Interesting statistics....!

[Pauls123]

Hi All,

Recently I purchased the data base from this site, and have spent quite some time doing various searches on it. There is one aspect of it that intrigues me somewhat, so I guess this post is aimed at other users of it. I realise that no one talks about their findings etc, but this wont be giving away that much.

No matter what searches you do, just about all of them have a much better result if you put in....days since last race less than 8. (compared to any other number of days).

The funny thing is though, if you run a search on the total number of winners over the duration of this data base, that won, that had qualified under the days break of less than 8; you get 3,467 winners. Then if you say run a search on horses who won who had 8 to 14 days break from their previous start you get 14,797. 15 to 21 days you get 8,392 and more than 21 days you get 9,046.

What I am getting at here is the fact that the best results come from the smallest quantity of this days since parameter.

Very interesting indeed....!

I am sure someone will have some reasons for this.

At this point following my lengthy analysis' of searches performed on my data base (which I am totally enjoying, I must say), I have come up with a number of systems. Some seem to interlock into other systems, but I did decide to commence my bets from such on last saturday. I had 8 bets for 4 winners and a POT of around 26%, so here's hoping this continues.

Apart from all this I have always maintained that horses are creatures of habit. I happened to back Teasing on saturday as I entered it into my bb following its win 2 starts prior, very good finishing sectionals. It then run in the Ramournie and drew wide, got back, run home well to be beaten just over a length. So I followed up on it. Last preparation this horse won 3rd and 5th up,.....this preparation, exactly the same thing. I am not saying this happens all the time, but I see it soo often.

Paul

[Shaun]

I will agree here, i have run many tests on the DB and found the one thing that improves selections is runners less than 8 days.

The thing i never understood about the days since last run is that if it is such a key factor in racing why would trainers not give horses some hard training 7 days before they are due to race that would simulate a race.

[Mancunian]

Instant mini system ?

Last start winner
Last start less than 8 days

3 qualifiers for Wed 5 Aug
R'hill - r5 #4
Sand - r7 #5
Belm - r6 #5

cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Hint: look for horses who have backed up and been successful before.
Geldings in general back up better.

And...forget 2yo's and 3yo's.

[Pauls123]

Hi CP,

Your saying a winner who backs up within 7 days, and has did that before and won..?

Your data base doesnt pick up on this though, does it..?

Paul

[Chrome Prince]

You can run a test and then use a blackbook service to note the runners.

[Pauls123]

Very interesting CP, I never thought of using your data base in that respect. You could say work on the dates 1st July 2008 to end of March 2009 (where your data base is currently up to) and search for horses that won with a weeks back up from a last start win. And of course watch for them when they come back this spring.

I just run a quick search for a looksee, and a couple of horses that jumped up were Something Anything, and All Silent, very good horses...!

Interesting,

Paul

[crash]

Hi All,


The funny thing is though, if you run a search on the total number of winners over the duration of this data base, that won, that had qualified under the days break of less than 8; you get 3,467 winners. Then if you say run a search on horses who won who had 8 to 14 days break from their previous start you get 14,797. 15 to 21 days you get 8,392 and more than 21 days you get 9,046.

Paul

What where the number of starters in each of the above groups or what was the winning % of each group? Knowing that would make the number of winners from each group more meaningful and comparable. Thanks.

[Mancunian]

For what its worth
Todays runners that had their last start within 8 days :
A. Last start winners result : 0 wins out of 3
B. Fin. within 5 lgths of winner last start - 12 selections for 5 wins and return of $23.60 (Unitab)
C. Fin. worse than 5 lgths behind winner last start - 9 selections for 1 winner which paid $22.80 (Unitab)

[schmucta80]

What would it do to the stats if you took out all those that were either 2nd up or third up in their campaigns? So the horse must be racing again within 8 days of its last start but must be having atleast its 3rd or 4th run in this time

[Mancunian]

What would it do to the stats if you took out all those that were either 2nd up or third up in their campaigns? So the horse must be racing again within 8 days of its last start but must be having atleast its 3rd or 4th run in this time

Good thought schmucta - I haven't got any real stats, but on that small sample from todays races it would have only eliminated 1 unplaced horse.

cheers

[Pauls123]

Hi Mancunian,..what rules are you using for B,...surely there must be more than that single rule.?

