Mechanical Systems

[goldcoast]

An interesting comment on another thread whether a system can be profitable with mechanical rules only. After reading some forums getting a basic understanding of some statistics I have been manually testing the below theory with small POT on level stakes.

The rules are:
100 or 99 raters Unitab only (approx. 37% winners)
First 3 in prepost only after scratchings (racingnpost)
Max 2 horses per race.

Level stakes.

Gives a punter a quite few bets with steady stream of winners. As I've been doing this for a few weeks manually there isn't alot of data to confirm but it is showing positve POT at the moment after approx 300 bets. I've been testing everyday for interest.

Cheers

[Shaun]

I would like someone with a database to test this, spounds interesting i don't think Racecenses has the unitab ratings in them.

Is the racingpost online or only paper?

[goldcoast]

Sorry Shaun,

should have read racingnsports & online..

[Shaun]

That 37% strike rate is that all selections, i was having a look at todays and in some races there is just 1 selection and in some there are 3 so the max is 2 selections or no race correct.

I was using the Way2bet pre post prices i guess most pre post prices are the same.

[goldcoast]

37% is quoted in another thread, and as I read is based on all 100/99 raters. You will find a lot of races with more than 2 horses but the most you will get is 3 as the prepost rule will come into play and yes if more than 2 no bet.

Hope that clears things up.

[Shaun]

You could in fact have more than 3 as the form i used in a couple of races had 5 in the first 3 pre post, but saying that you would also need a lot of 100/99 in that race.


This all means nothing realy as if you can't get it to 2 selections no bet, this is a golden rule i think because a lot of the selections were favs but a few were not, this also produced a $15 winner at sandown.

[goldcoast]

"You could in fact have more than 3 as the form i used in a couple of races had 5 in the first 3 pre post, but saying that you would also need a lot of 100/99 in that race."

Yes I agree and I actually include the first three plus any equals.


Today's results: Unitab prices.

38 Bets
13 Winners
34% SR
14.70 Profit - 1 unit
39% POT

There was a $15 winner. Hopefully there is something in this. If not at least you can have a fun day at the races and have a few winners..
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[partypooper]

Yes, I give the thumbs up on this one. I have been advocating for along time to START at the top Rater, (I guess this could extended to the second top rater i.e.99)

And THEN apply your filters, I think this has merit!

[michaelg]

Goldcoast,

I have checked yesterday's results using the Telegraph pre-post market, and I also deleted races that had 7 or less starters because I'm also interested in Place betting.

There were 13 winners from 33 selections for a return of $54.30 using Unitab divvies. Without the $15.30 winner the method would have shown a POT of 21.8%.

With Place betting there were 25 placegetters for a return of $43.20 which is a 75% strike rate and a POT of 30.9%.

If anyone's interested I'll hopefully be able to list today's selections before midday.

[AngryPixie]

I fear the $15 winner will be more the exception than the rule given that was a compressed market in UniTAB ratings terms (5 points covering 10 of the 11 horse field). :(

[michaelg]

I've now looked at last Thursday's results.

There were 17 selections for 8 winners (the largest divvy was $8.00) for a return of $32.10, and 14 placegetters for a return of $21.40.

[thorns]

Now you should delete the rules to stop it being sold by somebody from the gold coast :P

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

CANTERBURY
Race 2 no.2
Race 3 no.5
Race 5 no.6
Race 6 no.2

BALLARAT
Race 1 no.7
Rrace 2 no.10
Race 4 no.6
Race 7 no.3
Race 8 no.12

PORT LINCOLN
Race 2 no.3
Race 4 no.7
race 6 no.8
Race 8 nos. 3 and 4

MUSWELLBROOK
Race 1 no.7
Race 2 no.7
Race 3 no.3
Race 4 no.8
Race 5 no.10
race 8 no.5
Race 9 no.5

IPSWICH
Race 2 no.1
Race 3 no.6
Race 4 no3
Race 5 nos. 3 and 6
Race 7 no.3
Race 8 nos. 2 and 4

29 selections.

Here's hoping...

[Shaun]

I will list what i found and see the difference.

