Reversing the book

[partypooper]

I've managed to make a few quid on several occasions by taking the best odds on offer to end up at around 97-98%. A small % but very satisfying. The achillies heel of course is deductions in the case of late scratchings. Does anyone know statisically how many times this happens and the overall effect. I mean I know you could be creased on one particular race but what is the likelyhood of it happening?

I'm only finding a few races where it can be safely done to make between 1 and 4%, but I feel that with longshots say above 35-1 it may be possible to back em at BEST tote with a reduced bet and increase the takeout or at least include more races.

What I'm getting at is say we make a book to 97%, which includes 2x34-1 shots and a 50-1 shot, so the amount allocated on them (to take out 100units) is approx 8 units 3+3+2, so maybe we back em best tote (or SP) say 2 +2+1.5 thereby reducing total outlay to 94.5 units.

Now I am aware of the danger that maybe the 50-1 shot comes home and only pays $40 best tote, but I'm wondering if that tiny risk could be worth it,

Any thoughts?

[Chrome Prince]

Partypooper,

Mark is your man for this answer.
From my point of view though, your initial edge has to outweigh a number of factors.

Late scratchings
A plunge on an outsider or mid priced horse
Late money for one early favoured horse.

I know Mark does it successfully on 2.5%, but I cannot get it into overall positive territory without building much bigger edges to compensate for other factors.

For what it's worth, have you looked at taking Top Fluc on horses that open odds on and laying on Betfair just before the off, or with a built in price in mind?

I find this has far less risk than trying to make a book, but it's horses for courses, and what suits me best.
If the odds on favourite should drift, I try and lay it before it drifts too far, so I still have the buffer of Top Fluc in my favour.

[partypooper]

thanks for the feedback Chrome, MMmmmmmm! I'll just digest that for a while gotta admit I always thought top fluc presented a few possibilities, I'll think about that!

[partypooper]

Put it to the test today with 6 races covered, made better than 5% having escaped any late scratchings or big priced winners, but I know what you mean Chrome you never feel safe till they're off.

Another question to anyone following this: getting back onto the Top Fluc thing, what is the most reliable (accurate) pre-post forcast? now by accurate I mean in terms of predicting the Fav, and the price in that order? anyone got any stats? I'm liking the look of Racing and Sports, but I'm new to that so have no idea what has transpired? someone else said that Track Talk (Radio) is a better indicator?

PS. Another thought came to me today: say we were to cover all selections starting from the highest rated (at fixed odds) until we have bet 80 units (to win 100) this will usually cover around 6 or 7 runners, I'm told that will snag the winner at least 85% of the time, that being the case over time the we outlaid 80x100 races = 8000 units for a return of at least 8500 units, does this make sense?

[Chrome Prince]

No prepost market, even ratings can even predict the eventual favourite, or price, because of stable money, trackwork results (both public and hidden) and veterinary reports etc.

Therein lies the dilemma, if "we" knew, it would be a licence to print money.

Example: a horse my mate owns, does not handle Canterbury, but has started three times there as odds on favourite and beaten every time.

If you "knew" a 10/1 shot had trouble in the last three races getting smothered by outside horses and getting his tongue over the bit, so they changed the bit only slightly which seemed to work in trackwork and today he's going to be in a wider barrier and kept for one late run down the outside, having run close fourths the last three times, surely his odds should be slashed in half.

My saying goes something like this:

"A horse's opening price plus overround is breakeven for what we know, it's final price plus overround is breakeven for what we don't know, if we knew what we didn't know beforehand, we'd all make an absolute killing" ;D

I'm more convinced this is true, as time goes on and markets unfold and contacts are made with various stables and owners.
It isn't what I know that will make a fortune, it's what I don't know, and until I know it, I'm left chipping away at a pot of gold.

[partypooper]

Well Chrome I agree with your summation in it's entirity. I know that we will never know all the parameters in a given race, that's why I'm convinced that the only chance is a mechanical one. But it's hard to put into words,.. I'll try,

Say that we take all horses in given races with a given set of parameters (that are in our control) eg. recent runs, performed on the going, distance S/R senior jockey, Metro run, previous winner etc etc etc. you know...... a "system" dare I say? and then we observe that there is a consistent S/R over an extended period of time, for arguments sake lets say that S/R is 85% for the place and we managed to get an average divi of $1.30c (by betting at Best Tote etc )

Now this means that we have 15 losers from every 100 bets, hopefully INCLUDED is the ones where the jockey has a snorting problem, a trainer who is known to give some selected horses a bucket of water b4 the race; or ran him for 20 miles the day b4, the one who is unlucky enough to be targeted by the other jockeys etc etc etc, HEY NO I"M ONLY JOKING I'm sure none of that happens, it's just bad luck I know, heheheh! but you see where I'm coming from, we have to account for the mishaps within our failure rate?

