Simple system test

[m_v2040]

Hi guys can someone please run a simple query for me? Total POT on all favourites over last year and total POT on all favourites down in distance between 100 and 600 meters (seperate queries)?

[lomaca]

Hi guys can someone please run a simple query for me? Total POT on all favourites over last year and total POT on all favourites down in distance between 100 and 600 meters (seperate queries)?This is on more than 3 to four years of data

Fav. S/R 32.62% POT -11.01%

Fav down >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.48% POT -9.62%

You have to realise that when a horse is favorite, any additional filter has negligible effect on return and strike rate. Unless of course a 1 or 2 % makes a difference for you, then it can be important.

Good luck

[m_v2040]

Thanks for that, much appreciated. Could i trouble you run that same query but only where the fav is male?

[lomaca]

Fav. all S/R 32.62% POT -11.01 %
-----------------------------------------
Fav. colts S/R 33.30 % POT -9.28 %
Fav. geldings S/R 32.68 % POT -10.84 %
Fav. fillies S/R 33.40 % POT -10.7 %

Fav down-dist all >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.48% POT -9.62%
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fav down-dist colts >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.95% POT -7.78%
Fav down-dist geldings >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.46% POT -9.71%
Fav down-dist fillies >=100 and <=600 S/R 33.40% POT -10.7%

Good luck

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[Bhagwan]

I believe one will see a difference in what sort of favs win depending on price range & field size.

Example
All Favs approx 30%W Plc 62%
This includes odds-on horses which on their own win 55% of their races

Favs 1-7 runners 40%W SR

Favs priced $2.80+ = 24%SR
This is the value range one likes to hit upon.
Any less & it starts to get really hard to pull a profit.

Favs priced $4.70-6.00 18% W SR
These can make for good laying possibilities.

Favs in 9 runners & less 70%Plc SR
Delete females that are competing against males & are Fav 75%

If one were to back all Favs in races 1-7 priced 2.90 & less & deleting the competing females , it shows a slight profit.
Any more & it shows a loss.

The Fav will run 2nd or 3rd 32% of the time .
They percentage between the the two varies slightly month to month & year to year.

Favs in Maiden events who are having their first career start have the highest W% of all ... weird.


Check out the interactive UK site by Adrian Massey (Google) where one can crunch some ideas.

Maybe try & break up ones research over field sizes.
1-7
8-9
10-12
13-15
16-20

Its all very well to get a SR on a fav.
Its another to get the price you fell you need to back it.

Cheers.