Canterbury
R2-2 WEMBLEY
R3-5 HEALY CREEK
R5-6 PINS ON PARADE
R6-2 ZAROCK

Ballarat
R1-7 SWEET SCIENCE
R2-10 SPURTACULAR LASS
R4-6 SEA CORAL
R5-8 INSENSITIVE
R6-1 TESTA ROCKETA -3 DANE KEEPER
R7-3 FASTER THAN
R8-12 LATITUDES

Port Lincoln
R2-3 TOOLORA STARR
R4-7 THORTON
R6-8 PLUVIUS
R8-3 BLACK WHISKEY

Muswellbrook
R1-7 CARPE JUGULUM
R2-7 TINTERN ABBEY
R4-8 PINK TIARA
R8-2 PLEASANT GUEST
R9-5 WINNOW

Ipswich
R1-3 MISS STREETEM -4 NOTHIN LEICA RAPID
R2-1 SNIPLAZ
R3-6 SYDNEY OR THE BUSH
R4-3 HEZA ROCKER
R5-3 KALINGA LADY -6 GIDDAY GIDDAY
R6-2 JERSEY JOE
R7-3 QWERTY
R8-2 LAURINEL PRINCESS

[Shaun]

So far i am behind a little over 10 units lets see how Canterbury treats us

[goldcoast]

The ol' forum curse. Using racing n sports online prepost which is what I have done the testing on.

Today's Results
Bets 30
Winners 6
S/R 20%
Loss 9.80
LOT 33%

and Cantebury couldn't help us...

Biggest winner AR5 - 9 - $5.90

[Shaun]

The good thing people will see the results and say it is a no go, mean while we will cleanup

[partypooper]

The biggest mistake I can see is taking a very short run of results and making an assumption.

E.G. just recently I suffered my biggest daily loss in 5 years. I have to tell you it ruffled me something terrible! I couldn't believe the 6 nags in question didn't run a place, followed by 4 losers from 5,... beyond belief. (7 ran 4th)

but i stuck to the guns and recovered in 2 meetings, one with 5 straight placings.

You have to realise that you need 1000 results plus to make an accurate assumption.

[Shaun]

Thats why i would like someone with access to pre post and unitab ratings to run a test.

[thorns]

Well out of interest I went over yesterdays results using the WI6 free ratings. The results I got were:

Selections: 23
Win In: 22.9
Plc In 21.7

Although I'm sure that whatever method you use, its all going to be swings and roundabouts to a certain extent.

[Shaun]

what is WI6 free ratings not sure i have heared of them.

[thorns]

WI6 is the winnerinsix ratings. Not sure if I can post a link, but if you google winnerinsix ratings you should have no issues finding them. Free ratings for every meeting everyday.

[Shaun]

Tahnks i found then.

[michaelg]

After yesterday's dismal results let's see how it goes today:

BATHURST
R1 no.3
R2 no.7
R7 no.11
R8 no.4

NOWRA
R2 no.9
R6 no.4
R7 no.13
R8 nos. 2 and 7

SALE
R3 no.11
R4 no.8
R5 nos 1 and 2
R6 no.8
R7 no.7
R8 no.8
R9 no.1

DALBY
R1 no.9
R4 no.5
R6 no.2
R7 no.4

[Shaun]

Doing good today, here is something i noticed.

If you look at the radio tab selection and follow the same lines of only backing 99/100 raters you will see you get a lot of the same selections 70%-80% there are some differences but some of these are good and some are bad, compare yesterdays runners.

[goldcoast]

Shaun,

Going a little further with your analysis, it would be interesting to see what stats there are for Radio TAB tips. What is the % winners in the first two tips only?

Yesterday if you added the extra rule must be radio tab 1st or 2nd tip, then we only had a loss of 3 units.

Maybe see if this rule adds to the system or not.

Cheers

[goldcoast]

My results today using racingnsports prepost

Today's Results
Bets 31
Winners 10
S/R 32%
Profit 13.20 units
POT 43%

Incl. $6.90, 8.10, 7.30 & 6.50 winners.

Over the three days.
+14.70
- 9.80
+13.20
---------
+18.10 using Unitab.

NB. In my testing period, the Saturdays have been the worst performing days, thought I would let you know.

[Shaun]

My results today using racingnsports prepost

Today's Results
Bets 31
Winners 10
S/R 32%
Profit 13.20 units
POT 43%

Incl. $6.90, 8.10, 7.30 & 6.50 winners.