And Schmucta, interesting point there, I'll have a look at it tomorrow. Been sitting here going through coffs harbour form for tomorrow's Cup meeting, I'm heading up there. It's a 40k run from here. It's a good meeting up there, will be packed, as always.

Paul

[Mancunian]

G'day Paul,
1st rule is "must have had its last start less than 8 days ago"
then I was just trying to see if there was a simple filter to find if some were better than others - and now shmucta has introduced another filter, and of course Chrome's suggestion is fine if you are equipped accordingly.
But us peasants are always looking and hoping for something simple.
Hope you back a winner or two tomorrow.
cheers....Mancunian

[schmucta80]

I have been interested in the last start winners from the previous 8 days for a little while but never had a database to use to see how it would go

Horses that are 2nd up generally need minimum 2 weeks and preferrably 3 weeks after a first run back in, so would like to see how that affects the stats, and also i have been thinking about distances as well, but havent been able to pinpoint an optimum distance range. You would have to think a 1000m - 1600m race would be easier to recover from in 8 days than say a 2000m - 2400m race, but with horses you never know and thats why the stats could tell us something.

Ihave more thoughts if interested

[schmucta80]

And of course they don't even have to be last start winners. Some horses improve with a run so close to their last outing

[Shaun]

My data base is not uptodate is about 2 years old but still should have good info so i will start with basic results
<8 Days Break
Sel 28338
Wins 3048
SR 10.76%
Return 24752.8
P.O.T -12.65%

The average divi for these winner was $8.12 with the min $1.10 and max $181.50 and as we all know money is a great indication of chance so lets bring in a min price we will start with the ave

<8 Days Break
<$8
Sel 9355
Wins 2156
SR 23.05%
Return 9073.19
P.O.T -3.01%

This improved things a bit so where to from here, lets have a look at close up runners lets say with in 3 lngths.

<8 Days Break
<$8
<3
Sel 6775
Wins 1624
SR 23.97%
Return 6462.10
P.O.T -4.62%

This reduced everything overall but increased our loss, lets try 2 lengths.

<8 Days Break
<$8
<2
Sel 5486
Wins 1374
SR 25.05%
Return 5297.60
P.O.T -3.43%

Not a big change lets go lower.

<8 Days Break
<$8
<1
Sel 3780
Wins 1008
SR 26.67%
Return 3744
P.O.T -0.95%

Lets say ran 1st or 2nd

<8 Days Break
<$8
1...2
Sel 4053
Wins 1072
SR 26.45%
Return 3997.90
P.O.T -1.36%

Not a great deaL has changed maybe last start winners.

<8 Days Break
<$8
1
Sel 2074
Wins 597
SR 28.78%
Return 2145
P.O.T 3.43%

Ok here we have a profit over 7 years of data maybe small but yet a profit, see the amount of selections has reduced by over half but the winners have also reduced, so we see that last start winners can make a profit with the above rules, lets see if we can improve this.


we will reduce the price to less that $6
<8 Days Break
<$6
1
Sel 1648
Wins 536
SR 32.52%
Return 1730.20
P.O.T 4.93%

An by going to $5 max

<8 Days Break
<$5
1
Sel 1325
Wins 473
SR 35.70%
Return 1392
P.O.T 5.07%

How about $4

<8 Days Break
<$4
1
Sel 986
Wins 396
SR 40.16%
Return 1054.50
P.O.T 6.95%

This tells me price has a big difference on returns as you can see but with just over 100 selections a year i am sure many punters would become bored, lets increase the days to 14

<15 Days Break
<$4
1
Sel 6226
Wins 2167
SR 34.81%
Return 5642.70
P.O.T -9.37%

Good strike rate but that about it, i had a look at a few other days but less than 7 looked the best, i had a look at runners from a spell but it reduced the runners,winners and overall profit.

Here i added only 4yo and up

<8 Days Break
<$4
1
4yo+
Sel 643
Wins 259
SR 40.28%
Return 704.80
P.O.T 9.61%

Interesting to note this also made a profit for the place
<8 Days Break
<$4
1
4yo+
Sel 643
Wins 443
SR 68.90%
Return 646.50
P.O.T 0.54%

Lets just have 3yo-7yo

<8 Days Break
<$4
1
3...7
Sel 860
Wins 352
SR 40.93%
Return 939.20
P.O.T 9.21%

All these figures are based on TAB prices

P.S.
I thought i would make this change to the above and change from last start winners to those less than 1 length

<8 Days Break
<$4
<1
3...6
Sel 1475
Wins 588
SR 39.86%
Return 1611.30
P.O.T 9.24%

One thing this shows is age does effect runners

[schmucta80]

lots of great work there Shaun, lots of different strategies.

