Form from slowly run races

[crash]

Post deleted. No acknowledgement of the writer or the source of the article. Posting huge chunks of someone's writings is usually a breach of copyright. Moderator.

[Moderator 3]

Where is the source for that article please? Also, is it a copyright protected article? If so you are not permitted to copy and paste the article. Moderator 3.

[Steve M]

I don't really get the point of the article, it's written like slowly run races are some exception we rarely see. The opposite is the truth. Majority of races tend to be horses show speed early, find a position then settle till the sprint home.

“Take little notice of race results where the overall time is slow” could only be good advice on the assumption the majority of races aren't slowly run. I'd say that's incorrect. You don't ignore it, you just have to analyse further.

And all form is relative. Any horse can run any distance, carry any weight, handle any condition against the right [inferior] competition.

[Maurice]

A piece of the puzzle, if your a hcp'r maybe a reason you look elsewhere for that qualifying run...and in the recent past, say, the last 2 years , I hear, watching a race many a speed map has been thrown in the bin with a whats the point feel to it.

[Reckless]

Why do we see such great variation in pace these days ?. Is it due to better tactics developed by jockeys / trainers - perhaps international influence with different riding styles etc ? Maybe more initiative given to jockeys to make an on the spot decision.

[Brendon]

Where is the source for that article please? Also, is it a copyright protected article? If so you are not permitted to copy and paste the article. Moderator 3.Just as a clarification for myself, I thought you were only not supposed to post the whole article. The whole article isn't posted here.

[Moderator 3]

On my understanding depending on the length of a copyright article a paragraph or a few paragraphs are OK for fair comment. Acknowledgement of the source must also be provided.

[crash]

It was not the whole article [about 5000 less words]. As the writer owns another website relating to racing and also sells a selection service, I thought the rule here was not to publish other site names that might compete with this site [?]

As far as copyright goes, yes there is copyright on material sent to selection service and sectional times clients [and I was one for 12 mths], but not on freely available material on the site. Nothing I posted in this thread or any other was or has been from any information I received as a client. In hindsight I should have printed the author's name, but that would have lead to the site ...Catch 22.

I'm quite happy to put the author's name as a credit on the [part] article, but it is no longer here.

[lomaca]

Catch 22.yes crash,
not wanting to inflame the matter but I agree with you.
I'm familiar with both the site and the article in question, I even thought to myself, crash is learning and behaving himself by blocking the reference to the site.
There is such a thing as being afraid of one's own shadow I think!

Good luck

[Maurice]

The effect of this article was far more interesting than the actual article.

I am not sure about catch 22. When i joined, i read the forum rules.
I did not pay to become a member, before joining , read pages upon pages of threads, all for free. I am really knowledgeable and make a living gambling on horses and am unlikely to become a customer(personally). BUT!

If i was NEW to racing and maybe the internet in this area, checking out the websites, products, weighing up what to buy, who's the best ...why would i buy a product from a website who's actual long term members keep sending me elsewhere. A potential client is hoping all the answers are here.

[lomaca]

yes crash,
not wanting to inflame the matter but I agree with you.
I'm familiar with both the site and the article in question, I even thought to myself, crash is learning and behaving himself by blocking the reference to the site.
There is such a thing as being afraid of one's own shadow I think!

Good luckLet it go Crash, not worth it!

[crash]

I'm going to do just that. My initial intention with this thread was to improve punting knowledge, not to create controversy.

[Moderator 3]

When i joined, i read the forum rules.
I did not pay to become a member, before joining, read pages upon pages of threads, all for free. I am really knowledgeable and make a living gambling on horses and am unlikely to become a customer (personally). Maurice this site does not sell any racing package memberships. Moderator 3.

[Maurice]

I apologize for not being clearer Moderator3, i was referring to the phrase catch22 and general forum rules regarding deletions and discretionary powers etc and i am not sure what a "racing package membership" is.

[Steve M]

Why do we see such great variation in pace these days ?. Is it due to better tactics developed by jockeys / trainers - perhaps international influence with different riding styles etc ? Maybe more initiative given to jockeys to make an on the spot decision.
Is there such a wide variation? Has it not always been like this?

[Brendon]

Form from slowly run races.

Lets look at Sandown and compare two 1200M races:

The Open 1200M hcp won by Signor Socks (R.6), and the 2YO 1200M won by Denamn

The Open was actually a litle slower than the 2YO 1200 (R.3) The first 600 for the 2YO was 39.2secs, but the first 600 for the Open race was nearly a second slower!

My clock said 1:15.60 for the 2YO race and 1:15:72 for the Open race. So the last 600 for the open race was a bit faster. Big deal.

There should be about 6 lengths, or 1 second (correct me if I'm wrong) between 2 year olds and open races. Give or take. So, the open race was waaaay slower, when taken into consideration.

The faster run 2YO race was won by the predictable favorite Denman. Even I won on that.

The slow Open race was run by an unlikely leader/winner. But oh yeah, there was In The Shadows and Silky Smooth trying to run down the sit and sprint run of Signor Socks in the last 200. Congrats to Yendall for getting away with it.

But where was the pressure from the better horses earlier on? Moreso In The Shadows who was closer to the lead in the first 600 but never put any pressure on in what was really a dawdle.

IMO, the jockeys on better horses primed in the Open race allowed tactics to beat them.

[Reckless]

Yeah I reckon those following Yendall expected his ride to fall in a heap - and got caught napping.

[crash]

Form from slowly run races.

Lets look at Sandown and compare two 1200M races:

The Open 1200M hcp won by Signor Socks (R.6), and the 2YO 1200M won by Denamn

My clock said 1:15.60 for the 2YO race and 1:15:72 for the Open race. So the last 600 for the open race was a bit faster. Big deal.

