Pups for Profit

[schmucta80]

Let's see how the forum curse goes with an extended attempt at making money on the dogs.

Ballarat Race 5 Firefly Bale
Ballarat Race 8 Ceejay's Slinky
Ballarat Race 9 Glen Abbey Tom
Ballarat Race 10 Blachura Bale
Ballarat Race 11 Timely Omen
Warrnambool Race 4 Mepunga Diva
Warrnambool Race 7 Mepunga Harmony
Warrnambool Race 8 Jarvis Bale
Albion Park Race 7 Cloud Dancer
Ipswich Race 4 Smart Blonde
Ipswich Race 5 Black Raven
Ipswich Race 6 Hot Dessa
Ipswich Race 7 Goodbye Farewell
Ipswich Race 9 Bowser

[schmucta80]

Well the forum curse didn't bite that hard tonight, although the placegetters were very frustrating.

Ballarat Race 5 Firefly Bale -
Ballarat Race 8 Ceejay's Slinky 3rd
Ballarat Race 9 Glen Abbey Tom 1st $3.30
Ballarat Race 10 Blachura Bale 1st $6.20
Ballarat Race 11 Timely Omen -
Warrnambool Race 4 Mepunga Diva 1st $2.60
Warrnambool Race 7 Mepunga Harmony 1st $2.50
Warrnambool Race 8 Jarvis Bale 2nd
Albion Park Race 7 Cloud Dancer 2nd
Ipswich Race 4 Smart Blonde 2nd
Ipswich Race 5 Black Raven 1st $1.70
Ipswich Race 6 Hot Dessa 2nd
Ipswich Race 7 Goodbye Farewell 1st $1.80
Ipswich Race 9 Bowser 3rd


Bet $14.00
Return $18.10
POT 29.28

Strikerate %42.85

[schmucta80]

Albion Park Race 3 Genista Reign
Albion Park Race 5 Aunty Joan
Albion Park Race 7 Royston aaaaaaaa
Albion Park Race 9 Digital Magic
Dapto Race 6 Brislane
Sandown Race 4 Lady Moscato
Sandown Race 7 Mantra Lad
Sandown Race 10 Seismic Green
Maitland Race 4 Vee Man Vane
Maitland Race 5 Elite Oriental
Maitland Race 6 Dentax Bale
Angle Park Race 5 Flash Of Light
Hobart Race 2 Callamac Lad

[schmucta80]

Very frustrating end to the night with the last four all running second

Albion Park Race 3 Genista Reign 1st $2.30
Albion Park Race 5 Aunty Joan 1st $2.30
Albion Park Race 7 Royston aaaaaaaav -
Albion Park Race 9 Digital Magic 2nd
Dapto Race 6 Brislane 2nd
Sandown Race 4 Lady Moscato 1st $1.70
Sandown Race 7 Mantra Lad 2nd
Sandown Race 10 Seismic Green 2nd
Maitland Race 4 Vee Man Vane -
Maitland Race 5 Elite Oriental 1st $1.70
Maitland Race 6 Dentax Bale -
Angle Park Race 5 Flash Of Light 1st $1.60
Hobart Race 2 Callamac Lad 1st $1.50

Bet $27.00
Return $29.20
POT %8.14

Strikerate %44.44

[schmucta80]

Shepparton Race 7 Taipan Bale
Shepparton Race 8 Premier Reward
Wentworth Park Race 5 Radio Star
Wentworth Park Race 9 Gazmick Storm
Cranbourne Race 3 Gaelic Style
Angle Park Race 4 Savage Shaker
Angle Park Race 7 Roxio Bale
Launceston Race 4 Callamac Lad

[schmucta80]

Shepparton Race 7 Taipan Bale 1st $1.20
Shepparton Race 8 Premier Reward -
Wentworth Park Race 5 Radio Star 1st $2.20
Wentworth Park Race 9 Gazmick Storm 3rd
Cranbourne Race 3 Gaelic Style 1st $2.10
Angle Park Race 4 Savage Shaker 1st $1.60
Angle Park Race 7 Roxio Bale 1st $3.20
Launceston Race 4 Callamac Lad 1st $1.70

