System Test

[Benny]

Here's the rules to a system that I came up with


Rule 1 Last Start Winner
Rule 2 Must have won at the track and distance
Rule 3 Last start no more than 21 days
Rule 4 30%+ strike rate
Rule 5 Barrier 1 to 7
Rule 6 Saturday Metro only

This system won't throw up many selections.

[Pauls123]

Hey there Benny,

A lot of nice people on here have done me a favour, so I thought I might return one, having just recently purchased the data base from this site. It is very impressive I must say. I am still playing with it at this stage, have a few ideas though.

For your analysis over 9 and a 1/2 years.

Selections: 2178
Winners: 541
Strike Rate: 24.84%
LOT: -18.79%

My way of thinking here, is that this is giving you around 4/5 bets per saturday. That's not bad. But of course you need to turn that loss into a profit. I've been trying to come up with a strike rate well into the 20's,.....and a reasonable sort of POT also. It's not that easy really, but others on here seem to be doing it.

Good luck,
Paul

[Stix]

Here's the rules to a system that I came up with


Rule 1 Last Start Winner
Rule 2 Must have won at the track and/or distance
Rule 3 Last start no more than 21 days
Rule 4 30%+ strike rate
Rule 5 Barrier 1 to 7
Rule 6 Saturday Metro only

This system won't throw up many selections.What about:
Rule 7 3 yo's only
Rule 8 Decreasing in race distance

...........hmmm......

[Stix]

Here's the rules to a system that I came up with


Rule 1 Last Start Winner
Rule 2 Must have won at the track and distance
Rule 3 Last start no more than 21 days
Rule 4 30%+ strike rate
Rule 5 Barrier 1 to 7
Rule 6 Saturday Metro only

This system won't throw up many selections.Also..... if we slightly modify 3 rules delete 2 and add 3 new rules (2 of which are below :D) we can get

Win S/R 37%
Plc S/R 62%
Av. Win Div $5.15
Av. Plc Div $1.93
Win POT 90.7%
Plc POT 20.1%

[thorns]

And then we can bundle that up, come up with a catchy name, and sell it to mugs, claim results that didnt actually happen, and make a fortune. That way when we produce the next one and market that, we aren't actually lying when we said, the last system made US a fortune! :P

[Benny]

Thanks guys for the advice. I thought about laying the selections.

[darkydog2002]

Thorns.
With a catchy bit of Headline advertising like

"90 % on Turnover during official test period"
( 1 bet)
Cheers.
darky.

[Stix]

Thorns.
With a catchy bit of Headline advertising like

"90 % on Turnover during official test period"
( 1 bet)
Cheers.
darky.
A Personal note from our Managing Director "Our system Stix-it to 'em"

90% POT.....don't delay buy today....



Then..... "we've had one winning week in a row"....


:p

[crash]

It's amazing how much money a back-fitted system can make. Put me down for an order of 90% POT!

[Deborah09]

Then..... "we've had one winning week in a row"....

How about

We give you yesterdays winning numbers today..

[Benny]

What are the new rules and which ones were deleted.

[Stix]

What are the new rules and which ones were deleted.We'll tell you in a nice glossy broucher (complete with previous results) but only once you provide your bank details for direct debit of $990 per 6 months on the 24 month platinum service.....and not before :D

...and you get a free set of six staking plans if you order today :)

email g.ullible@suk.ed.in

[Stix]

It's amazing how much money a back-fitted system can make. Put me down for an order of 90% POT!Have you got that forwarded fitting one sorted yet Crash? :D

[Benny]

I think you guys are making fun at me and my sytems. Just stop with the jokes about selling this system. It's not my intenion to sell the system but to make some money as an extra income.

[Stix]

I think you guys are making fun at me and my sytems. Just stop with the jokes about selling this system. It's not my intenion to sell the system but to make some money as an extra income.
Us too... if we sell say 100 subs a months, gladly slip you say 25%... only fair as your thread dude!

[Bhagwan]

We are not making fun of you personally Benny.
Its just the lads are having a go at a well known publication that says these lines with their plans showing massive returns, with a different plan every month.
All based on back tested results which don't seem to repeat themselves once we start using real money them.

Those figures of yours are excellent , but what we have all found on this site, including chaps like Stix who have massive data banks .
Many systems have been created that make excellent profits from back tested past results over several years.

We all do this because that's really the only thing available, I mean, no one has access to data from the future have they?

What we have all found, nearly all of then are lucky to break even once the real money goes on them.
It sounds weird but its true .
That's what makes system creation so frustrating.
We ask ourselves , why did the figures change so much, it has never done that before.

What I would suggest, is to put real money on the refined plan by all means , but its a strong idea to bet in a ratio of 1 / 200 bank, adjusted up & down daily.
I feel one will find the figures change usually within a month of what it has done historically.

You may have come across a plan that repeats itself consistently & I hope it does, but past history on the hundreds we have seen, seem to lean towards breaking even or a slight loss.

Better profits should be had if you bet to price using Betfair.
e.g. say $10 per race using 400.00 bank.

