Wet = Throw Dart?

[Stix]

Heavy Metro Races 1,789

Fav Winners = 535 29.9%
2nd Ranked = 354 19.79%
3rd Ranked = 258 14.33%

Top 3 in betting = 64.0% of all Heavy Track Winners

Top 3 in betting (Good Tracks) = 64.6% of All Good Track Winners
Top 3 in betting (Dead Tracks) = 63.4% of All Good Track Winners

Why throw darts?

[Mike367]

Now, thats a interesting set of numbers.
I'll rethink my "no bets on heavy tracks policy"
Cheers
Mike.

[goty0405]

Yeah a while back I tested some different theories and found that a FAST track was actually the "worst" performer and the wet tracks weren't as bad as people seemed to think.

[Brendon]

This is just my opinion. The worst heavy tracks are those where the rain has come down a day or two before the meeting. Why? I don't know. I just remember a lot of unfancied longshots win on those days. When there hasn't been a heavy track for quite a while, it can be treacherous. Even good wet trackers don't do so well quite often on those days. But in the middle of winter when there is a lot of slosh about and a lot of slosh form too, its like any other day.

[stugots]

This is just my opinion. The worst heavy tracks are those where the rain has come down a day or two before the meeting. Why? I don't know. I just remember a lot of unfancied longshots win on those days. When there hasn't been a heavy track for quite a while, it can be treacherous. Even good wet trackers don't do so well quite often on those days. But in the middle of winter when there is a lot of slosh about and a lot of slosh form too, its like any other day.


exactamundo

it is amazing tho how many just dont get this

[Luckyboy]

Hi Stix,

Any chance you could expand it out to the fourth favourite. I think you'll find it covers off near enough to 80% of all winners, all track conditions.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

[Stix]

Hi Stix,

Any chance you could expand it out to the fourth favourite. I think you'll find it covers off near enough to 80% of all winners, all track conditions.


Cheers,
LuckyboyTop 4 in betting = 75% of all Heavy Track Winners
Top 4 in betting (Good Tracks) = 75.3% of All Good Track Winners
Top 4 in betting (Dead Tracks) = 74.1% of All Good Track Winners

[Stix]

Heavy Metro Races 1,789

Fav Winners = 535 29.9%
2nd Ranked = 354 19.79%
3rd Ranked = 258 14.33%

Top 3 in betting = 64.0% of all Heavy Track Winners

Top 3 in betting (Good Tracks) = 64.6% of All Good Track Winners
Top 3 in betting (Dead Tracks) = 63.4% of All Good Track Winners

Why throw darts?1st ranked
Won at least once in Heavy
Never won @ distance
35.6% S/R 3% POT

1st ranked
Won at least once in Heavy
Never won @ distance
At least one win @ Track
43.66% S/R 13% POT

[crash]

This is just my opinion. The worst heavy tracks are those where the rain has come down a day or two before the meeting. Why? I don't know. I just remember a lot of unfancied longshots win on those days. When there hasn't been a heavy track for quite a while, it can be treacherous. Even good wet trackers don't do so well quite often on those days. But in the middle of winter when there is a lot of slosh about and a lot of slosh form too, its like any other day.

Gotto agree with that. In the slosh, chances of a win are similar to that on a good track. But wait, there is a good reason !!!

As far as the stats go originally put up, well there is stats and stats [decide a position and then find 'stats' to fit].

Everything seems about even going regarding % outcomes between good and heavy tracks. In reality however, they become a little tricky in what they actually show and why the win chances of a pick are about even.

Heavy tracks have as much as 30% less runners on a card than on good tracks, so of course 1st. 2nd and 3rd favorites on a heavy track have a high success score [similar to good tracks] because they have less runners. And in the scheme of things, we should also remember that smaller fields have lower SP prices [not an insignificant point].

Have a look at stats that show equal field sizes for heavy and good tracks and as far as 1st, 2nd. and 3rd fav. go, we see a totally different picture. Of course, this little bit of % significance has been left out of the heralded stats initially presented here.

Look at it this way, if a field of 12 runners has 4 scratchings because of a heavy track, naturally the % of 1st, 2nd. and 3rd favorites getting up in the heavy are going to look good. As good as 1st. 2nd and 3rd. favorites getting up in the good in a field of 12 runners! The fact the % is about even for the field of 8 compared to the field of 12 says a lot! Get what I mean?

Just my 2c worth anyway.

[Stix]

<8 Runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 89.8%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 89.3%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 89.4%

8-12 runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 73.1%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 74.1%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 75.2%

>12 Runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 63.9%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 65.5%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 65.7%

[Steve M]

Have to agree with your comments about field sizes as well Crash.

In Melbourne we don't get that many metro tracks that are heavy these days.

Think the greatest danger with wet tracks is when they occur during the middle of a dry patch [summer which has happened] as you're generally faced with a group of horses that have no recent exposure. Form can become guesswork.

Generally I'd say wet tracks don't have to stop you betting, although it depends on your own form factors.

I'd say fitness becomes an added factor to consider. Have to be careful about backing horses first/second up.

Tempo of a race can become an added factor, especially where you have one clear leader in a race, where it can be hard to make ground and run down the leader.

[Stix]

Generally I'd say wet tracks don't have to stop you betting, although it depends on your own form factors.

Fully agree Steve M, IMHO this is why people dislike wet tracks, as it's hard for them to adjust their approach.

Crash your right Stats are stats, but they are presented to assist others to think about their own approach. Maybe Wet tracks aren't the mine field some think.

That is all...

