Neuralmania

[michaelg]

Because there isn't much action with the original Bet system or Try's rules I've looked at another each-way system based on the neurals.

There have only been 7 selections for the last 3 days but the results look promising.

4 winners paying a total of $17.70
6 placegetters paying a total of $10.40.

The rules are:
1) CP, CF and $ algorithyms on a setting of 3, all others on 0.
2) Must be odds-on in the neural market.
3) Won or ran second at last or second-last start.
4) No Hurdle or NTD races.

Surprisingly there are 7 selections today:

Gosford R2 no.12 - Red Spot Special
Gosford R4 no.2 - Kelendria
Kempsey R2 no.1 - Lucky Elmo
Rocky R2 no.2 - Misbablista
Rocky R5 no.8 - Run The Rapids
Rocky R6 no.9 - Red Story
Rocky R7 no.7 - Aspiran.

[Stix]

Still running your Jockey/Trainer method Michaelg?

[michaelg]

No, I've found that the neurals with those, and some of the other categories, can sometimes be too puzzling. I suppose I could apply some filters to the rules but in the meantime I'll concentrate on the current method as shown on this thread.

[michaelg]

A good day yesterday. From the 7 selections there were 4 winners for a return of $9.50, and all placed for a return of $10.30.

Today's selections:

Canberra R2 no.3 - Flaunter
Dalby R4 no.1 - Before The Storm (for a short time it was a "Try" selection).
Orange R2 no.4 - Miss Reiby.

[Try Try Again]

Great result with Orange R2 no.4 - Miss Reiby!

It paid $15.40/$2.80 on Sportsbet's Country Best dividend and an even better place dividend on Unitab of $3.10

This little system looks as if will compliment the Unitab 7 very nicely.

Again well done on your work.

[goty0405]

1) CP, CF and $ algorithyms on a setting of 3, all others on 0.

Where do you find these? I'm a bit of an AI nerd (I've done some neural network programming before) but I haven't seen a good usage yet in the horse racing frame. So im curious to have a look at this.

[michaelg]

Yes, it was a good result, but only paid $12.20 and $2.50 here in NSW.

The other two selections were very disappointing.

[Bhagwan]

Well done Michael.
Thanks for sharing your findings.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Goty0405,

The neural algorityhms are to be found on the Racing And Sports website.

Good luck.

[michaelg]

I forgot to mention in the rules that the selection must have had at least two race starts.

Today's selections:

Dombeen R6 no.3 - Orca
Hawkesbury R1 no.2 - Readyor
Hawkesbury R7 no.2 - Mount Verde
Morphetville R8 no.2 - Flying Pheonix
Sun Coast R7 no.2 - Biscays Best.

Fingers crossed...

[zetor]

What's the cp and cf.

[michaelg]

If you navigate into the neural page there are 13 categories. There is an explanation of each somewhere.

CP is career performance and CF is current form.

Let me know if you are having problems.

[zetor]

Other Options That Will Be Displayed In The RaceGuide: (Please enter the number of order)
Jockey rating
Trainer rating
Runs this campaign
Days since last win
Days since last run
Prize money - career
Prinze money - last 12 months
Predicted rating
Best rating 12 months
Rating good to fast
Rating slow to heavy
Last start details (long)
API
Prepost markets
Breeding information
WPS - jockey / horse
WPS - career
WPS - 12 months
WPS - course
WPS - course & distance
WPS - distance
WPS - fast
WPS - good to dead
WPS - slow to heavy
WPS - Group 1
Don Scott Worksheet:
- Final Rating (Default)
- Dividend (Default)
Speed Map
Neural Algorithms:
Neural Algorithms - Rating
Neural Algorithms - Pric

So I set neutal algorithms at 3,is cp-wps career where is the cf?

[michaelg]

I think you might be looking at the Feature Form.

When you first go into the R & S racing site there will be a menu on the left.

Click on to Free Daily Stats which will take you to another page.

You will then see a list with today's races.

Click on to the venue of your choice which will take you to another page.

You will then see a menu on the left where you click on to Neural Algorithyms.

This will take you to the neural page which shows the 13 categories.

There are a couple other ways to get into them but I think the way I have described might be the easiest.

[michaelg]

A horror day yesterday. No winners from the 5 selections with only 2 placegetters paying a total of $2.60.