Price.
5.00 / 10.00 = O/L 2.00
2.20 / 10.00 = O/L 4.54
23.00 / 10.00 = O/L .43

Your SR may be fine but it will be the low TAB prices in the end that may kill
the plan long term.

Also try & prepare yourself for 20+ outs in a row , even though it has never done it before, because it usually will happen , its only a matter of time.

I'm sorry to sound like a downer & I hope I am totally wrong.
I only say this so as you can gear your bank & emotions accordingly.

Cheers my friend.

[crash]

Have you got that forwarded fitting one sorted yet Crash? :D

Totally sorted Stix. It's called 'The Super Handicapper'!

[Stix]

Totally sorted Stix. It's called 'The Super Handicapper'!Nice.... what's the url for the paypal payment? :D

Benny

I'm not making fun of you, sorry if you feel that is the case. As Bhagy siad, just taking the proverbial from a system seller.

I just like the little challenge of turning a losing system into a winning one....yes by back fitting the be-jeezers out of it and using all sorts of rules and variants.... hey, I don't do crosswords or sudko..... this is my version :D

[Stix]

What are the new rules and which ones were deleted.Benny

I will create a thread here on the systems forum and list the qualifiers.... I don't expect too much action at all, but we'll see how we go http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/biggrin.gif

If it goes OK, we'll list the rules.

The stats for 1 July 2009 to 31 march 2009 are:

Selections 3
Wins 1 (33.3%)
Places 3 (100%)
Win Return 5.2
Plc Return 7.5
Win Profit 2.2 (73.3%)
Plc Profit 4.5 (150.0%)
Av Win Div 5.2
Av Plc Div 2.5

Selections:
31/1/09 Flemington R5-8 Fair Trade Won $5.2 $1.9
21/2/09 Ascot R3-7 Miss Timed 2nd $0.0 $1.8
14/3/09 Ascot R1-4 Shadesoftime 2nd $0.0 $3.8

[Stix]

The stats for 1 July 2009 to 31 march 2009 are:

Selections 3
Wins 1 (33.3%)
Places 2 (66.6%)
Win Return 1.7
Plc Return 3.2
Win Profit -1.3 (-43.3%)
Plc Profit 0.2 (6.7%)
Av Win Div 1.7
Av Plc Div 1.6

Selections:
25/4/09 Ascot R2-1 Revolition Won $1.7 $1.4
16/5/09 Canterbury R5-2 Geared Up 3rd $0.0 $1.8
06/6/09 Belmont R7-5 False Bravado UNP $0.0 $0.0



The stats for 1 January 2009 to 30 June 2009 are:

Selections 6
Wins 2 (33.3%)
Places 5 (83.3%)
Win Return 6.9
Plc Return 10.7
Win Profit 0.9 (15.0%)
Plc Profit 4.7 (78.3%)
Av Win Div 3.45
Av Plc Div 2.14

[darkydog2002]

Strewth. Is that you Bazza?
Cheers.
darky

[crash]

The stats for 1 July 2009 to 31 march 2009 are:

Selections 3
Wins 1 (33.3%)
Places 2 (66.6%)
Win Return 1.7
Plc Return 3.2
Win Profit -1.3 (-43.3%)
Plc Profit 0.2 (6.7%)
Av Win Div 1.7
Av Plc Div 1.6

Selections:
25/4/09 Ascot R2-1 Revolition Won $1.7 $1.4
16/5/09 Canterbury R5-2 Geared Up 3rd $0.0 $1.8
06/6/09 Belmont R7-5 False Bravado UNP $0.0 $0.0



The stats for 1 January 2009 to 30 June 2009 are:

Selections 6
Wins 2 (33.3%)
Places 5 (83.3%)
Win Return 6.9
Plc Return 10.7
Win Profit 0.9 (15.0%)
Plc Profit 4.7 (78.3%)
Av Win Div 3.45
Av Plc Div 2.14

So we put our money in now Stix ...and lose it [as these back-fitted system do with monotonous regularity].

The only thing going for these huge and expensive stats. data programs is that the person selling them is making a profit [if they could make a profit out of the stats. their selling, they wouldn't be reduced to selling them in the first place. Punting 101 I think as their not selling them out of the goodness of their hearts because they have hit on making big profits from past stats.]!

[crash]

Stats.sellers: Bleeding hearts who desperately want to share their profits around!

[Stix]

So we put our money in now Stix ...and lose it [as these back-fitted system do with monotonous regularity].

The only thing going for these huge and expensive stats. data programs is that the person selling them is making a profit [if they could make a profit out of the stats. their selling, they wouldn't be reduced to selling them in the first place. Punting 101 I think as their not selling them out of the goodness of their hearts because they have hit on making big profits from past stats.]!1. So we put our money in now Stix ...and lose it [as these back-fitted system do with monotonous regularity].
No idea Crash. Again you've taken your obvious dislike for databases, stats and backfitted system and posted a negative attitude to what was posted as a bit of fun. At no time did I say put money on them, I said I'd run a thread for a bit of fun and even stated I back fit the be-jeezers out of stats to "make up" a system.......like I said I don;\'t do crosswords or Suduko....it's a hobby champ.