[Mark]

Party

Are you backing every runner?, if you can consistently get less than 100%, you will win, win, win.

If not, I'd be very careful how many you leave out, because as sure as Murphy, one day the ones you leave out will get up and bite you.

Given that you're a backer, I wouldn't worry about late scratchings and the possible effect they have on your result, as Betfair, (and this is my only critcism of them) is heavily biased against layers when it comes to reductions.

You will see that all races have 100% or less, (yes less!!!) for their reduction factors. I call it their hidden tax on layers, and you'd be shocked how much it's cost me over the years, watching all green books turn to all red. I have given up emailing and phoning them with ideas on how to improve this but all to no avail, they never seem to go any further than the person who picks up the phone, or opens the email. I once even had a long discussion with a supervisor who had no idea how the reductions worked or affected layers. Their policy of anything 40/1 & above given 0% reduction is simply ridiculous, so if you're a backer then 99 times out of 100 you'd be hoping for late scratchings.

[partypooper]

thanks for the feedback Mark, yes I was backing every runner where I could get fixed odds as far as 99%, but felt much more comfortable at around 97%. Now as I was only trialing this on Saturdays the number of races where I could get set was minimal, but I still love it.

I guess what you are saying is that if I can get say 2% on ave. backing every horse @fixed odds I will still end up in front even allowing for the times when deductions apply? whereas if I reduce the number of runners I will get stung over time is that right?

[Mark]

Exactly.

I am very conservative in my laying/backing/trading. If I can put myself in a risk free postion, I'll do it every time.

[partypooper]

Mark, thanks for that, yes I like that feeling of risk free, BUT the 00 always hangs around with the threat of deductions , but you have made me feel better about that, as I only think in terms of LONG LONG TERM.

Just two things I wanna run past your experience in the matter:

(1) Do you think there is any merit in still making the betting if the book stands at say 102% (including those 50-1 shots) i.e. if they do get up and very rare then you have only done 2% or so, but in the meantime have included many more races for a profit?

(2) Working out the bets at fixed price , only betting where you can gain a minimum of 1%, BUT place the amounts at Top Fluc which seems to almost always beat the fixed odds? get my drift? in other words you were set at say 2% but if (and nearly always is the case that top fluc beats the fixed odds ), but of course adds another element of risk IF it doesn't???

[Bhagwan]

Hi Party,
I have found that the concept you are trying seems to be easier to work where the Fav is paying 3.20+

Once the Fav gets below this figure , the slightest difference to the Fav can throw ones figures around dramatically.

Cheers.

[partypooper]

Hi Bhags, in gerneral I don't see fluctuatuions as a problem as I'm betting at fixed odds, unless you mean it fluctuates before you can get on?

But again, in my example (2) even if you bet at top fluc , any movement in odds doesn't affect anything as you have got TOP fluc. But I am told that deductions still apply to top fluc. is that right?

[Mark]

Mark, thanks for that, yes I like that feeling of risk free, BUT the 00 always hangs around with the threat of deductions , but you have made me feel better about that, as I only think in terms of LONG LONG TERM.

Just two things I wanna run past your experience in the matter:

(1) Do you think there is any merit in still making the betting if the book stands at say 102% (including those 50-1 shots) i.e. if they do get up and very rare then you have only done 2% or so, but in the meantime have included many more races for a profit?

(2) Working out the bets at fixed price , only betting where you can gain a minimum of 1%, BUT place the amounts at Top Fluc which seems to almost always beat the fixed odds? get my drift? in other words you were set at say 2% but if (and nearly always is the case that top fluc beats the fixed odds ), but of course adds another element of risk IF it doesn't???


You've lost me a bit on (1). If you mean backing all but the outsiders, let's say @ 96%, and one of them gets up.....you're out of pocket big time.
(2) There's the risk, however I don't know much about top fluc as all of my betting is now with BF, except when the bookies offer "free" bets. (mmmm free bets) now there's the ultimate in risk free.