Market + Tipster Method

[Bhagwan]

This has a great SR .

Target races with 12 runners & less.
This reducers the run of outs
Preferable where the Fav is value.

Try & target races where there are one + last start winners in the field.
This tells us that the race has at least some quality to the race.

.Target the tipsters 3 selections.

.Target the 1st , 3rd , 4th market Fav (Deleting 2nd Fav)

.Bet 1 unit each time it it qualifies.

Example.
Tipsters Nos. 1,3,10.

Market Favs 1st, 3rd, 4th . Nos.2,4,10

Outlays would be ...
1 x 1 unit
3 x 1
10 x 1 wins at 7.90
2 x 1
4 x 1
10 x 1 wins at 7.90

Total 6 units
Ret 15.20
+9.20 prof

Level stakes betting.
Bet 1% or less of bank
Allows for 18 outs.

Maybe its an idea to stop betting for the day as soon as 3-4 outs in a row is struck.
This often tells us that its maybe not going to be our day.

Cheers.

[thorns]

Any particualr reason for leavingout the 2nd fav? Looks like a fun method, had a few nice nice collects over the past few days.

[Bhagwan]

The stats show that there is more profit to be had by leaving it out when targeting 3 of the top 4 in the market.

In other words , if one has to delete one out of the top 4 in the market , the 2nd Fav is the more profitable to leave out.

The 2nd fav also has long runs of outs between wins & does not justify its average price.

If one wishes to do a little back testing, the 2nd fav in these races over the next 150 bets , one will see big holes where they just don't get up.

Also, if they are half a chance of getting up, we will be assume it will be covered by the tipster.

[thorns]

Cheers for that Bhags, intersting about the 2nd fav being the worst value over time. I would have assumed the fav would be the worst value.

Keep up the fun methods, love playing round with your ideas.

[thorns]

I dont suppose you have some long term figures at all?
Strike rate is obviuosly going to be really high, and any ideas of the avg divi? I would expect it to make a level stakes loss, but am keen to generate some random data to play round with.

[Bhagwan]

In 12 horse & less events , its amazing just how many come from the top 4 in the live Betfair market.

Where there is a strong day with the tipsters top 3 combining with the top 4 in the market the profits can be over 100% POT on the day .
On other days it may just break even.

The losses are usually low on bad days.

It is important to use Betfair due to the stronger prices to make this work.

One will see how bad the TAB prices are when using this plan because we are not just dealing with one price.

Cheers.

[Researcher]

" prefably where the favourite is value" Do you mean that the favourite should be over$3?

[Bhagwan]

If the Fav is 1.80 it will break even , if fav gets up.

You will also break even if the 3rd Fav is paying 5.00

You have to determine what is value compared to the size of the field & what the other 3 in the market are paying.

Everything is comparitive in racing.

There is no single figure that says this is value.

I am assuming that you are punters therefore spoon feeding is not required.

Cheers.

[thorns]

Perhaps I am missing somthing here, but if you are outlaying 6 units a race, how do you break even if the fav gets up paying $1.80? Or the 3rd fav gets up paying $5, its still a loss? Are you talking about the same method? Or something else entirely?

[Bhagwan]

Sorry,it was relating to something else where the 1st, 3rd, 4th, Fav is targeted.

Betting 3 + 1 + 1 units = 5 units in total per suitable race.