Anyone with a Unitab data base?

[michaelg]

I've been checking a method to lay the fave, and hope someone with a Unitab data base can test it.

The rules are:

1) The race must have 10 starters or more.
2) Every horse must have 90 Unitab points or more.


Over the past two weeks there have been 36 races. Of these, only two faves have won, paying $3.30 and $3.00 on Unitab. Interestingly, some of the win and exotic divvies have been quite large.

[michaelg]

If anyone's interested there is one qualifying race today:

Mackay R8

[stugots]

min 10 starters
min field unitab rating of 90

races reviewed - 3973
bets 318
winners 78 - 25%
losers 240
collect less 5% bf commission $228
payout at unitab sp $186
net profit $42
pot 13%

problem of course is the price layed at, if one can lay at or below unitab sp then ok, if not then 13% doesnt give a lot of room to play with

as to filters -

100 raters losing $16.3
sum of last 3 placings not broken by a spell <=6 losing $11.3
> in weight excluding app claims >=3.0kg losing $7.2

reduced bets to 173
winners 26 - 15%
lifted profit to $75.8
pot 43%

not a lot of action but i would think one could comfortably lay the fav 9 times out of 10 at less than 40% above unitab sp

[stugots]

& that includes all races types from a lowly country maiden to wfa - no race type stood out as being a worse risk (contrary to often held popular belief)

[michaelg]

Thanks, Stugots.

It seemed so promising when looking at the past 14 days.

[stugots]

looks ok to me Michael

[michaelg]

The accident strike rate of 25% is less than the average of approx 30%, but this is counterbalanced by the higher average divvy because of the larger fields. I think the 13%, after Betfair's take-out is what would be expected when laying all faves?

Interestingly, the fave (no.1) in today's qualifying race was beaten.