Bet $35.00
Return $41.20
POT %17.77

Winners 18/35 Strikerate %51.44

[schmucta80]

Ipswich Race 5 Parra State
Horsham Race 6 Jim Bob
Horsham Race 8 Railway Max
Horsham Race 10 Mining Oasis
Gosford Race 8 Mctearaway
Warrnambool Race 2 Kafelnikov
Warrnambool Race 6 Ticabond
Warrnambool Race 7 Rumble Supreme

[Sportz]

Shepparton Race 7 Taipan Bale 1st $1.20
Shepparton Race 8 Premier Reward -
Wentworth Park Race 5 Radio Star 1st $2.20
Wentworth Park Race 9 Gazmick Storm 3rd
Cranbourne Race 3 Gaelic Style 1st $2.10
Angle Park Race 4 Savage Shaker 1st $1.60
Angle Park Race 7 Roxio Bale 1st $3.20
Launceston Race 4 Callamac Lad 1st $1.70

Bet $35.00
Return $41.20
POT %17.77

Winners 18/35 Strikerate %51.44

Going well, mate. Keep it up.

[moeee]

Thats the strangest thing to me.

That a Punter can be so skilful at selecting that his strike rate is right up at over 50%, yet the POT is Excellently Positive, but only hovering at the 17% mark.

It just goes to show that it is not the strike rate that is important, but the Profit on Turnover.
And what is most important about Shmucta selections, is that there is plenty of action.

Well done Shmucta.
Finally someone who actually is showing a profit on their methods and not just posting tips for the sake of doing it.

Maybe you could post some ideas on how you go about deciding on which races to bet or or not to bet on.
And what form guide you use.
I would love to be able to do what you are doing and perhaps even do it better :)

[Moderator 3]

Royston aaaaaaaa
Royston Renegade

[schmucta80]

Ipswich Race 5 Parra State -
Horsham Race 6 Jim Bob 1st $1.90
Horsham Race 8 Railway Max 3rd
Horsham Race 10 Mining Oasis 2nd
Gosford Race 8 Mctearaway -
Warrnambool Race 2 Kafelnikov 2nd
Warrnambool Race 6 Ticabond -
Warrnambool Race 7 Rumble Supreme 2nd

Bet $43.00
Return $43.10
POT Haha, let's call it even at this stage :)

Winners 19/43 Strikerate %44.18

[schmucta80]

Albion Park Race 3 Royal Surfer
Albion Park Race 10 Fever Jack
Bulli Race 6 Malak Bale
Ipswich Race 3 Queen Lauryn
Ipswich Race 7 Hot Dessa
Ballarat Race 5 Hayder Bale
Ballarat Race 6 Glen Abbey Tom
Ballarat Race 8 Fidel Bale
Warrnambool Race 5 Halkin Bale
Warrnambool Race 8 Hanify's Impact
Warrnambool Race 9 Wes Mantooth

[schmucta80]

Thanks Sportz, was up until a rough trot last night, but with a bit of luck it could have been alot better.

Moeee, thanks for the interest.

There are not many races that pass by on tv that I don't watch either at the time or after the races have been run, so you could say I have a good knowledge of most dogs running around.

People use speed maps in the gallops to great advantage and I can look at a race field of greyhounds, and do a very similar sort of thing.

I love a greyhound that is of a better class than the field they are meeting, and this would be the only thing that would make me select a greyhound that does not have good early pace. A good dog from a bad box will beat a bad dog from a good box......on most occasions. :)

I love to back dogs who I think will lead, the one turn tracks I love because they seem to be fairer I think, in the fact that with a longer run to the first turn each dog has more of a chance on it's merits.

But most of all it comes down to times. A dog who can run quick times I have a lot of respect for, and if they look the likely leader around 100m-150m after the start then I want to be on. This s where the speed maps I mentioned earlier help, as I would say on average I am close enough to correct with these maps on say %50 to %60 of the time, and that is very close to my overall winning average.

