Saturday Racing/Trifecta Systems

[MarcusSR20]

Hi all,

I have only just recently got into racing in the past month and have managed turned $200 into $3000 and am wondering whether or not it may have a been a bit of luck or a bit of something else..

When the missus and I got Foxtel a couple of months ago we started putting on a few Trifecta's and $2 each ways here and there.. and we've been landing quite a few of them - I accidently put on 2 half unit Trifecta's which were exactly the same, and it came in!! - $1500 lol. The missus put an each way on a horse which ended up paying 110:1! (The Trifecta's were placed, just by looking at the basic form on the internet).. After this, I decided to maybe take it seriously and see if we can actually make money off it consistantly, not as a professional gambler, but more as just a hobby as I already have a steady income..

The weekend, which just went by I had arranged for a mate to come round and have a punt with me.. I managed to turn $180 into $700!.

I bought Best Bets on Friday (I dont like looking at what they think will win, I just like reading the information which they provide eg horses last start, how it finished, whether it can swim, weight its carrying, barrier which its starting from etc etc..) I studied it for a good few hours on Friday night and worked out what horses I would pick for the Trifecta's (only MR and SR) - So out of the 16 races total I landed 4 Trifecta's (25% hit rate last weekend) ..and a couple of e/w's at 10, 15:1

This weekend im going to do the same thing again - throw in $200, plan my bets on Friday night and see how I go..

My question to you is, whether or not this is classified as a system and whether or not its possible to come out infront long term?

I figure that as long as it's a decent Trifecta - all I need to do is land 1 and I'm up for the day!

Trifecta System:

Out of the 16 races, I put down 16 Trifecta's (variation of boxed 3 and boxed 4).

*If its a small field, say less then 10 horses - I will pick 3 horses at a full unit ($6)
*If theres more than 10 horses in the race - I will pick 4 horses at half unit ($12)

*I always pick 2 horses that I think will win, and 1 or 2 that "might win" or least have a chance - so if it does come in, at least there is a bit of value in it..

*If I get up from one of those Trifecta's, I'll increase a couple of the other half unit Trifecta's to Full units throughout the afternoon.

Each Ways:

*If I win some cash through the afternoon, I usually throw on a couple of each way bets ($5 and $10 each ways). I NEVER put each ways on anything less than 10:1..
*Just before the race starts I'll memorize the horses which are paying between 10 and 20:1, then quickly look at those horses previous form and place an each way based on that - You would be sooo surprised how many times we pulled that off last weekend haha..

My bro told me that out of the whole history of horse racing he reckons that the favourite only wins 25% of the time... I dunno how true that is, but if you base it off that, it means that you should never back a favourite at anything less than 4:1, I figure..

Anyways, back to the question.. So you guys reckon that it may be possible to make money using this way off betting in the long run?

Anybody know of any other Trifecta systems that have worked for them in the past?

Cheers,

Marcus

[Bhagwan]

Just keep doing what you are doing Marcus,

Try not to look at any more information than what you are currently looking at otherwise we end up with analysis paralysis.

Try & keep it simple the way you are doing it.
Try not to add anything more because we think it will make it better because it usually doesn't.

You are having a very good run so don't change anything.
If we have a bad run say 9 outs in a row, try & stop & wait until we see 2 successes get up before recommencing.

Try & bet to a ratio of 100/1 -200/1
e.g. $6 bets $1200 bank.
This allows for any runs of outs, that happens to everyone on sooner or later.
It also helps with our confidence levels which is vital for making bold profitable decisions.

Try & keep the Trifecta outlays as low as possible because they have a habit of having long runs of outs, sorry I don't wish to put a downer on you, just try & be prepared, very few people get strike rates like that for Trifectas.

The Fav stats for winning is 30% , this includes odds-on shots.
But if priced $2.80+ , their SR is 24%

Cheers.

[Stix]

Take out 80%, spend it and play with the rest.....!!

[crash]

Hi all,

I have only just recently got into racing in the past month and have managed turned $200 into $3000
Marcus

A new punter that has turned $200 into $3000 in one month! You certainly need no advice here. Just keep doing what your doing!

[MarcusSR20]

Just keep doing what you are doing Marcus,

Try not to look at any more information than what you are currently looking at otherwise we end up with analysis paralysis.

Try & keep it simple the way you are doing it.
Try not to add anything more because we think it will make it better because it usually doesn't.

You are having a very good run so don't change anything.
If we have a bad run say 9 outs in a row, try & stop & wait until we see 2 successes get up before recommencing.

Try & bet to a ratio of 100/1 -200/1
e.g. $6 bets $1200 bank.
This allows for any runs of outs, that happens to everyone on sooner or later.
It also helps with our confidence levels which is vital for making bold profitable decisions.