Can you differentiate between distances?

Maybe win percentages as well? I don't know much about databases and how far the limitations are.

[Shaun]

Sure give me an idea of what you want

[schmucta80]

okay, thanks heaps, I won't go into the hundreds of ideas I have but this should make a start

Last start 8 days or less
win percentage 20+
distances 1800m or less

also could u get comparative results for distances 1800 or more?

maybe add a filter of within 3 lengths last start, like I said I aint too sure how the databases work, but your stats and findings provide excellent reading

[Shaun]

<8
>20%
<1800
Sel 4103
Wins 759
SR 18.50%
Return 4083.20
P.O.T -0.48%

I tried with more than 1800 but a bigger loss and even with a price of less than $5 for the obove stats was still a loss
If we do this to what you have above
<8
>20%
<1
<1800
Sel 2419
Wins 517
SR 21.37%
Return 2477
P.O.T 2.40%

The best things to start off with IMHO are less than 8 days and less than a length from winner then you need to add a price filter then maybe an age filter

[schmucta80]

so that shows that last start within 8 days is better up to say 1800m?

the horse recovers better in that time frame then if over a longer journey. Interesting, i had thought that but never had the stats to back it up

[Shaun]

<8
<1 Lgth
<$4
>20%
<1800
3..6 yo
Sel 680
Wins 281
SR 41.32%
Return 749.20
P.O.T 10.18%

[schmucta80]

Thanks Shaun, hope i did not take up too much of your time, if i went through all my thoughts and filters you would be at it all day

[Shaun]

Yes i bet i would, as you can see from what i have listed the best filters to start with.


The problem with all this is the limited selection and the possible outs between winners i will show you some figures for 12 months based on the best system from above

[Shaun]

<8 Days Break
<$4
<1
3...6
Sel 1475
Wins 588
SR 39.86%
Return 1611.30
P.O.T 9.24%


-----Bets Wins Return
Jan07 13 5 12.1
Feb07 6 1 2.7
Mar07 18 7 20.90
Apr07 20 8 19.50
May07 13 7 20.30
Jun07 17 6 14.90
Jul07 19 5 16.30
Aug07 17 8 19
Sep07 14 6 14.90
Oct07 7 1 3.60
Nov07 15 4 10.60
Dec07 12 6 17.40
Total 171 64 172.20

[schmucta80]

is that all days or just metrop?

Does that include 2nd and 3rd up horses?

[Shaun]

Thats all days, maybe better just metro but it would reduce the amount of bets.

[schmucta80]

ok, one thing I have never been sold on is the price angle. There are lots of variants with this, do you take SP, or do you trust the totes at start time, if so which one, Pre-post, all those things. I have always thought that gettin a system to work without this angle, using other filters, might work better. Then you would also not limit yourself to what price the winners are that you could hit.

Tell me to quit when ever you want lol, I could be at this for aslong as anyone wants to discuss it. Its the most promising angle I have seen as a starting tool for ages

[Shaun]

Price is the true indication of chance, the database uses closing tab price not sure what TAB Chrome could answer that, yes you could target horses at higher prices and get winners even make a profit long term i am only looking at what i know has made a profit over time maybe not every year but has made a profit and the figures do not lie the shorter priced horses win more often and last start winners or those with in 1 length that raced in the last 7 days have a high strike rate at the expense of lots of bets.

If you want to back horses based on the price the bookies are best to follow as they are in the business of making money. money in the TAB pools is not always the right money to follow.

[schmucta80]

True True, but it is still only one persons opinion (PP) or even lots of peoples opinions (TAB) but if we can somehow get the results to show good profit levels without this filter, then the statistics will override those opinions, and we could be gettin some value if we are on a different opinion path due to what the other filters decide for us.

Can't argue with your findings though, I guess I just like the thought of a system that throws up a 20/1 shot every second week haha

[schmucta80]

How does your database go with working out things like distance the same as last start, or distance less than last start and distance more than last start.