[crash]

<8 Runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 89.8%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 89.3%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 89.4%

8-12 runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 73.1%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 74.1%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 75.2%

>12 Runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 63.9%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 65.5%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 65.7%

In the real world your figures are absolutely meaningless Stix [what does 'wet' mean and please supply source of your stats].<8 Runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 89.8%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 89.3%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 89.4%

8-12 runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 73.1%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 74.1%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 75.2%

>12 Runners
Top 4 in Market - Wet = 63.9%
Top 4 in Market - Dead = 65.5%
Top 4 in Market - Good = 65.7%

Naturally your stats look appropriately even. Take a position [heavy tracks produce as many winners re: !st. 2nd. 3rd fav. as good tracks] and wack up stats that suit from the either.

[crash]

Fully agree Steve M, IMHO this is why people dislike wet tracks, as it's hard for them to adjust their approach.

Crash your right Stats are stats, but they are presented to assist others to think about their own approach. Maybe Wet tracks aren't the mine field some think.

That is all...

No minefield at all Stix. Zoe got a $45 winner yesterday [heavy] and I got 4 out of 5 winners last Sat. on wet tracks. All I'm saying is that wet tracks do not equal easy wins. Given equal numbers of runners in race, give me a good track anyday.

[Stix]

No minefield at all Stix. Zoe got a $45 winner yesterday [heavy] and I got 4 out of 5 winners last Sat. on wet tracks. All I'm saying is that wet tracks do not equal easy wins. Given equal numbers of runners in race, give me a good track anyday.Agreed, no such thinga as an easy win...agree Good Tracks are more welcomed than wet.

[Maurice]

As my 1st post. The thread caught my eye.
Fav data is always subjective, they around win 30% all the time, that's even before we had computers......on an average of 11 starters, & you can give or take a starter.
If you find a niche where this up or down, you'll find that your average price has now lowered or gotten higher.....wet tracks have slightly smaller fields, thus price will be shorter, strike rate higher.
The sample submitted was Heavy metro, less than 2000 races, i got to say, it's hardly a sample, but then again, Waw .. it looks to be about 10 years of data.
Normally there are about 1500 races a month, & over a 1000 the TAB handles. think about it, 2000 races in 10 years, equates to 200 a year, 4 a races week... & metro races are less than even 25% of racing. and i am sure those dead tracks at carnival time was really slow ... :)
Such small data on the overall scheme means a very little..specially using favs, as these are after the fact. My $3.20, became 2.80, after they jumped. or v.v

Try the top prize money earner, the most consistent(win and/or place) strike rate up or down?, do horses with a win % of between 15-25%, do better on wet?

Also, think about metro tracks, best horses, best trainers... trainer thinks, i can scratch him, i already have him entered on Wednesday at Canterbury.
AT Lismore , Swan Hill or Coulandra , the trainer with only 4 horses often can't afford to scratch.

At a home track, or more so, if your a large trainer, you can afford to scratch, try traveling from whoop whoop to the city ,only to be caught in a flash storm, , what was good is now slow. i have 2 of my 4 horses with me, and the farrier and vet are expecting their accounts settled at the end of the month. - small samples are filled with such data

In the end, the most knowledge i took out of wet tracks, was noting the scratched horses on wet track raceday, why were they scratched? how did they perform when they eventually hit a wet track?

& its a luxery now, in the early 90's i was discovering on 386's. armed with a tiny 40m HD's a handful of disks and alarm clock, the computers cooked all night.

Hopefully I moved the dart board a bit.:)

[darkydog2002]

Hi Ya Maurice,
Here,s a thought .

Bet any in the top 4 at $5 +

Cheers.
darky

[Maurice]

Hi Ya Maurice,
Here,s a thought .

Bet any in the top 4 at $5 +

Cheers.
darkyVery cool, very sound and very real.

[Brendon]

I have had a rethink based on a bit of research of my own figures. From my database - although not as big as some boast here - the value goes right out of wet tracks for me.

So what if the stats show the same number of favorites winning. Post after post after post here says the favorites are poison to long term profit: the tote squeezes the goodness out of their price. Maybe moreso on wet days. My results show it.

You can't look at the ratio of faves getting up in the wet to justify betting on soggy tracks. Unless you are making a profit on backing faves. And nobody here is. The over-riding philosophy here seems to be looking for false favorites.

My selection process makes more money out of dry tracks. I usually stay away from wet tracks. But I have selected one or two good winners over the last season. I think I have just been lucky and that clouded my thinking. When I ran my selection process thru 25 wet tracks days (about 200 races) my POT was well down. 20% less winners, but when I did win the av price was lower. Maybe it is just easier for the bookmakers to identify the potential winners. Or just because the fields are smaller, or because so many scratchings upset my system. Whatever, it goes down. I tried to tweak a bit here and there to accomodate for the conditions, but it seemed that it was the short odds on reasonably favored horses that got me.

(P.S. my selection criteria has been honed over 3 years, so I figure 200 wet day races was enough to see if there was a pattern)

[syllabus23]

"Quote" Jockey BJ Melham after riding his fourth winner for the day, race eight at Sale yesterday, "Charlies Queen" drawn barrier "1" "

"I had to get her to the outside fence,you couldn't win down the inside !!!!"


Quote Gary Creasy (?) North Coast on course tipster,,(nice approachable guy)

"It's impossible to tip on these (wet) days.It's just a question of who finds the fast lane first!!!!".

And on and on ad infinitum...........

I go to the races two or three times a week.Dry days I punt,wet days its pie and chips and a chat to the locals.

Anyway,,, I'm off to the races :)