Risk Free

[Benny]

I recieved an email form a chap on the gold coast saying that he has a method of backing horses for a risk free profit. It short on details, but it dide say it cost $10000 for a copy of this amazing system and it will never lose as long as one follows the rules.

What do you guys think?

[stugots]

snap it up Benny old son, must be a winner

& just in case your interested, ive got a bridge for sale....

[Reckless]

I've seen a similar system advertised in the past (must be more than 10 years ago - maybe 15) that was basically a computer program that backed just about every runner in the race if odds permitted a profit - however miniscule. This originated from Queensland from memory. The system may have been called TOP or TOPE systems - something like that. It ran on MS-DOS - so it pre-dates Windows too. The 10K price tag also sounds familiar.

This of course was long before the days of Betfair were you can make consistent long term (but miniscule) profits 'trading' a horse that its laying at one price and backing at another.

That bridge sounds more viable................................

[moeee]

Cheap at twice the price Benny.
Just make sure you don't forget you gonna need a Betting Bank.
$10,000 asking price would make a mighty big dent in mine.
No good for me anyway because I have trouble following rules :(

[Steve M]

Sounds like a winner Benny ! At that price I'd buy two lol

[CosMos]

Benny, go for it....it sounds like a steal at that price. I have been using a system for quite some time now and I have never lost. You may have heard of it...Do Not Bet. I follow it religiously every week and my bank balance has never been better. When a better system comes along, I will take it.

Cheers
Rich

[Brendon]

I want to join up! Its sounds to good to be true.

And this bridge of which you speak, stugots, is it still available or has some lucky swine already snapped it up?

[Bhagwan]

If one were able to make say 5% on turnover betting say 90% of the field.

One would have to have a turnover of $200,000 so as to pay back the $10,000 price tag.

Generally, anyone asking for $5000+ is usually a system that is designed to catch out people who know nothing about racing.
That way if it goes pear shaped they can blame the user & not the program.

There is a Dutch betting program called Bet IE (Google)
This can actually create a book against the market where one can win 95% of the time by betting to a 93% of the market to make 3% POT allowing for commission on Betfair.

If you get bit just once , one will give most if not all of it back.
But it can work if one cherry picks the right races & knows when to stop.

The program has stronger way that it suggests like using its built in traffic lights that tells us what is the strongest betting opportunity to bet in as the market forms its prices.

My advise is to spend the $10,000 then tell us how much money you lost after a week or two.

I think you already know the answer to this my friend.

You would be better off using Bet IE for minimal risk betting.
It also has a laying program in it which measures the weight of money moving in the market, it then tells us if it is a good lay bet or not.

Can consistent profits be made on the punt?

Here is a little test for you .
If I gave you $100
Do you think you could make .40 a day, then stop each day , 7 days a week.
If so, you have answered the first part which suggests that a profit can be made out of punting.

Stopping is the most important bit.

Compounding this out the bank would double every 180 days.
Using the compounding rule of 72
.40% divided into 72 = 180

If one had a $100,000 bank.
Targeting .40% a day the stopping
That is $2800 a week
or $146,000 a year.

Have a little think about this.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

I forgot to mention the other almost risk free betting method is called Trading.

Where one backs a horse to win at say 6/1 for say $10 then lays the same horse at say 5/1 for an amount of say $12.00 to make a profit whether the horse wins or loses.
Profit $2.00 if it wins or loses.

The maths for this is this.
Back 6/1 (7.00) x $10 = $60 prof if it wins = O/L $10

Lay 5/1 (6.00) divided into the possible $60 win profit = O/L $12

Result $2.00 profit whether it wins or loses.
That's 20% risk free profit.


The Lay price has to be less than the Back price to make this work..

The price is usually best capture betting in running in races 1600m+
or 8 furlongs = 1 mile if targeting the UK market.

This gives it the best chance of being matched up before the race is over.

Try targeting horses in the 5.50-6.50 range to start with so as to get a feel for it all.

Try to back first then make the Lay bet.
This is a lot less risky than the other way round.

There are programs that can do all this for you plus some have a stop loss function built into them for added safety if the price blows out & we miss the price..
A some of them offer a free trial before you buy.

These programs don't cost thousands of dollars like your friend is trying to touch you for.

I hope this is a start answering you inquiry.

Cheers.

[Mr. Logic]

Here is a little test for you. If I gave you $100
Do you think you could make .40 a day, then stop each day, 7 days a week.
If so, you have answered the first part which suggests that a profit can be made out of punting.

Stopping is the most important bit.

My answer is no.

Some days you can start losing with your bets and just keep losing.

The quote above reminds me of the blackjack dealer at a Casino who was telling me how every gambler playing blackjack could leave a winner if they just stopped once they were in front. I replied, "And what happens if they get behind right from the start and never get in front. At what point do they stop playing and cut their losses?"

[Chrome Prince]

The quote above reminds me of the blackjack dealer at a Casino who was telling me how every gambler playing blackjack could leave a winner if they just stopped once they were in front. I replied, "And what happens if they get behind right from the start and never get in front. At what point do they stop playing and cut their losses?"

That bit is actually true.
It's well known that many players would be in front most times they play, but because of the house percentage, the longer they play, the more likely they are to lose.
That's why "winners" [not counters] are given enticements and comps to come back.
Many blackjack players who hit a run hard, can easily make up for all past losses and be in considerable profit, but they don't stop, thinking this is the day.

I once turned $250.00 in $30,000 at Crown, and I'm barred because I took my winnings and didn't return for months.

