system test for first uppers.

[george888]

can someone please run a test to see the strike rate of first uppers for ages of 3.4.5.6.7 indivitually for sat metro only.
at the the moment i am backing horses resuming only if they are aged 3.4.5 years.
i am not sure by leaving 6.7 years old out is a wise move.
on the weekend at hawkesbury testimonial won and paid $17+ but was 6 years old so i didnt have bet just wondering if there is a massive drop in strike rate as the horse gets older. the odds are usually pretty good for first uppers.

[Stix]

Hawkesbury isn't a metro track George.

Suspect you will be looking at huge LOT, but gove me a little while to come back to you....

[Stix]

Hawkesbury isn't a metro track George.

Suspect you will be looking at huge LOT, but gove me a little while to come back to you....3yo S/R 9.2% LOT 22.4%
4yo S/R 10.0% LOT 15.4%
5yo S/R 6.7% LOT 24.6%
6yo S/R 4.8% LOT 26.8%
7yo S/R 2.8% LOT 57.9%
>7yo S/R 2.5% LOT 50.1%

3,4,5 yo's LOT improves where First Up Win % is >80%

[george888]

i know Hawkesbury is not metro track but because it was a stand alone meeting last week saturday and most of the horses competing are metro sat class that why i treated as a metro meeting.

thats stix i will stick to 3.4.5 years old as the strike rate drops off as they get older . at lot of horses resuming dont make the selection rules which leaves with about 10 horses to bet on .i just wanted a general idea what the strike rate would have been. thanks again

[Stix]

If you can make it work George, you would be THE MAN! :D

[Stix]

If you can make it work George, you would be THE MAN! :DAdding 3 filters

3-5yo only

Starters 1,236
Wins 105
Return 1315
Profit +79.6
POT 6.4%

Low div 1.4
Hi div $119.5


Exclude Bris and Mel

Starters 794
Wins 68
S/R 8.5%
Return 959
Profit +165
POT 20.7%

Low div 1.7
Hi div $119.5

[Wombat2]

Could there be lay method emerging amongst those stats, say all under $15.
Maybe Stix might have some stats on that .

Cheers wombat2