Then, after all that is said and done, you would be a fool if you did not bet when you could secure value. I dont back all the dogs I select, because some just don't have the value that I expected when I selected them, and I don't mind letting them pass. Case in point, Parra State last night at Ipswich, paying $1.30 and $1.40 on the totes, but I was able to secure $2.10 on Betfair. ALas it got beat, but I will take $2.10 any day about a dog I believe to be a $1.50 or $1.60 chance. Thats where you can make profits.

Form guides, I don't use so much, only the GRV website to look at the fields, as I said I pretty much know each greyhound and most of its statistics.

Just a bit of an insight into how I come about selecting my bets.

[schmucta80]

Albion Park Race 3 Royal Surfer 1st $2.10
Albion Park Race 10 Fever Jack 3rd
Bulli Race 6 Malak Bale 2nd
Ipswich Race 3 Queen Lauryn 1st $1.10
Ipswich Race 7 Hot Dessa -
Ballarat Race 5 Hayder Bale 2nd
Ballarat Race 6 Glen Abbey Tom 2nd
Ballarat Race 8 Fidel Bale 1st $3.90
Warrnambool Race 5 Halkin Bale 2nd
Warrnambool Race 8 Hanify's Impact 1st $1.70
Warrnambool Race 9 Wes Mantooth 3rd

Bet $54.00
Return $51.90
LOT %3.88

Winners 22/54 Strikerate %40.74

[schmucta80]

Bendigo Race 6 Dancing Lights
Bendigo Race 8 Hot Puzzle
Dapto Race 5 Tian Hao Miss
Albion Park Race 3 Royston Renegade
Albion Park Race 6 Aunty Joan
Maitland Race 6 Accounts
Maitland Race 7 Miss Elly Mint
Maitland Race 8 Elite Oriental
Sandown Race 6 Turanza Bale
Angle Park Race 4 Roxio Bale
Angle Park Race 6 Cadman Bale
Angle Park Race 7 Flash Of Light
Angle Park Race 10 Aunty Vick
Angle Park Race 11 Silent Pedro

[schmucta80]

Of the 54 bets so far, 44 of them have placed for a place strikerate if %81.48 so hopefully some of those placegetters will be winners in the future, as usually my strikerate is 2/3 winners to places, but at the minute it's running at 50/50

[moeee]

I'm not happy with the way you go about finding your selections Shmucta.
Yes you are doing good, but I think a lot of your work depends on what sort of mood you are in.

Because you don't seem to be doing any Mathematics in your studies, a lot of your results will depend on your emotions at the time of making your selections.

I stick with only Victorian Racing.
So I can devote more careful study to what I am doing.
I've noticed you seem to bet on anything that the Bookmakers are having a Market on Shmucta.
Good Luck to you if you can make it profitable, but I would be sleeping in the gutter or an asylum if I tried doing that.

Thanks for putting up your tips.
It caused me to study those Races in Victoria where you had a tip and I made not bad Profit in All 3 Races that I looked carefully at.
Your selections done good too, well done.

Maybe if you enjoy it, you could perhaps look at if any state of Australia is letting you down, and maybe skip them Meetings.

[schmucta80]

Thats understandable Moeee, the way I bet is not for everyone, I would say though that probably %80 of my punting is on greyhounds, I do also love a sportsbet.

The mathematics side of it I am not sure what you mean?

I factor alot of things into my selections, but statistics can be good and bad, such as a dog who has won say 3 out of 3 from box one, but statistics dont factor in that tonight the 2 box is a sharp railer with more pace and will maybe cause trouble to the red. I work alot on times, they are one of the major factors, so I do factor maths into the equations. I know which dogs were unlucky and why, and whether or not they will have a change of luck, most likely, tonight with differing conditions.

We all have different ways of selecting winners, and you did very well last night, and I am having a trot of running places lol, but it will turn.

Cheers for your comments.