They explained how big winners must return and keep turning over, or they get barred.

But that was a long time ago.

I think most people who quit while they're ahead can win.

When the run isn't there, you just need to be able to quit and save it for another time, those that don't won't ever be ahead, because the losses will outweigh the hard hits on runs.

[Brendon]

I think most people who quit while they're ahead can win.

Yes, you can win if you leave up.

I had a system: get the 4 best paper tipsters saturday metro. Use their best tips. Simple as that. Make sure of course to leave out those best bets that contradict each other. I usually got between 2 to four tips. Very often I would win on the first one.

I went to the track and bet to win 200. Then 300. I did it for about a year, and then got bored with it. I was well ahead with two bad losing days.

I just got bored with it. Only those who have followed such a system will understand. I took a friend once. He tried it with 100 to win. We lost in race 1. We waited until race 4, and lost again. We won at short odds in race 6. I piled on a (comparitive) small fortune to win. Most of the time we just hung around and did nothing in between races. I remember him looking bored and his face was white when we won in a close one in the 6th. He never came back and I lost interest after a while. I remember being up well over 3 grand.

I always left as soon as I won. But it was dead boring.

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, that does work, and it worked because you got Bookies odds.

[stugots]

.....

[Brendon]

Yes, that does work, and it worked because you got Bookies odds.It did work. But when it loses , it can lose big.

The bookies odds didn't help the day Mahogany (slowest run race ever), Schillaci (missed the start), and Naturalism (a peice of paper floated across the course and spooked it) all lost on the same Cox Plate day day. All short odds. I will always remember that numb feeling I had in my legs and feet as I walked backto the carpark. Grown men aren't supposed to cry, I kept telling myself. LOL

[Chrome Prince]

Yeah, there was a syndicate of guys going to the greyhounds doing the same on favourites.
Pick up any paper and you'll be hard pressed to find any meeting where a favourite didn't win at least once.

But they had horrendous amounts of money on short dogs, coming into the latter half of the program, you needed nerves of steel and a big wallet when the next favourite was $1.50.

It worked, but the stress got to them in the end.

One mistake, one missed opportunity, one dog going up with the lids, jumping the rail or getting spiralled sideways and it was a bloodbath. :eek:

[thorns]

On Unitab, are the tipsters best bets the ones with an asterix? I notice some of them sometimes have two selection over a meeting with asterixs. Also what are the ones with a plus sign before them?

[Stix]

On Unitab, are the tipsters best bets the ones with an asterix? I notice some of them sometimes have two selection over a meeting with asterixs. Also what are the ones with a plus sign before them?* = Best Bet
+ = Best Eachway

* on Victoria Country/Provincial meetings (usually Rick McIntosh) = The "Tram Car Restaurant Special" for the day

[moeee]

I once turned $250.00 in $30,000 at Crown, and I'm barred because I took my winnings and didn't return for months.

They explained how big winners must return and keep turning over, or they get barred.

But that was a long time ago.



Barred from what?

They want you to return and keep turning over , yet they bar you from the establishment?
Sounds a bit contradictory to me.

I remember once I was putting out a fire in my bedroom, and then I woke up and needed to change my bedding :(

But that was a long time ago.

[Bhagwan]

I remember a dream I had...
I was trapped in a room made of Marsh-mellows.
I took the logical approach & ate myself out to freedom.

When I awoke...
I discovered my pillow was missing....?

[Bhagwan]

Those selections with an asterisk or cross, make for very good Lay bets.
"Star Bets" as I like to call them.

I did some research on them & found that if one Lay bet them with attached filter...

Start Bet selection.
.Non Fav. (No bet if market fav)
.Priced 3.50-6.00

Their SR was around 18% in this price range.

A level stakes profit of +20% POT was made.
Betting 1% of bank.
This allows for 20-30 outs.

Cheers.

[Maurice]

I recently received a colorful booklet in the mail regarding horse racing, i looked, smiled, laughed , got curious about the cute girl on page 7, added up selections , counted the wins, viewed the profits, threw it in the with yesterweeks newspapers. I didn't even bother to backward engineer.

BUT last Monday morning the phone rang, a follow up call, asking did i enjoy the brochure, stating most they sent it too phoned back with inquiries
I said i enjoyed the pictures, but this sort of thing doesn't interest me and you obviously have no idea who i am or you'd not waste 'our' time..his spiel started , so I interrupted, didn't you used to be such and such company, currently under investigation, he said i had no idea what i was talking about, i said ok, fair enough, he said again, that I am talking from my behind (and really he wasn't swearing, twas those kind of words) ....I just said, ok, good O.

and then he clicked me .....he was gone.

[Bhagwan]

They certainly are using different closing skills to make friends & influence people.

Its a pity he hung up so abruptly , he could have had a sale with slick closing skills like that.

I had a call from similar mobs in the past & there was one I recall where his first words were...
"Can you get your hands on $10,000"

I said that depends .
He said depends on what?
I said... It depends if you lend it to me.
After all you should take my word I will pay you back if you wish for me to take your word that the system works.

And that's when the abuse started .
I was laughing while he was going off...
It seemed to make him even crankier ,which made me laugh even more.
Funny ah.

[Maurice]

If you have seen that film with Vince Vaughn and Ed Harris, I think it maybe a matter of the creator of the product, hiring good sales people..maybe similar the movie , they also work in selling something else, timeshare in Fiji, etc etc
and can recognize when they are pushing to hard up hill. times money but they have to call the number in front of them, coz like the days of night clubs youth, if you don't make any calls, you don't make any sales. :D