I don't preach oneway or the other or dennonuce others methods/processes or activitie as reguarly and as actively as you.

2. The only thing going for these huge and expensive stats. data programs is that the person selling them is making a profit [if they could make a profit out of the stats. their selling, they wouldn't be reduced to selling them in the first place. Punting 101 I think as their not selling them out of the goodness of their hearts because they have hit on making big profits from past stats.]!
Your opinion.

I don't sell or work for anyone who sells software or databases. I post some stats for entertainment purposes. if you don't like it, ignore it.

It's posted without prejudice, which I can't say the same thing about your offerings.

Take it for what it's worth.....and in your opinion not much ! So take it easy and not worry about it...

[Stix]

Stats.sellers: Bleeding hearts who desperately want to share their profits around!You need to move on Crash.

[crash]

My posts were also just a bit of fun too Stix. If I really wanted to put something down I wouldn't be so blatantly obvious! Please stop being the judge and jury around here Stix: Spell corrector, Sincere/not sincere, funny/not funny etc. and at no time did I mention you or anyone else as a stats. seller [If you are, it's news to me].

'Move on" ??? Who, me or you?

Just stick to your own points about racing and stop playing the man Stix [mainly me I've noticed]. The thread here is about 'systems', not 'Crash', so everyone is entitled to an opinion on the subject without it having to fit or pass your approval [and it's not even your thread either].

I don't need your running commentary about my posts nor me as a person. Your not a moderator OK?

[Stix]

No problem, Crash. Perhaps taken the wrong way[?]

Not playing the man...like you said I wouldn't be so obvious.....but trying to highlight that your negativity/cynicism about stats/databases/systems is well documented…and you never miss a chance to jump on it


I’m not trying to be "judge and jury around here "......what are you on about? You are being rather mischievous with your wording.....


All the best....

[Stix]

System Selections:
nil

Close but no cigar:
Caulfield R5-1 Swift Bay - >15 days
Rosehill R3-2 Vintedge - Not won at track.

Good Luck...

[crash]

Not playing the man...but trying to highlight that your negativity/cynicism about stats/databases/systems is well documented…

Documented by who, you? Not playing judge and jury, playing the man, or self appointed moderator ?

Give me a break mate.

[crash]

I'd also like to point out that the only stats. seller I know on this forum is Chrome Prince, and in another thread where someone was asking about purchasing a stats. data base, I clearly stated that I thought Chrome had the best one around [if I wanted one that is the one I'd buy]. So any post of mine here about Stats. sellers was very tongue in cheek. Stats. certainly have their positive uses, but they might not automatically turn you into a winning punter [in my humble opinion if that is OK?].

[Stix]

Documented by who, you? Not playing judge and jury, playing the man, or self appointed moderator ?

Give me a break mate.Your mind works in very weird ways Crash...... very selective. You are the one that has rasied these terms/issues... not I, management nor anyone else for that matter.

Here I was thinking the KGB was no more and that Barry Hall had retired....maybe not!? :o

[crash]

Post deleted. Flaming.
Moderator 1.

[Stix]

System Selections:
nil

Close but no cigar:
Caulfield R5-1 Swift Bay - >15 days
Rosehill R3-2 Vintedge - Not won at track.

Good Luck...*** Just give this a bump ***

Ahhh, systems.... kicks out (excludes) an $8 winner (SR3R3)....LOL!

[crash]

Post deleted. Flaming. Moderator 1.

[crash]

When the moderator hits this thread: 2 Days? Geez, I might get a week. I'll cop it sweet.

===============================

Have a week off to read the posting guidelines and try to think of a way or two to disagree with a poster rather than attack them. Moderator 1.

[Benny]

Post deleted. Off topic. There's a red triangle TOU button above to press if you object to someone's posts. Moderator.

[crash]

Post deleted. Flaming. Moderator.

[Chrome Prince]

Some things just don't change, no matter what deterents are imposed.

The forum is meant to be a place for healthy banter and exchange of ideas. This constant playing of the man rather than the ball, detracts from an otherwise pleasant and helpful environment.

[lomaca]

Post deleted. Off topic. There's a red triangle TOU button above to press if you object to someone's posts. Moderator.
<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

[crash]

I'd also like to point out that the only stats. seller I know on this forum is Chrome Prince, and in another thread where someone was asking about purchasing a stats. data base, I clearly stated that I thought Chrome had the best one around [if I wanted one that is the one I'd buy]. So any post of mine here about Stats. sellers was very tongue in cheek. Stats. certainly have their positive uses, but they might not automatically turn you into a winning punter [in my humble opinion if that is OK?].


Anything else to say Chrome?

[Napalm]

Here's the rules to a system that I came up with


Rule 1 Last Start Winner
Rule 2 Must have won at the track and distance
Rule 3 Last start no more than 21 days
Rule 4 30%+ strike rate
Rule 5 Barrier 1 to 7
Rule 6 Saturday Metro only

This system won't throw up many selections.

Hi Benny,

I have backed plenty of winners looking at last start winners and track/distance specialists. Don't have a system as such but always look at last start winners that have a good strike rate at track/distance.

Keep at it:)

Napalm