Unitab Lay Method

[michaelg]

The rules are:

1) No Maidens.
2) Unitab sole 100 pointer.
3) Unplaced last start and did not win or run second at previous start.
4) Minimum of 11 placed-points over last two starts.
5) Minimum Lay price of $11.

Over the past 7 days there were 2 accidents of $2.60 and $3.80 (Unitab divvies), and 27 successes. A total of 29 selections is much too few to tell if its got any merit but its probably worth a try.

Today's selections are:
Canberra R1 no.4 - Universal Boy
Canberra R4 no.6 - River Ronald
Ararat R8 no.2 - Miles Above
Geraldton R4 no.7 - Jonnicash. (A selection with the Bet method)

[Try Try Again]

Not a good start Michaelg!

2 winners ($2.10 & $2.70 Unitab prices), a scratching and a loss (Johnnicash) - unfortunately for the Bet method.

As you said 29 selections is not enough to see if the method has any merit but it is probably still worth persuing.

Good Luck!

[michaelg]

Yes, it was a disappointing day but I'm not too discouraged - yet.

One selection today:
Seymour R5 no.8 - Surfcoast Racer.

[Try Try Again]

That's more like it Michaelg!

Well done.

[michaelg]

Let's hope it continues.

Today's selections are (it looks like some of them will be over the max price of $11):

Sandown R3 no.8 - Poco Gusto
Sandown R4 no.2 - Dealers
Sun Coast R2 no.5 - Brilliantes
Hawkesbury R1 no.5 - Romany Star
Hawkesbury R3 no.8 - Break Card
Hawkesbury R4 no.11 - Briolette
Balaklava R4 no.3 - Our Angel Eyes
Ascot R5 no.2 - Prince Una
Ascot R8 no.13 - Raging

[wesmip1]

micahel,

Hawkesbury R3 no.8 - Break Card -- Even though this was a "Not Metro Winners" race, not one horse in this race has ever won. Maiden by default ?

Therefore no selection !!!!

BTW it was the only winner today ... sensational day for laying.

Good Luck.

[michaelg]

Hi, Wesmip1.

I noticed that, but because the race was not titled as a Maiden I decided to include it.

Not a bad day. Only one selection did not qualify because it was over $11. From the remaining 8 selections there was one accident of $3.37 liability for a profit of 3.28 units.

[michaelg]

Two selections today but they may be over the $11 cut-off.

Wagga R3 no.7- Another Zena
Wagga R8 no.9 - Top Cuban.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole qualifier was beaten for a profit of 0.95 units.

Today's selections are:

Wagga R3 no.9 - Adoranova
Ballarat R5 no.4 - Fandangle
Ballarat R7 no.6 - Cool Diva
Quirindi R5 no.3 - Miss Fanatik

[michaelg]

Yesterday the four selections qualified. They were all beaten for a profit of 3.80 units.

12 selections today:

Ipswich R5 no.7 - Miss Larkspur
Ipswich R6 no.7 - Sharjah
Ipswich R8 no.9 - Zahite
Rosehill R1 no.7 - Sheeznodoubt
Rosehill R6 no.7 - Kick 'N' Chase
Caulfield R1 no.1 - Sugar Babe
Morphetville R5 no.3 - Princess Joy
Gold Coast R5 no.1 - Youthful Jack
Kembla R6 no.6 - Celtic Courage
Ascot R1 no.7 - Offer me Jewels
Ascot R6 no.3 - Jay Jay Makster
Sun Coast R2 no.2 - Worthy

[Merriguy]

Great effort, Michael !!

[michaelg]

I was in two minds about including the only accident - it won three starts ago. One of the system filters is if the selection won two starts ago then it becomes a non-selection. I'm now adding this as an extra filter to the system. If I had done so, today's result would have been been 10 smiles from 10 qualifiers - bummer!

I suppose I shouldn't be too unhappy, as the system finished in front with a profit of 1.5 units.

[goty0405]

4) Minimum of 11 placed-points over last two starts.I dont understand what this means. Can you explain what you mean by 11 placed-points?

[Try Try Again]

Hi Goty0405,

My understanding is the total of the horse's past 2 starts must be >= 11

For example Sugar Babe formline was 3s784, thus its past 2 starts added up to 12 so it became a qualifier.

[michaelg]

Try, that is correct.

I'm basing the system on the premise that horses that win (or place) continue to win, and horses that lose continue to lose. It doesn't always happen but hopefully it will with our selections.

[goty0405]

Thanks fellas. I thought it might be something like that but hadnt heard that terminology used. Makes sense though.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Sandown R8 no.12 - Woodwin
Cranbourne R6 no.11 - Toomah Boy
Cranbourne R9 no.5 - Business Chick
Northam R5 no.7 - Tivation
Northam R8 no.5 - Lap Of Honour
Hobart R8 no.3 - Brodie's Boy

[michaelg]

There were only two qualifiers today for two smiles.

