Early retirement

[Mike367]

This is my plan for my early retirement, any and all advice is welcome.

First I split my bank in two, reserve and active.
The size of each bet is 5% of the active bank (2.5% of total bank)
Stop betting after 20% POT.
Find 1 stand out horse from ALL venues, thats paying $1.20 for the place.
This will double my active bank in 100 days.
When the horse fails to place, I have a few choices:
1. take the loss and carry on.
2. same bet 5% with the horse paying $1.40
3. same bet 5% for the WIN.
4 double the bet 10% to place at $1.20
If 2nd horse fails, the I'll start from the start.

I would like your advice, not just on the above, but punting in general.
I don't want your hard earned secerets or private systems. Just a bit of helpful advice.
Thank you all,
Mike.
P.S
If you want to email its mjm367 at gmail dot com
Mike.

[xanadu]

G'day Mike,
All the best with your plan as any serious punters definitely need a "business" plan.
The only problem is that if a runner is showing $1.40 for the place this can shrink dramatically as the late money comes in. It is quite common knowledge that the bulk of money is invested in the last five minutes prior to race-start.
Also, could I recommend that you include in your plan to increase the unit value of your investments each time you win 100 units or similar.
Therefore you will have control over your betting bank and are not chasing losses which is the downfall of many punters.
Good luck to you.

Cheers.

[stugots]

gday mike, at $1.20 you will need to maintain an almost impossibly high strike rate to make it all worthwhile, so my only concern would be how you will 'Find 1 stand out horse from ALL venues'?

to do that is not an easy exercise in my experience, even before bringing to account elements such bad luck in running, poor/dodgy ride by the pygmy, etc etc

[thorns]

Yeah have to agree with the above. You might want to aim for horses paying a bit more. There is nothing more frustrating than for example getting 8 places in a row, only for two missess ti put you back to square one. Im sure it can be done, but I would rather target horses a bit longer. Myself, I wont back a horse if its showing under $1.70 before jump. This allows for a late crunch, and still should hopefuly show an alright price.

I guess if you are set in your ways of finding a $1.20 shot to back, you will want to be able to monitor all totes, and try and get teh best price. Even if you can 10 cents better each time it could be the difference between winning and loosing.

[Merriguy]

Mike,

Have a look at a thread from last Oct. -- a lot of relevance, I think

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=18101

[AngryPixie]

When the horse fails to place, I have a few choices:
1. take the loss and carry on. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/smile.gif
2. same bet 5% with the horse paying $1.40 http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/frown.gif
3. same bet 5% for the WIN. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/frown.gif
4 double the bet 10% to place at $1.20 http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/frown.gif
If 2nd horse fails, the I'll start from the start.
Mike you'd need to land close to 90% of the $1.20 shots to make it workwhile.

[crash]

I like your optimism Mike, but I wouldn't be planning on early retirement yet!
When I first started betting on the horses [40yrs ago], I worked out that all I had to do to get from struggle st. to easy st. was to back favorites for the place [why hadn't anyone else thought of such a plan? LOL].

AS Xanadu and Thorns have pointed out, TAB SP prices [especially for the place] cannot be known until after the jump, so you can never be certain what price you are accepting.

Theoretically, even if you did manage to get an average price of $1.20p per bet, you'd need a better than 80% SR just to break even and maintaining even that would be impossible, let alone trying to produce a profit.

All said and done, a better proposition for you might be aiming for one winner from 4 bets [25% SR] at an average price of $5w. If you were consistent enough you could make a profit. No easy task but with careful race selection, it's at least not impossible and worth aiming for.

Good luck whichever way you bet.

[Bhagwan]

Here is a plan that producers...
85% Place SR
80% Lay success rate.

Approx 7 bets a week.
Betting 7 days a week.

Av place div 1.20-1.30
Av lay price not to win 2.80

1. RULES
Pull up The Neurals at std setting.

Selection is the sole 300+ptr. Horse

Have 40 unit bank.
Bet 1 unit lay. If 4.80 & less. (Optional)
Bet 2 units place.
Bet 7 days a week.

That's it.

There will be days where there are no selections.


What is strange with these selections, they are nearly always under 3.00
They are always very short priced.
They hardly ever win .
They nearly always place.
There is usually at least one scratching, if more than one selection on the day.... weird.
Based on many months of research.

The pattern never changes.



Another plan is....
2. RULES
Target races with exactly 8 runners.
Bet the fav. to place-if the price look right.
Very high SR.

Its usually an idea when place betting favs , to try for a min price of 1.40
This means we would need to bet 2.50 to profit 1.00

Try & keep in mind that if we wish to win say 1.00 targeting a div of 1.20
Our O/L would be 5.00 to profit 1.00
One may wish to think twice about taking such short prices.

Try & use Betfair for better prices & the prices wont change after the race has started like the TABs do.

Use BetTraderPro betting tool to bet under the Betfair min amount.

Cheers.

[Mike367]

Thanks everone for the advice.
You are right about targeting $1.20 place, I'll look at a weekly avg of $1.20.
I'll look at top fluc too.

Aquestion or two for the helpfull Bhagwan, what do you mean by

pull up the Neurals at std setting?
Selection is the sole 300+ptr. Horse?

I still can't work out how to bet to place on betfair. I keep getting the blue and pink screen win/lay screen.

Thanks again all,
Mike

[Crackone]

I still can't work out how to bet to place on betfair. I keep getting the blue and pink screen win/lay screen.MikeIf you are using betfair interface the markets are on the left hand side panel, eg.you should see 8.08 R5 1200 Hcap this is the win market under that it should have 8.08 to be placed that is the place market.

Cheers

[Mike367]

This is what I see, after I click on the sports tab, then click on horse racing, then on Aus, then on venue eg Alba, then on a race.

selection horses name barrier ect, then 3 boxs in the blue (back) side then 3 boxs on the pink (lay) side. The boxs contain the odds and a $ amount available to be matched.
Under that is the next horse.

Where am I going wrong?

[Crackone]

This is what I see, after I click on the sports tab, then click on horse racing, then on Aus, then on venue eg Alba, then on a race.

selection horses name barrier ect, then 3 boxs in the blue (back) side then 3 boxs on the pink (lay) side. The boxs contain the odds and a $ amount available to be matched.
Under that is the next horse.

Where am I going wrong?OK click on sports, then horse racing todays card this will bring up all the races for today. Each race has two markets eg 8.08 Alba (AUS) and under that one is 8.08 Alba (AUS) (place) this one is the place market for the 8.08 (time) race. click on this one and you will get the place market up with the three boxes to back or lay.

[Mark]

Mike, I'd suggest that retirement is a while away yet. ;)

[Mike367]

Thanks Crackone, I do feel a bit stupid, lol, don't know why I didn't work that one out.
Mike.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Mike,
This is all very new for you my friend.

I suggest you keep any bets very low to start with say 1/200th of bank , maybe less ,until one gets more of a feel for it all.
Best not cop an ass kicking before one really starts.

Use Google to find the Neurals .

Cheers.

[Mike367]

You are right this is all a bit new. I have placed fun bets with the local TAB for a few years. But taking it seriously is a lot harder and involved than I thought it would be.

Thanks to all for the help,
Mike.

P.S. Retirement in 3 years, thats the plan.

[Mike367]

Take two.

The bet will be 5% of active bank

Targeting an avg return of $1.50

A S/R of around 70%

As for the selection, that will be the fav or 2nd fav
filters: win % of 25% plus
a top 4 finish in prev 3 runs

Any thoughts?
Cheers,
Mike