[schmucta80]

Bendigo Race 6 Dancing Lights 1st $1.70
Bendigo Race 8 Hot Puzzle 2nd
Dapto Race 5 Tian Hao Miss 1st $2.40
Albion Park Race 3 Royston Renegade 2nd
Albion Park Race 6 Aunty Joan -
Maitland Race 6 Accounts 1st $1.80
Maitland Race 7 Miss Elly Mint 1st $1.30
Maitland Race 8 Elite Oriental 3rd
Sandown Race 6 Turanza Bale 1st $2.80
Angle Park Race 4 Roxio Bale 1st $2.30
Angle Park Race 6 Cadman Bale 3rd
Angle Park Race 7 Flash Of Light -
Angle Park Race 10 Aunty Vick 3rd
Angle Park Race 11 Silent Pedro -


Bet $68.00
Return $64.20
LOT %5.5

Winners 28/68 Strikerate %41.17

[schmucta80]

Traralgon Race 5 Salegreys Gold
Traralgon Race 7 Spence's Shadow
Gardens Race 6 Irinka Samuel
Gardens Race 7 Emo Appeal
Richmond Race 2 Brislane
Richmond Race 5 Midnight Movie
Richmond Race 6 Yorklea Tiger
Richmond Race 7 No Way Aaron
Richmond Race 8 Smart Betsy
Geelong Race 8 Taipan Bale
Geelong Race 10 Thanks To You

[moeee]

Shmucta.
How do you know which race is the one to post your tip on?
Like for SANDOWN last night, how long did you spend doing the Form?
How much time did you spend studying Race 1?
How much time did you spend studying Race 6 where you found a selection?
How much time did you spend studying Race 8, the Lizrene Staying Classic..GROUP 1?

[schmucta80]

It varies from race to race, Turanza Bale was a standout to me, Was down in class I thought, and Sandown allows a dog a great run if they need room, as there is not as much interference, usually, at the first turn, and thats the way it panned out. It was a huge run the week before, and the time that night was sensational, a quick look through the others in the fireld and I could not see it being beaten, with an ounce of luck as usual, which you can never bank on.

I scan the fields, and usually the good runs over the proceeding few weeks will stand out to me, and I can make an educated guess on if I want to delve further into that races form, based on the runners. I pass a few races pretty quickly as they have a few winning chances and it all comes down to luck, such as the distance final last night. Interestingly I had Lady Moscato almost leading that race and proving hard to beat, but I thought it was too much of a gamble. I think on her run if she lead then she would have been hard to beat, as she was back near last and made up a stack of ground, good run, but I am glad I didnt bet.

If you watch as many races as I do, the good dogs will stick in your mind, then the process is to work out what will happen in tonights race, if I like what I see, then it becomes a selection.

Like I have said before, after all that is done, you still need value, so I do not bet every selection, but most of them I find are value, I would say 10 to 15 percent start unders. But betfair is a great addition to my punting options I must say :)

[moeee]

You make no mention in your tips as to what is considered VALUE.
How do you work that out?

Like, What Price did you figure TURANZA BALE was about the right Price?
And what would be the Lowest Price that you would accept on it?
I saw $3.90 on BETFAIR but I was too busy doing something and missed it.

[schmucta80]

Value I base on how confident I am, and I have a price in mind when I select a dog, but it is really just a guide. If I am not comfortable with a price I wont take it.

Turanza Bale, based on the run the week before, I thought would be odds on. So any black figures was value to me. I got set at $3.20 on betfair, plus I also saved on UNITab because sometimes you cannot get on elsewhere, so the $2.80 was also value for me.

That is all down to my confidence though, I really couldn't see anything in the field giving much trouble to Turanze Bale.

Rowdy ran well, but it is a few lengths off Turanza Bale ability wise.

I would not have been as confident had the race been at say Wentworth Park, as the first turn there is a killer, but like i said, Sandown is a very fair track, and the race panned out how I thought.

Does not always happen though, as you can see by my posted tips lol

[schmucta80]

The Meadows Race 2 Mepunga Diva
The Meadows Race 6 Wait On Cooper
The Meadows Race 7 Blachura Bale
The Meadows Race 8 Trew Millions
The Meadows Race 9 Monster Prince
The Meadows Race 10 Dids
Wentworth Park Race 6 Radio Star
Wentworth Park Race 8 Others Quoted
Cannington Race 1 Lucky Louey
Cannington Race 7 Russle Up

[moeee]

I think you may be tipping just for the sake of tipping now Shmucta
Usually you come up with 2, maybe 3 selections per meeting.
Looks like about 6 at The Meadows tonight.
Good Luck with it anyway.
Don't think I'll be betting too much in the Races you have selected.

