An interesting system

[crash]

One I worked out that's had some good results. The rules might be able to be tweaked a bit to suit. As is it has good form logic.

1/-1100m-2200m
2/-57kg or less [include claims]
3/-g or d tracks only or won in conditions.
4/8-14 runners only
5/-3rd, 4th or 5th up only
6/-4-5 yr.olds
7/c, d or t in formline
8/-10 to 18 days since last start
9/-up or down in distance 200m only
10/-If more than 2 qualifiers, ignore the race

How I bet them: $8 or less sp back for W only and above up to $20, back for P only.

[Stix]

Best I could do to make it fit:

1/-1100m-2200m
2/-57kg or less [include claims]
3/-dead or good tracks
4/-8-14 runners only
5/-3rd, 4th or 5th up only
6/-4-5 yr.olds
7/- C
8/-10 to 18 days since last start
9/- up or down in distance 200m only
10/-all selections included

2,807
388 Winners
13.82% S/R
-509 unit
-18% POT
Av Div 5.92

1/-1100m-2200m
2/-57kg or less [include claims]
3/-dead or good tracks
4/-8-14 runners only
5/-3rd, 4th or 5th up only
6/-4-5 yr.olds
7/- t
8/-10 to 18 days since last start
9/- up or down in distance 200m only
10/-all selections included

4,406
599 Winners
13.6% S/R
-830 unit
-19% POT
Av Div 5.97

1/-1100m-2200m
2/-57kg or less [include claims]
3/-dead or good tracks
4/-8-14 runners only
5/-3rd, 4th or 5th up only
6/-4-5 yr.olds
7/- d
8/-10 to 18 days since last start
9/- up or down in distance 200m only
10/-all selections included


7,268
881 Winners
12.12% S/R
-922 unit
-13% POT
Av Div $7.2

[stugots]

could the 'c' or 'd', be the killer(s)?

as its actually a filter i use the exclude some runners in one of my methods as i found them to be often overbet & therefore poor value in general, esp the 'c'

[crash]

You might be right there Stugots. I know the system is no quite right but it's on the right track I think. Needs a tweak.

[Stix]

could the 'c' or 'd', be the killer(s)?

as its actually a filter i use the exclude some runners in one of my methods as i found them to be often overbet & therefore poor value in general, esp the 'c'I personally find that with some systems i use if the have never won at the track and or distance, the SR and POT actually increase...you'd expect the POT to as not as over bet as you say, but not the SR...strange

Also one of the best filters I use is <=1.5kg from last run, also love 3 and 4 yo's and most of my methods exclude 5 yo and older except in the longer distance races....

[Stix]

You might be right there Stugots. I know the system is no quite right but it's on the right track I think. Needs a tweak.Think it needs and edge* more than a tweak, as most factors/rules you have are looked at by a lot of punters - just my humble opinion. I'd consider tweaking form, sex and also weight criteria, and disrgard conditions (:D) but that's my research, it is different for others.

With a few tweaks I get:

1,123
204 Winners
18% S/R
+ 142 units
+ 13% POT
Av Div 6.20

All sexes
2,524
377 Winners
15% S/R
-70 units
-3% POT
Av Div 6.51


Tweaks include:
1. Lower Weight
2. Geldings only*
3. lower age
4. Equal or up in weight
5. Prize money criteria
6. Metro run last start
7. Leave Adelaid & Brisbane Racing alone

* Possible Edge - Chrome has mentioned this previously


Including another sex "type" ;)

1,186
218 Winners
18% S/R
+ 175 units
+ 15% POT
Av Div 6.24

[crash]

Thanks for that info. Stix. I'm going to look into those areas and make a few changes.

[Chrome Prince]

I personally find that with some systems i use if the have never won at the track and or distance, the SR and POT actually increase

I found this also, I think it's factored into the price and that's why the loss is greater.

[stugots]

7. Leave Adelaid & Brisbane Racing alone

i dont mind Brisbane so much, the smaller fields, but Adelaide - its like a punting graveyard for me, i get the cross & garlic cloves out even if i just have to fly through there:)

Perth on the other hand, often do better there than anywhere else