3 Horses a race

[Benny]

My ratings top 3 is showing a 60% s.r. Now I want to make $200-$400 a week from my ratings.

What would you sugest.

[Brendon]

I'm assuming you can get even money on average from these combined selections.

I'm assuming about 15 bets per week.

To make 300 per week at even money with about 15 races per week (45 horses total) you would need to be betting a total of about 100 dollars per race, take or give a good or bad week.

[thorns]

First thing is, do they make a level stakes profit? If not then you will never make $300 a week. Even with a agressive staking plan, eventualy you'll hit a bad run.

If they do make a level stake profit, then from your results you should be able to work out how much is required to stake on each one.

[Benny]

They have made a level stakes profit of $78 over the last 14 months. I'm going for a small profit of $20 betting on the top 3 . What sort of bank would i need. I rekcon at least $2000.

[partypooper]

G'day Benny,I'm convinced that the "Holy Grail" will come from someone like yourself, many searchers have "TOO MUCH INFORMATION"

But to try to help, I presume that $78 is at $1 stakes ? yes .....ok, so now we need to know the exact no of bets in that 14 months.

Example, lets say you have had 780 bets, then you have made 10% POT (profit on turnover) which by the way would be considered VERY good, in fact even if you have had 3-7,800 bets , so 1-2% POT, it is still acceptable if consistant over many many years. (ask any casino boss)

so anyway you could use just about any well known staking plan, and your profits will increase slightly (based entirely on POT) however, if your profits turn to loss, then it will also be compounded by any staking plan. as all you are actually doing with a staking plan is increasing stakes??

The moral, is of course just stick to level stakes.

Though, maybe a very conservative 1% of bank NEVER REDUCING is acceptable.

Now that can be implemented in two entirely different ways: i.e.

(1) LITERALLY 1% of whatever your bank stands at worked out at the begiining of every race day, say, your bank is $1000 so $10 staked on every selection for that day, re -calculate at the end of the day but do not bet less than $10 on each the next day.so your bets can increase BUT not decrease.

(2) say your bank stands at $1000, so you bet $10 per race \ 3 selections for that race so $3.30c on each, re-calculate iether at the end of the day or at the end of each race.etc etc etc.

Good luck!

[Bhagwan]

I would bet 50 + 25 +25 = 100
Bet the most on the shortest payer

Stop at the first collect for each day, whether in profit or not.

[crash]

I go the other way, bet the 50 on the longest player!

[Brendon]

Here is the results from a system I have refined to get only one winner from. The system usually gives me one, two, three and occasionally four horses. I have used some filters to give me only one horse per selected race. I don't bet on 2YOs much or 3YOs over longer distances, or races where most of the favorites have been up forever. This is from the last 9 week Saturday class Melb.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="313" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="221"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="2" width="64"> <col style="width: 75pt;" width="100"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" height="20">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">WINNERS
</td> <td style="width: 75pt;" width="100">SELECTIONS</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">5</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">6</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">
</td> <td align="right">0</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl66" style="height: 15.75pt;" height="21"> </td> <td class="xl66" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">2</td> <td class="xl66"> </td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">TOTAL</td> <td align="right">13</td> <td align="right">34</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">38%

</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[Brendon]

I usually do the picking myself with the 3 odd selections. As soon as I follow this refined way it will no longer work. What should I do? Not follow it and let it keep on working as is and look on in wonderment, or put a stop to it by putting money on it next week? LOL

[crash]

Put your money on! I think the most important thing in punting is to trust your own judgment. I assume you are a handicapper and not a system player [nothing wrong with systems if thats your bag]. Personally I never bet more than 2 horses a race as the overall odds become lousy and hard to beat and Dutch betting should stay in Holland!

Most importantly IMHO, be aware of too much [useless] handicapping info. I have found the KISS principal works best. Tried and true.

[Brendon]

Put your money on! I think the most important thing in punting is to trust your own judgment...... Dutch betting should stay in Holland!

Most importantly IMHO, be aware of too much [useless] handicapping info. I have found the KISS principal works best. Tried and true.Thanks crash. Now all I need is for another poster to say "Don't listen to crash! Put your money on and the sytem will fall apart. Keep watching it work without your money. Its fun to think the money you coulda made!" LOL

Seriously, you are right. I tend to get very involved with too much information, then I pull back and cut the filter sytem back as far as I can go. I have a minimum of four filters: horse's winning habits, jockey rating, class rating, and the horse's suitability to the particular race, ie at Sandown they need to run hard and finish strong, Moonee Valley fast around the tight bends with good acceleration (Kaphero?). What gets through those filters I have a serious lookat.

[Bhagwan]

Two main filters to try & focus on to see if results can be improved.

.Distance.

.Number of runners.

Cheers.

[Brendon]

Two main filters to try & focus on to see if results can be improved.

.Distance.

.Number of runners.

Cheers.Distance for me comes under suitability of the horse to the race.

Number of runners? I don't like fields over 16 or under 9. But that is just experience and if I really fancy a horses chances I tend to ignore it. I haven't really thought about the number of horses.

[partypooper]

OK Brendon, cards on the table, FIRST I appologise if I was trying to tell me Granny how to blow eggs,..... if a fundamental question is asked I presume that the answer is not known by the instigator.