But I'll cheer yours home for you anyway :)

[schmucta80]

Never ever ever just tip for the sake of it Moeee :)

I can't choose where the good runs start next mate lol, so I go with what I am dealt with.

And The Meadows is a very very different form track than Sandown. It is a leaders track, so dogs that run good time over the shortcourse one turn tracks usually can sustain that speed for the 525m. Different altogether at Sandown, with it being a much fairer track, with dogs seeming to win from anywhere on the first turn. As to why The Meadows seems an easier 525 than the shorter Sandown 515m and I could not answer that.

[schmucta80]

Traralgon Race 5 Salegreys Gold -
Traralgon Race 7 Spence's Shadow 2nd
Gardens Race 6 Irinka Samuel -
Gardens Race 7 Emo Appeal 3rd
Richmond Race 2 Brislane -
Richmond Race 5 Midnight Movie 2nd
Richmond Race 6 Yorklea Tiger 1st $1.60
Richmond Race 7 No Way Aaron -
Richmond Race 8 Smart Betsy 1st $1.70
Geelong Race 8 Taipan Bale 1st $1.70
Geelong Race 10 Thanks To You -

[schmucta80]

The Meadows Race 2 Mepunga Diva 3rd
The Meadows Race 6 Wait On Cooper 3rd
The Meadows Race 7 Blachura Bale 3rd
The Meadows Race 8 Trew Millions -
The Meadows Race 9 Monster Prince -
The Meadows Race 10 Dids 2nd
Wentworth Park Race 6 Radio Star 2nd
Wentworth Park Race 8 Others Quoted 1st $1.60
Cannington Race 1 Lucky Louey 3rd
Cannington Race 7 Russle Up 2nd

Bet $89.00
Return $70.80
LOT %20.44

[moeee]

Your just like me shmucta

Started off in a blaze of glory :) then turned to aaaa :(

[schmucta80]

I'm back, computer troubles hopefully behind me, let's get back into profit.

The Meadows Race 1 Headley Bale
The Meadows Race 3 Grease Monkey
The Meadows Race 4 Jarvis Bale
The Meadows Race 5 Ashlee's Patch
The Meadows Race 6 Whitfield Bale
The Meadows Race 8 Special Sign
The Meadows Race 9 Cranita
Wentworth Park Race 2 Tian Hao Miss
Wentworth Park Race 5 Mutt Lange
Wentworth Park Race 8 Boom Gate

[schmucta80]

The Meadows Race 1 Headley Bale 2nd
The Meadows Race 3 Grease Monkey -
The Meadows Race 4 Jarvis Bale 3rd
The Meadows Race 5 Ashlee's Patch 1st $2.40
The Meadows Race 6 Whitfield Bale 2nd
The Meadows Race 8 Special Sign 2nd
The Meadows Race 9 Cranita -
Wentworth Park Race 2 Tian Hao Miss 2nd
Wentworth Park Race 5 Mutt Lange 2nd
Wentworth Park Race 8 Boom Gate -

Be nice if some of the abnormal run of 2nd's would start hitting the line first.

Bet $99.00
Return $73.20
LOT %26.06

[schmucta80]

Ballarat Race 4 Hesa Felon
Ballarat Race 5 Ned's Pedro
Ballarat Race 6 Regal Blaze
Ballarat Race 8 Gardam Prince
Ballarat Race 9 Silent Guardian
Ballarat Race 10 Timberland
Ballarat Race 11 Dawbilows Heaven

[moeee]

Some mighty skinny Starting Prices there Shmucta.
Those animals tip themselves.
Hardly worth posting.

Good Luck with it anyway.

[schmucta80]

Thanks Moeee, and I need the luck

[schmucta80]

Seriously.....

Did someone say forum curse??

