab untill I can stop working so much.

Thanks,
Mike.i tend to stay away from the tab iasbet and sportsbook are pretty good
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