Today's selections:

Gunnedah R1 no.2 - Sutton Princess
Gunnedah R2 no.5 - Courageous Love
Moe R4 no.8 - Forever laughing
Sun Coast R8 no.5 - Abirra
Devenport R1 no.1 - Lord Reginald
Devenport R6 no.1 - Black Glennoel
Devenport R8 no.2 - Cosmic Choice.

[michaelg]

Yesterday there were 2 winners form the 7 selections for a loss of $3.90 on win betting, and 6 placegetters for a profit of $0.74.

Two selections today;
Benalla R7 no.5 - Passed In Twice
Taree R4 no.1 - Home On The River.

[Jimmy]

Michael good luck with this, its very interesting as always.

well done

NTD race, Benalla race has 7 starters

cheers
Jimmy

[michaelg]

Thanks, Jimmy.

It is not a selection.

There were very few NTD races in the testing period so it might run well but I've never been a fan of each-way betting in these races.

[zetor]

I did what you said,but for some reason I can't set the Pr to 0,1 is the lowest I can go and do you leave the market set at 114%.

[michaelg]

Zetor, you're right - the PR category cannot be changed to zero. I leave PR at 3 and the market at 114% for the system.

However, if you want to change the market percentage then click on to the area that shows the 114%. This enables you to delete the 114% and input any figure you wish such as 100%.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole selection ran second paying $1.30.

Today's selections:
Canterbury R6 no.10 - Altitude
Mornington R3 no.4 - Norwegian
Mornington R4 no.3 - Kaeduna
Mornington R8 no.3 - Circus Polka
Mornington R9 no.8 - Miss Alia
Mackay R7 no.2 - Craiglea Falcon.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Michaelg,

Why did you not include Sixty Four - Canterbury R2#3 as there is 12 starters, rated $1.12, and ran 2nd at its only start?

[michaelg]

Its not in the rules I first listed but decided later that the selection must have had at least two race starts. I think I may have mentioned it somewhere here, if not - apologies.

[Try Try Again]

Yes Michaelg you did mention it but I missed it!

Any reason for excluding horses with only one start?

[michaelg]

Based on experience with the neurals I'm not sure if they can accurately assess them so I'm gambling (excuse the pun) they can't. Though time might prove me wrong.

[Try Try Again]

Well gambled!

[Try Try Again]

Hi Michaelg,

Looking back on the selections on my modified Neurals Odds-on selections I can see that selections must have >1 career starts makes a lot of sense as it eliminated 5 selections (1 winner @$2.00 and 1 other placing).

I will incorporate this into my selection method from now on.

Thanks for the suggestion.

[michaelg]

Try, it looks like the filter could have merit after all. Your results would now be even more impressive.

From yesterday's 5 selections there were two winners for a return of $5.60, and 3 placegetters for a return of $3.64.

Today's selections:
Randwick R1 no.6 - Setgo
Randwick R3 no.9 - Strategic Impact
Sandown R3 no.1 - Fearless Babe
Hobart R5 no.2 - She's Good As Gold
Hobart R6 no.3 - Centenary Diamond
Murray Bridge R2 no.10 - Lady Of Dormello.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Michaelg,

I have Hobart R5#2 She's Good As Gold as a selection for your method. Am I wrong?

[Try Try Again]

Forget my last post as I see you have already listed it - don't know what I was looking at!

[michaelg]

A bad day yesterday. From the 6 selections there were 2 winners paying $4.00 and 3 placegetters for a return of $3.70.

The overall Win component is in profit but Place is showing a loss.

Today's selections are:

Goulburn R4 no.3 - Morning Time
Goulburn R8 no.1 - Mylitta
Ballarat R2 no.9 - Coco Bel
Ballarat R3 no.10 - Snowflower
Townsville R1 no.4 - Taunus
Northam R6 no.2 - Lago Man.

[michaelg]

Another bad day - both Win and Place betting are now in the red. I'll give the method one more day and see what happens. At least Try's method hasn't crashed, with a huge $7.40 placegetter yesterday.

3 selections today:
Scone R2 no.2 - He Wentwhoosh
Kyneton R1 no.2 - I'm A Smarty Pants.
Ipswich R6 no.5 - Her Pic.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Michaelg,

I'm A Smarty Pants isn't a qualifier as its form is 23s53 and hence hasn't run 1st or 2nd at one of its past 2 starts.

[michaelg]

Try, you're right.

Only 2 selections today. Here's hoping.