Now my direct question about the 74 bets (I think it was) was not to show anyone up but just to expose the fact that if the whole plan does not show a level stakes profit, you can hang from the chandalier with a 10 kg weight tied to the u know what, apply any staking plan known to man or alien and you will LOSE< LOSE< LOSE!

That's why they call me "Partypooper" cold hard facts, having said that I, as well as everyone else WANTS to be proven wrong!

Crash has been through the mill (I suspect) and knows that the holy grail is still very elusive!!

Mind you Chrome might have hit it with "just lay all late mail selections" big losses over time by backing em' so there you go!

[Brendon]

Hi Party Pooper,

sorry, there is no secret to what I claimed about a 38% win rate from single picks. As I said, I use a minimum of four filters: horse's winning habits, jockey rating, class rating, and the horse's suitability to the particular race. I select a horse in a race where all the others fall away pretty quick: one horse left.

Quite often I get 2 or three horses, occasionally 4. I only take the ones where one horse is left. Once I never had a horse at one meet. And amazingly I got 7 at another.

And there is no secret. I have read posts here and most folk have their own rating sources for different criteria. One as good as another.

I have not even bet on this system yet. I usually pick one out of the multiple selections, and occasionally I even leave the one pick if I don't like the race. But going back on my figures I found the single picks quite good. I get every from $1.50 to $11.

[partypooper]

G'Day Brendon, well you seem to be doing ok with this one, and as Crash suggested its a case of being comfortable with your own selection method/judgement. I am a self confessed whimp, and hate to lose so my main betting is place betting (very selective) though I do run several win plans along side as well but more modestly.

Its a funny thing, one can say well, as you have shown profit for 4 years + why not just increase stakes? well, I have done but have reached a level that is at the limit of what I feel comfortable with. And also I'm not sure at what point your bets are affecting the dividend (talking about place pools here)
especially at Provincial/country tracks?

Anyway, keep it up!

[crash]

[QUOTE=partypooper]

Crash has been through the mill (I suspect) and knows that the holy grail is still very elusive!!

QUOTE]

I'm on the job Party!

[lomaca]

And also I'm not sure at what point your bets are affecting the dividend (talking about place pools here)
especially at Provincial/country tracks?
Party, even a $100.00 does have a dramatic influence on the long shots, but in the range you are betting in, it's probably less. It all depends on the pool and the amount added to the pool.
There is a simple formula, used to be available from the TAB to see at a glance how your bet will affect the odds.

The biggest problem I see, is the people who follow price fluctuations, I had a place bet yesterday, when I put it on, the place odd was $2.80, sure I put on a fair amount, so it came down to $2.20. Still not too bad, but this is where the price jockeys come in. The horse finished paying $7.80 for win and $1.70 for the place, it came second or third can't remember I only bet for the place.
The point is, I would not have bet it at under $2.50 let alone $1.70.

In the lower price range it probably doesn't matter that much, I don't know.

You not only have to pick 'em you have to watch out for the hyenas coming in for the scraps of your labour.

Good luck

[crash]

Punters 'following the money' ?

[Brendon]

OK Brendon, cards on the table,... Okely Dokely.

Sandown
R2 Speedy Mac
R3 Deriasmes
R6 Tolka Rock
R7 Not A Copy

One of them should run a place, surely.

[lomaca]

Punters 'following the money' ?Touche Crash!

I probably should have made it clear, that I wasn't whining about it, just, that this is something one has to keep in mind when putting a fair amount of money on a horse using the TAB.
If you can get fixed odds, good.

Good luck

maybe we should start a thread, where this sort of posts go?
we are wandering off topic and might be reminded?
The general forum is too cumbersome.
Cheers

[Brendon]

Okely Dokely.

Sandown
R2 Speedy Mac
R3 Deriasmes
R6 Tolka Rock
R7Mr Sargood
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="1" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="17"><col style="width: 125pt;" width="167"><tr style="height: 20.1pt;" height="26"> <td style="height: 20.1pt; width: 125pt;" width="167" height="26">
</td> </tr></table>

Slight correction

[crash]

R3 Deriasmes. Hope you backed it!

[Brendon]

R3 Deriasmes. Hope you backed it!Yep. I also backed just say sumthink as a saver in the previous. So far so good. I'm going home now. I'm already in the carpark.

[partypooper]

G'Day again Brendon,

I presume you had a good day there? good on ya, though I just want to clarify that by saying "cards on the table" I didn't mean that you should post your tips, in fact that means little anyway as you would have to post every day for at least 2 years for it to mean anything.

What I was getting at is that your plan HAS to show a level stakes profit i.e. the result after backing each and every horse $1, if your returns after say 2 years are more than what you have invested you are on a winner if not , "join the club" but onesthings for sure no staking plan will alter a loss showing plan, well it will,..... i.e. greater losses!

Keep it up!

[Brendon]

Hi partypooper,

I thought I would give the system a run today. I just used your post to bounce off, so don't worry. http://www.whistlestopper.com/forum/images/smilies/smile.gif

Yeah, it worked ok. And you are right a system needs a few seasons to mature. It also picked Tonic, but it was pretty short odds so I didn't bother.

I'm sure I will hit a thud soon enough. Hopefully less of a impact than when the winners come home.