There were only 21 selections today

[goldcoast]

Shaun,
Bets I found. Let me know which ones aren't right via racingnsports online.
<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 52pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="70"><col style="width: 29pt;" width="39"> <col style="width: 23pt;" width="31"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 29pt;" width="39" height="17">cr1</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">cr2</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">cr3</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">cr3</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">cr7</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">cr7</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">11</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">cr8</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">qr3</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">qr4</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">qr6</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">qr7</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">qr7</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">qr8</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">6</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">nr1</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">nr1</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">nr2</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">9</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">nr5</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">nr6</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">4</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">nr6</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">10</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">nr8</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">nr8</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr1</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr2</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr3</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">11</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr4</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr5</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr5</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr6</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr7</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">7</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr8</td> <td class="xl23" x:num="">8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td class="xl23" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">vr9</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 23pt;" x:num="" width="31">1</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Cheers

[michaelg]

My results are:

21 selections
7 winners
Return of $27.20.

Place
15 successes
Return of $23.90.

Goldcoast, I've also generally found with systems/neurals that Saturday racing can be very different to non-Saturday. I probably won't be looking at the system tomorrow.

[Shaun]

Sorry Goldcoast i was going i Michaels's selections i didn't have time to check it today

Not sure how he got 21 and you got 31 i might have to have a look tonight if i get time.

[goldcoast]

Today's Selections - Unitab Codes
As with yesterday depending on what Prepost you use may change your selections.

cr1 10
cr2 7
cr4 3
cr5 7
cr6 7
cr8 2
pr1 2
pr1 4
pr3 3
pr4 1
pr4 6
pr6 4
pr7 1
pr7 7
pr8 7
pr8 9
br4 5
br4 7
br6 2
br7 2
br7 3
br8 8
br8 15
vr1 3
vr2 2
vr3 6
vr4 10
vr5 11
vr6 2
vr7 6
vr8 1
zs1 4
zs2 2
zs4 11
zs5 8
zs6 1
zs9 4
zs10 8
mr1 1
mr1 3
mr2 4
mr3 12
mr4 2
mr4 3
mr5 7
mr6 11
mr7 2
mr7 4
mr8 4
mr9 2
mr9 13
qr1 3
qr2 10
qr3 6
qr5 6
qr6 1
qr7 5
ar1 1
ar3 1
ar4 4
ar5 2
ar6 7
ar7 3
ar8 2
ar9 2
nr1 11
nr2 6
nr3 1
nr3 11
nr4 3
nr5 7
nr6 1
nr8 1
nr8 9
ns1 4
ns2 6
ns3 9
ns5 2
ns6 10
ns7 1
ns8 9
sr1 6
sr2 6
sr3 6
sr4 8
sr5 3
sr6 10
sr7 6
sr7 9
sr8 3
er1 4
er2 6
er5 2
er7 2

[goldcoast]

Results for yesterday

Bets 94
Winners 21
S/R 22%
Loss -23.2
LOT -25%

As mentioned doesn't perform well on Saturday's.

[partypooper]

goldcoast, have looked at Metro only rather than all races ? just a thought.

[thorns]

Has anybody had a chance to go over the results for the past few days?

[michaelg]

Thorns,

According to the Telagraph, on Sunday there were 44 selections for 13 winners returning $40.90 and 26 placegetters returning $42.90.

I don't have any figures for Monday.

Yesterday there were 16 selections for 5 winners giving a return of $12.90 and $13.90 on Place betting.

[michaelg]

If anyone's interested today's selections are:

CANTERBURY
R4 no.4
R5 no.5
R6 no.5

BETFAIR PARK
R2 no.3
R3 no.4
R5 nos. 1 and 11
R6 nos. 3 and 12

GERALDTON
R1 no.6
R2 no.2
R4 no.11
R5 no.1
R6 no.1
R7 no.13

GOLD COAST
R2 no.2
R3 no7
R4 no.7
R5 nos. 2 and 6
R7 nos. 2 and 7
R8 no.2

MURRAY BRIDGE
R2 no.9
R5 no.4

When checking the selections for Sunday and yesterday I noticed that all selections resuming from a spell did not win. There is 1 today - Gold Coast R3 no.7.