It has now been 7 days using the method and the results are:

30 qualifiers for 26 smiles for a profit of 9.74 units.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Narromine R4 no.6 - Chief Solano
Narromine R6 no.7 - Sports City
Narromine R8 no.1 - Altjira
Stawell R9 no.4 - Mr Martindale
Ipswich R5 no.5 - Rhodamine
Ipswich R7 no.13 - Silken Appeal
Ipswich R8 no.1 - Another Speights.

[MrFugly]

Ipswich R5 - 5 Rhodamine (220) ?

[michaelg]

Hi, MrFugly.

It is a selection as it has 12 place points. If it had won its previous start or the one before that it would have been a non selection.

[MrFugly]

3) Unplaced last start and did not win or run second at previous start.

Have the rules changed?

[michaelg]

I just checked the rules - you are right. I better remember that rule.

It is not a selection!!!

[michaelg]

From yesterday's 4 qualifiers there were 4 smiles for a profit of 3.80 units.

There have now been 30 smiles from 34 qualifiers for a profit of 13.54 units.

Today's selections:

Lismore R5 no.6 - Invincible Power
W'bool R5 no.2 - Persian Star.

[MrFugly]

W'bool R5 no.2 - Persian Star.Perhaps anything that's odds on, give it a miss! (A bit of common sense never goes astray)

[michaelg]

It makes good sense about eliminating odds-on qualifiers, but in the testing period there were a few odds-on horses that were beaten, so I'll keep them as qualifiers and see what happens.

Luckily, today's second selection qualified and was beaten which gave the method a small profit on the day.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Gold Coast R5 No.2 - Teary Eyed
Warrnambool R5 no.2 - Mookatme
Strathalbyn R5 no.3 - Laxaar.

[michaelg]

Yesterday the three selections qualified and all were beaten for a profit of 2.85 units.

Today's selections:
Rocky R4 no.6 - Guilty onscience
Gosford R7 no.9 - Aulani
Pt Augusta R4 no.3 - Dandy Jester
Pt Augusta R5 no.4 - Riverscape
Pt Augusta R6 no.2 - Nesta
Pt Augusta R8 no.3 - Rippleson
Kempsey R6 no.1 - Tha'hab
Albany R3 no.4 - Burnzy.

[1annandale1]

So the ? is what to do when two of the lays are two of the "old system" bet qualifiers . ie Ar 6no 2 kempsey r6 no 1 .

[michaelg]

Maybe toss a coin?

Seriously, if they qualify (max Lay price of $11) I will be laying them because I don't know if either the original or Try's rules for either Bet methods has ever selected a horse that is also selected under the Lay rules...sorry, Try.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's 6 qualifiers all were beaten for a profit of 5.70 units.

There have now been 40 smiles from 44 qualifiers for a profit of 22.17 units.

Today's selections:

Orange R2 no.2 - Cat Flap
Canberra R3 no.6 - River Ronald
Dalby R5 no.3 - Black Suit
Dalby R7 no.5 - Willyclang.

[michaelg]

A very bad day yesterday - 2 accidents from 4 qualifiers for a loss of 5.80 units.

Today's selections are:

Dombeen R2 no.7 - Jacqueline Rouge
Hawkesbury R6 no.5 - Back Off
Pakenham R3 no.5 - Espirit Citi
Pakenham R4 no.7 - Rescheduled
Morphetville R6 no.6 - Pinnacles
Morphetville R7 no.2 - Road Worker
Belmont R1 no.6 - Bermaise
Belmont R6 no.8 - Exiht

[michaelg]

Another losing day yesterday. From the 7 qualifiers there was one accident for a loss of 4.30 units.

There have now been 48 smiles from 55 qualifiers for a profit of 12.07 units.

Today's selections:

Seymour R7 no.14 - Red Coupe
Devenport R5 no.1 - Devil's Quest
Devenport R6 no.5 - Kelthorpe
Kalgoorlie R3 no.7 - Fer A Chaval
Kalgoorlie R4 no.5 - Mr Chat
Kalgoorlie R7 no.10 - Landscapes.

[MrFugly]

2) Unitab sole 100 pointer.

Kalgoorlie R7 - Landscapes and Soprano Rex both rated 100.

Based on rule 2, Landscapes is not a selection.

[michaelg]

You're right. Its not a selection which is a pity because the last week has now ended with a loss of 0.01 units.

[michaelg]

Two selections today:

Taree R5 no.7 - Tagus
Benalla R6 no.5 - Sneaky.