Try & keep the Trifecta outlays as low as possible because they have a habit of having long runs of outs, sorry I don't wish to put a downer on you, just try & be prepared, very few people get strike rates like that for Trifectas.

The Fav stats for winning is 30% , this includes odds-on shots.
But if priced $2.80+ , their SR is 24%

Cheers.I havent even thought about the ratio to spending, as every weekend I chuck $30+ worth of multibets away on the football anyway - Its soo impossible to land multibets, the bounce of a ball can determine the outcome and its really turned me off it..

Playing the pokies is probably the most inconsistant of them all, where there is no form/skill/system to give you an edge whatsoever.

I have a steady income, so I'll probably keep going with this every weekend untill I dont make anything 2-3 weeks in a row and probably lower my investment from $200 down to $100 maybe.. - I dont think I'll wait till Im down 9 weeks in a row lol..

Yeah Im imagining that it would be quite hard to constantly land trifecta's otherwise everybody would be doing it.. A mate of mine is trying to convince me to start laying down hundred's and pretty much boxing the whole field, so that Trifecta's will always land - depending on how much you win/lose depends on the odds of the horses coming in of course, but I dont think its as easy as that, otherwise once again, everybody would be doing it..

[MarcusSR20]

A new punter that has turned $200 into $3000 in one month! You certainly need no advice here. Just keep doing what your doing!Beginners luck mate! lol - probably burn out by this wekend lol..

[crash]

A mate of mine is trying to convince me to start laying down hundred's and pretty much boxing the whole field, so that Trifecta's will always land - depending on how much you win/lose depends on the odds of the horses coming in of course, but I dont think its as easy as that, otherwise once again, everybody would be doing it..

There is a big TAB takeout on trifecta's and other exotics. I'd say you have had some serious beginner's luck so far. In your shoes I'd be cashing in everything above your initial $200 outlay if you have an account. Forget about boxing fields, you'll go broke in no time. Winning on trifecta's requires more luck than common sense I think. I'd consider being blessed with the former so far.

What criteria are you using to choose your selections?

Good Luck!

[Management]

Bhagwan, your current registered forum e-mail address appears to be invalid.

Please log in and go to User CP - link at top left - to update your e-mail address ASAP as an e-mail from OZmium Management to your current registered forum e-mail address bounced.

Thank you.
<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

[MarcusSR20]

There is a big TAB takeout on trifecta's and other exotics. I'd say you have had some serious beginner's luck so far. In your shoes I'd be cashing in everything above your initial $200 outlay if you have an account. Forget about boxing fields, you'll go broke in no time. Winning on trifecta's requires more luck than common sense I think. I'd consider being blessed with the former so far.

What criteria are you using to choose your selections?

Good Luck!"There is a big TAB takeout on trifecta's and other exotics." - What does this mean exactly? - That the TAB collect a lot more than they should out of the pool?

I have already collected out of my account! My plan is to empty the till at the end of every race day..=)

"Winning on trifecta's requires more luck than common sense I think."- That is what im trying to work out, whats the difference in looking at the form and stats of one horse and looking at the forms and stats of 3 or 4 horses? I am not doubting the fact that a lot of it is luck - but im talking about that edge which you get by looking into the race a bit. Im happy to invest $6-$12 flat betting on each race and have the possibility to increase my payout by at least 1000% per race, as opposed to put $3-$12 each way on each race, pick 1 horse and only have the possiblity to multiply my bet by at least 500% if that.. I know the chances of landing 1 horse is by far better than landing 3..

What criteria are you using to choose your selections?All 16 races which I put on were on Heavy, so that was probably the main thing which I looked at (that couldve been a downfall though as some of the horses have never run on heavy before) I havent had a chance to check if any of them ended up being ducks or not...

I'll tell you a couple of the ones which I ended up winning on, on Saturday and the reasons why I picked those particular horses:

11/7/09
Sandown R4 1600m Result:
1 9. Pliers 19.00
2 4. Apprehend 15.00
3 2. Eau De Joie 3.00

2,4,8,9 - boxed @ half unit - $12

2. Eau De Joie - heavy 2-1-1-0, Ran 2-12 2040m race, 1st at the distance (1600m) before that.. - (The Horse loves the wet and can run the distance no worries)
4. Apprehend - heavy 5-1-2-1, 2-12 its 2nd last start @ the distance (1600m) - (Horse loves the wet but it came 8th its last start, but came 2nd the time before that @ the distance) - I guess with this one I was hoping for a bit of value and hoping some punters may have overlooked its second last start to keep the value up.. worked out ok as it ended up being 15:1 for the win.
9. Pliers - heavy 2-1-0-0, 10-12 its last start, but 1-11 the start before that (1200m but led 2.5 lengths all the way) - I guess with this one I thought the horse loves the wet and it can definately run the distance, I was also hoping that the punters would overlook its 2nd last start and I guess they did with the market at $19 for it to win.