[schmucta80]

Warrnambool Race 5 Explosive Rhode
Warrnambool Race 6 Kooper's Four
Warrnambool Race 8 Nikita Berriman
Ballarat Race 6 Cyclone Ned
Ballarat Race 8 Hesa Felon
Ballarat Race 9 Regal Blaze
Ipswich Race 8 Nordic Assassin
Ipswich Race 9 Robo Raptor

[schmucta80]

Ballarat Race 4 Hesa Felon 2nd
Ballarat Race 5 Ned's Pedro 2nd
Ballarat Race 6 Regal Blaze 1st $1.60
Ballarat Race 8 Gardam Prince 1st $1.30
Ballarat Race 9 Silent Guardian 1st $1.40
Ballarat Race 10 Timberland 1st $1.50
Ballarat Race 11 Dawbilows Heaven 1st $2.60

Bet $106.00
Return $81.60
LOT %23.01

[schmucta80]

Warrnambool Race 5 Explosive Rhode 1st $1.90
Warrnambool Race 6 Kooper's Four 3rd
Warrnambool Race 8 Nikita Berriman 1st $4.20
Ballarat Race 6 Cyclone Ned 1st $3.20
Ballarat Race 8 Hesa Felon -
Ballarat Race 9 Regal Blaze 1st $1.40
Ipswich Race 8 Nordic Assassin 1st $4.80
Ipswich Race 9 Robo Raptor -

Bet $114.00
Return $97.10
LOT %14.82

[schmucta80]

Albion Park Race 4 Santino Marella
Sandown Race 1 Buddy Rose
Sandown Race 2 Blitzem Bale
Sandown Race 6 Flash Of Light
Sandown Race 9 Cho Chang
Sandown Race 11 Dyna Saxon
Maitland Race 3 Disintegrate
Maitland Race 4 Nova Surf
Bendigo Race 9 Uno Jimmy
Angle Park Race 9 Risk It
Angle Park Race 11 Union Rules

[schmucta80]

Albion Park Race 4 Santino Marella 2nd
Sandown Race 1 Buddy Rose -
Sandown Race 2 Blitzem Bale 1st $2.60
Sandown Race 6 Flash Of Light -
Sandown Race 9 Cho Chang -
Sandown Race 11 Dyna Saxon 2nd
Maitland Race 3 Disintegrate -
Maitland Race 4 Nova Surf 1st $1.40
Bendigo Race 9 Uno Jimmy 3rd
Angle Park Race 9 Risk It 1st $2.10
Angle Park Race 11 Union Rules 3rd

Bet $125.00
Return $103.20
LOT %17.44

[schmucta80]

Maitland Race 4 Snozz
Maitland Race 6 Nova Surf
Maitland Race 7 Kokoda Sun
Albion Park Race 1 Amus
Albion Park Race 6 Another Request
Dapto Race 3 Gibbo's Girl
Dapto Race 6 Lukekely Magic
Dapto Race 7 Tall Trees
Dapto Race 9 Nimbastic
Sandown Race 5 Fabrice Bale
Sandown Race 6 My Lippling
Sandown Race 8 Dyna Forte
Sandown Race 9 Barracouta
Sandown Race 10 Cho Chang
Angle Park Race 3 Branwen Bale
Angle Park Race 6 Grand Rule
Angle Park Race 7 White Admiral

[schmucta80]

I have never seen so many of my bets get into so much trouble. An absolutely disgusting night

[schmucta80]

Bulli Race 5 Pretty Boy Troy
Bulli Race 6 Gripen Bale
Bulli Race 10 Aston Burn
Ipswich Race 2 aaaaa Bell
Ipswich Race 3 Nordic Assassin
Ipswich Race 6 Keroma Oh Seven
Ballarat Race 2 Major Mission
Ballarat Race 4 Freddy Flathead
Ballarat Race 6 First Commander
Ballarat Race 8 Little Mop
Warrnambool Race 6 Lebron
Warrnambool Race 8 Selynya Magic
Warrnambool Race 11 Four Way Power
Warrnambool Race 12 Timberlake