There should be about 6 lengths, or 1 second (correct me if I'm wrong) between 2 year olds and open races. Give or take. So, the open race was waaaay slower, when taken into consideration.



Both races were VERY slow. 1.10 [Record for Sandown is 1.07.74] would be a reasonably quick race over 1200m on a good or dead track, but 1.15? That's about 30 lengths outside a decent time and over 40 lengths outside the track record! Was the track a heavy 9 or something?

[Brendon]

A heavy 10, I think.

I'll try and find similar conditions at Sandown and get back on that one. I ditched record times as a comparison because of the conditions and tried to find a comparison between races on the day.

Postscript: Avdulla must have learnt his lesson because he got up a lot closer to the lead with Greatwall Of China in the last.

I'm still trying to nut out wet days.....

[Brendon]

Moonee Valley 8 June Kindrate 1:17 for 1200 on a Heavy 10.

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="133">1200m RECORD

</td><td valign="top" width="65">16.09.06

</td><td valign="top" width="121">Miss Andretti

</td><td valign="top" width="62">55kg

</td><td valign="top" width="57">1-09.29

</td><td valign="top" width="64">GOOD3

</td><td valign="top" width="44">4.34

</td><td valign="top" width="50">True

</td></tr></tbody></table>

[Brendon]

Hmm, so its the same diff, give or take a few lengths.

NB: The only "Heavy 10" I could find this year was at MV.

[crash]

For times I use a fairly simple equation that I've used for years: +1 sec. for dead, + 3 sec. for slow and plus 5 sec. for heavy. Not dead accurate for sure but does a reasonable job. Watch out for weight increases though!

[lomaca]

For times I use a fairly simple equation that I've used for years: +1 sec. for dead, + 3 sec. for slow and plus 5 sec. for heavy. Not dead accurate for sure but does a reasonable job. Watch out for weight increases though! Crash,

Checked a few tracks in VIC. and you are spot on for heavy and slow, but DEAD is nearly the same as slow (3 sec.) according to my par times.
It may be an anomaly of the few tracks I looked at, but I suspect that many "dead' tracks actually were on the slow side?

Still, not a bad approximation.

Cheers

[Brendon]

The track record for 2100 at Sandown Lakeside is 2.07.52

Britomart won (my time) in 2.19.88.

12 secon difference

Britomart slaughtered the opposition going away by 6 lengths from the 350. Could have been 10 lengths if the jockey pushed it. Now, either it was a reasonably paced raced and Britomart was too fast and good on the day against an average, tiring mob - or Britomart whipped all the opposition after a dawdle by over 6 lengths coasting home all in the last 350 metres.

I don't think Britomart is that fast in the straight. Some of those horse have won metro Saturday class open handicaps. It must have been run at a reasonable pace. And yet, it is over 12 seconds slower than the record.

5 seconds might be ok. But not for last Saturday.

[crash]

Sounds like a jog and sprint in a slowly run race which races at that distance often are. Britomart obviously still had plenty of petrol in the tank [slow early pace] and possibly a dryer alley.

[Brendon]

As far as I could see Abitofado, Rubijon, and Red Buttons swapped the lead for the first 1400, mainly because every time Abitofado got in front for a only short while it did try to slow it up. Rubijon trailled in Britomart's lane in the straight. The only thing I can think is that Britomart was the one horse in the race that really loves heavy, heavy going.

The 1200 record is 1.08.97. Both Saturday's efforts were around 1.15.80. Thats about 8 seconds.

The 1600 is 1.34.87. Both Saturday's efforts (not R5) were around 1.44.80. Thats about 10 seconds.

The Mares 1600 (R5) was a rack'em and stack'em affair with stablemates Clandon and Partiva getting to the front and slowing things down. The started moving from 500M out. That race was nearly a second slower.

[Brendon]

The 10 June (midweek) Sandown Lakeside was a similar raceday with a Heavy 9 rating. The races were all about 2-3 seconds faster than Saturday's.

I think there is a variation because of the conditions, even if the conditions are read out as similar. I usually compare times from the same race day.

[crash]

Interestingly, Echuca [heavy 10] yesterday only had 2 races [7 and 8] with leaders in them to set up a bit of pace and both races were won by backmarkers.

Generally though I'm ignoring backmarkers on heavy tracks as the races on heavy going seem to be more about tactics than pace. Get out in front and try and control a slow pace, then sprint!

[Reckless]

Britomart was the best very heavy tracker in that Sandown race. The other chances had reasonable form on heavy but not outstanding. Rubijon was ridden out of character to try and stay with the pace - so clearly they didn't think he had any chance from back in the field on that track.

[Brendon]

Yes, any backmarker with a chance (and form) has a reasonable weight on it anyway, and therefore is disadvantaged in the slog. On saturday they were chuning up porridge not clumps.

Makes With Decorum's run home all the more impressive since it nearly won from a way back in the only real sit and sprint race of the day.

[Brendon]

And if times in the mud mean anything, Stoneblack should win today.

[Brendon]

Hmmmm? Didn't win as easily as I thought. IAS opened fixed at $2.78 at about 11.28am, but 20 minutes before the race it was down to $1.50. I was a bit slow and got on at $2.30.

Stoneblack ran just about the fastest sectional on Saturday of any race. I was convinced it was going to win today's Maiden by upteen lengths. I'm putting my abacus and slide rule away.

[crash]

Stoneblack ran just about the fastest sectional on Saturday of any race.

Probably ran a gut-buster on Sat.