8. Arinya - I dont think this horse came 4th but I picked it and probably shouldnt have - on heavy 0-0-0-0, although last start at 1400m it won by 1 length - comments said that it was going well on soft ground, but I guess there is a big difference between soft and a puddle.


Sandown R6 1200m Result:
1 12. Signor Socks 31.00
2 1. In The Shadows 4.20
3 5. Silky Smooth 2.90

1,5,9,12 - boxed @ half unit - $12

1. In The Shadows - heavy 1-1-0-0, 1-13 last start at the distance (won by 1 length) - With this horse I thought that for a horse to win by 1 length against 13 other horses is pretty good - I guess other punters thought the same thing as the price ended up being 4:1
5. Silky Smooth - heavy 1-1-0-0, Last start 6-14 @ 1000m 2 lengths, comments said it was an even effort. - God knows why I picked this horse now that Im looking back at it, I guess because it was because its only win came from 1 heavy start..
12. Signor Socks - heavy 5-2-1-0, Last start came 2-8 on heavy, comments said that it came from the back and finished well, carrying the least amount of weight at 53kgs this race.. - I have got no idea why more punters didnt back this one at $31..

9. Amerryking - I dont think this horse came 4th but I picked it because its heavy was 4-2-1-1, last start ran the distance and came 2nd, comments were "made good ground"..

Geez it takes ages typing this up..lol Looking back at it I guess the main thing which I looked at was horses that have done well on heavy, and the last and probably more importantly 2nd last start, and also how they finished (how many lengths back/forward they ended up)..

Every race, there always seems to be ones which you obviously would never pick, then you find the ones which have a chance and then the ones which you think will win.
I think picking a mixture of ones that you think will win and ones which you think have a chance is the way which im going to keep picking mine from now on - nothing p***s you off more, than landing a trifecta and they're all paying $2-$3 - I think its better to not land one of them and get some value in your bets instead... Same with each ways - Id rather look at the odds first then pick the best looking horse at about the 10:1, even 15:1 mark - at least I know if I land it im going to get paid..


What criteria are you using to choose your selections?What criteria do you use?

Mine in order are:

1. Track conditions (I think the difference between slow-heavy is the biggest as opposed to fast-dead-slow. I hope MR and SR will be racing on heavy again this weekend!)
2. Form (Last and 2nd last race, even info on the latest trials if its resuming)
3. How much it won by previously and whether or not its run the distance recently.
4. Barrier which its starting from (I only usually take good notice of this if its a 1200m or less race)
5. The weight its carrying.
6. Jockey and stable which its coming from (Some Jockeys are good on some horses, some are crap.) No-one can resist a resuming horse from Waterhouses' stable - they're definately giving the horses some good oats there! lol
7. Comments about the horse in general (form, last start etc etc)

[MarcusSR20]

I definitely don't feel as coaaadent (why dosent it let me write c o n f i d e n t?) about this weekend, as I did last weekend, SR and MR will be racing on dead and slow tomorrow, with some of the races containing a lot of roughies with no public trials.

Anybody got any tips they'd like to share?

I'm gonna put this on and hope to land just 1 lol:

Caulfield (MR)

R1: 3,6,9
R2: 2,5,6,9 and 3,5,12,15 (Rough field)
R3: 1,3,7
R4: 3,4,7,9
R5: 1,2,6,11
R6: 2,3,6,8 - Each way on number 8..
R7: 9,12,13,14 - Each way on number 1 if R6 lands..
R8: 1,3,9,11 - Each way on number 9 if I'm still alive..=)

Rosehill (SR)

R1: 1,2,3
R2: 1,3,4,8 - Value in this one, I think the threat will be number 11
R3: 1,2,6,10
R4: 1,3,8,10 - Hopefully value in this one too..
R5: 6,7,8,12
R6: 1,4,8,11
R7: 4,5,9,10
R8: 1,3,10,12

Tips anyone?

Cheers,

Marcus

[crash]

There are a lot of tips on the other page of the forum which is a better place to put yours or look for tips as very few tip seekers or givers visit this page.

This is the punting system and betting theory page. Selection on this page are usually following a posted system with rules. Try, 'selections for 2 days' [the most popular daily tipping thread on the other forum page, or post your own thread of tips there maybe.

Good luck today!

[MarcusSR20]

Thanks for the heads up..