Eagle Farm

[Benny]

Here's a seris of trifecta bets for Eagle Farm race 1. They are arrange to ensure a collect.

Race 1

1,2,3,4,5,6,7
1,2,3,4,5,8,9
1,2,3,6,7,8,9
1,4,5,6,7,8,9
2,3,4,5,6,7,8
2,3,4,5,6,7,9

[Makybe Diva]

You might collect but you have no chance of making a profit.

[moeee]

Yeah

You done something similar with a Greyhound Race the other day and it cost $140 to get back a return of $19 I think it was.

How much is the Total Outlay on this Race Benny?

[Benny]

I use flexi betting on the nsw tab for $20 each combo. I only need a decent div to make worth while.

As for the greyhonds that is the only time due to the skinny div.

[Benny]

Here's a seris of trifecta bets for Eagle Farm race 1. They are arrange to ensure a collect.

Race 1

1,2,3,4,5,6,7
1,2,3,4,5,8,9
1,2,3,6,7,8,9
1,4,5,6,7,8,9
2,3,4,5,6,7,8
2,3,4,5,6,7,9

2 Trirfectas
1 First four

[michaelg]

Benny, I believe this is what the Yanks call "wheeling" and the Poms "permutations" which is used mainly for games of chance like Lotto. This type of betting covers all possibilities and can snare the top prize several times.

By my calcs, the trifecta outlay was $1,260 for a return of $26.40. If it been a large one, then it could have been quite profitable.

[moeee]

By my calcs, the trifecta outlay was $1,260 for a return of $26.40. If it been a large one, then it could have been quite profitable.

IF?

You know what they say about IF.
IF your Auntie had balls, she'ld be your Uncle.

The truth is it was a ridiculous bet.
And just goes to show why Trifecta betting for them what go by Form Study can be profitable.

[Bhagwan]

Smarter guys than us with elaborate computer programs have some tails of woe to tell, when it comes to Trifectas.

I was reading somewhere that fields of 9 exactly, offer the best risk to value.

One chap comes to mind is the late great Don Scott.
Brilliant at value betting.

He turned his attentions to Trifectas using computer programs & staggering the bets to show a profit over various combinations.
He's permutations showed a profit could be gleamed based on past results.

Well, lets say he had a very bad run.
He dropped a bundle.

One has to try & keep in mind that Trifecta punters often have runs of 20+ outs , so be prepared.

If one works the average div to outlay, it works out the same as if one were to target 2/1 shots for a win only & a greater chance of more successes.

I know it sounds confronting , I'm sorry about that , but when one starts crunching the numbers , this is what is often revealed.

If one can hit trifectas outlaying no more than 60-80 units , there can be a profit there , but getting the profitable strike rate before the bank runs out , seems to be a challenge for most of us.
This is what Done found out also he dropped a reported $2mil

One maybe be good at striking them , but its the final div that ends up killing the long term prospects in my opinion.
Hit too many low payers & its curtains.

It is said that its a strong idea to try & target races where the top 2 Favs look weak & go from there.

Like win betting, Laying, Quinellas,Place Betting, they all take a bit of research to get the better results.
I wish it was not true, but one tends to have a stronger chance most times if they do.

It truly is about targeting value runners.

Have a look at most races where the Fav does not figure in the finish.
They can pay anything.
Find the False Fav & I feel one would be half way there.
Favs statistically get placed 64% of the time, which often makes the trifecta low value.

I recon if one could box 5 in a 9 horse event cost 60 units or having an anchor bet to run 1st , 2nd,3rd + 5 others = 60 units & you are OK at targeting the value runners & know which field to leave alone, one could do OK out of it.
But it comes back to cherry picking the right races again.
& it working out grater than 2/1
That's the hard bit.
But that's not to say it cant be done.

Don Scott came to his realisation that win betting multiple horses was the way to go if they came up to the price you have in mind for them.
He would bet between 2-4 horses using some as savers.

The is a 4 horse staking plan on one of the other threads, one may wish to have a go at, if one is good a hitting winners within 4 horses a race.
Works best if the Fav can be deleted.

Cheers & good luck my friend.

[Benny]

I used a simialer seris of 10 bets on warrnambool race 6 and got the tri for 6% of the div and it paid $3300 on unitab. The cost was $42 for the 10 tickets.

[moeee]

Nice work Benny.

The way things were going till now, I'ld imagine it musta bin your last $42.
The only way is up now Benny :)

Go for it.

[Benny]

Another win for the system This time Randwick race 3. same outlay and the tri paid $1070.

[moeee]

They always win when you don't post, don't they Benny?

But when you post before the Race, you look a fool.

Forum Curse they call it.
Happens to me all the time.

Not as Bad as it happens to you, but happens just the same.

[partypooper]

Bhags, mmmmm, yes I see where you are comming from, kinda look for the fav where,

(1) hasn't run within 21 days
(2) more than 9 runners
(3) last run WASN'T metro
(4) hasn't got a win in exposed form
(5) place % is LESS than 50%
(6) Rating is LESS than 97
(7) Carrying MORE than 60Kg's
(8) Ridden by a 3kg's apprentice (or more)
(9) Running in a race of 2000m or more
(10) If in a race of 1200 metres or less and is NOT first up!
(11) was NOT within 3.5 lenghts from the winner last start.
(12) IS NOT racing within 3.5 kg's of set weight last start (ignoring all claims)

or maybe say, if it qualifies in say 6 of the above then do the tri???

[Benny]

I'm looking at applying this method to sports betting with only 2 teams. What do you guys thinks.

Game 1
Game 2
Game 3
Game 4
Game 5

Thats 10 selections by my calculations.

[Bhagwan]

Another idea is to Target races where the whole field has 90+ pts in UniTAB ratings.
This tells us that the field strength is high & anything can win.

Try & see if there is a slight weakness in the Fav.

If there is , its weakness will only be compounded due to the field strength applying its pressure on the Fav.

Now target that race with your filters.

Quite often the Fav gets beaten in these sort of races & the Trifecta can pay anything.

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, I've periodically looked at this method over the past couple of years. The more successful races in which the fave is beaten and/or the exotics are substantial are with fields of 11 or more.

I once decided to explore a stakings plan but because these races do not happen very often I never proceeded.

[michaelg]

There are two races today of 11-plus starters and all have 90-plus Unitab points.

Kilmore R8 and R9.

We'll see how they go.

[Bhagwan]

Today Tues 11/8/09
There were 2 races where the whole field had 90+ pts.
Both Favs fell over.

Mon 10/8/09
5 from 6 Favs fell over.

[michaelg]

A few more today where the field has 90-plus Unitab points.

Under 11 starters
Ballarat R4 - 7 starters. Winner paid $1.80, Quinella $15, $51.
Wyong R9 - 9 starters.

11-plus staters.
Ballarat R5 - 12 starters. Winner paid $18, Quinella $140, Trifecta $2,500.
Northam R8 - 14 starters.
Townsville R7 - 12 starters.