Winners at today distance, or todays track, or todays track and distance.

Another thing I am interested in is horses that raced over a track and distance they had not won at before, but then racing within the next 8 days at a track and distance they had been successful at previously. SO it could be like a trainer gettin a run into his horse and then racing it a week or so later at a track and distance they know it competes well at.

[Shaun]

Those systems do exist but we need to change the direction, i used to have a system of looking for horses with good form that were down 5kg or more in weight and used to get regular 20/1+ winners and atleast a 50/1 winner once a month but with weight changes and class changes these days to races you can't realy find these horses.

There was a good thread on here about looking for 20/1 shots that i followed for awhile but after 100+ losing streak it was stretching the budget a bit

here is a small adjustment to the system i just posted.

<8 Days Break
<$3
<1 Length
3...6 yo
Sel 709
Wins 351
SR 49.51%
Return 796.80
P.O.T 12.38%

[Shaun]

Sure does all that, i think there is a trial version of the database, Chrome will be around later he is the guy that created it and can tell you more.

[crash]

Chrome created it ?

[Shaun]

As far as i know, thats who sells it.

[Pauls123]

Wow, I am impressed here, I get home from coffs harbour cup and all the answers to this thread have been done, well done boys,..!

And Schmucta, I will say one thing, if you can afford that data base, its worth every cent of the $405. All these questions you are thinking of, the answers are spat out in a few seconds.

Shaun, you have come up with some pretty good stuff there. I'm going to have a play with your figures and see what develops. The reason that prompted me to start this thread initially was the fact that whatever system you run, the <8 day factor comes way out on top. But the actual number of winners it has produced accounts for around 9% of the 38,000 winners over the 9 plus years of this data base. So this is of course the reason that systems such as outlined by you, dont have that many bets. Depends I guess on the person, is 2 bets a week enough to satisfy the betting adiction of us punters..?

Being a recent purchaser of this db, I've gone down an angle which I am not sure if most have or not. This saturday will only be my second saturday I have actually used my systems, so looking forward to see what happens then.

Paul

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, I devised it, programmed it, and propun markets it for me.

[Chrome Prince]

Paul,

It might interest you to know, that the pro punter Sean Bartholomew also uses the 7 day criteria in his punting.

http://www.racenettv.com.au/default.asp?f=Sean.wmv

The results are a lot better if you eliminate hurdles and steeples.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's some examples of the differences in sticking to flat races.

Last start winner within 7 days raw...

18.66% S/R
4.84% loss on turnover

But this also included a winner @ $47.90, so if that didn't occur again the loss is greater.

So we click Modify Search and in the Closing Price, we consider horses that are under $10.00 on the tote.

Requests -> Add New Request.
Click the Omit button on the toolbar and in the race class box type Hurdle.

And again...

Requests -> Add New Request.
Click the Omit button on the toolbar and in the race class box type Steeple.

Hit the green Search button.

26.51% S/R
2.50% POT.

We then get Top Fluctuation or go to Betfair and get the extra 5% to 15% after commission.

There are other filters that improve this, but they are part of the systems included, so I can't post those.

But for those with the database, this shows you how to omit something from your search.

I've endeavoured to keep the speed of the database optimum.

I compared it with another commercially available database.

RaceCensus to 28 seconds to search for all favourites and do all the calculations of strike rate and profit & loss.
The other took 3 hours!

Note: to be fair the other calculates ratings etc, but a simple favourites search would leave me pulling out my hair ;)

[Stix]

This DB have non-metro racing Chrome? Is this different to the RaceCensus DB?

[Chrome Prince]

The other one has the capability to have non-metro meets, but for the comparison, both databases had exactly the same meetings.

[schmucta80]

I have seen those 7 day stats before, but have never seen the stats when all 2nd and 3rd up horses are taken out of the equation. I would harness a guess and say it would dramatically improve the POT.

Also distances staying the same or maybe a little longer, rather than coming back in distance, I would guess the same for this.

And maybe a 20 percent or more win strike rate might also weed out a few fluke runs from 7 days before.

[Shaun]

Thanks for the tip, one day you are going to have to write a good helpfile for your DB

[Shaun]

<8
LS 1
<$10
>20%
0...1000 dist var
Sel 1061
Wins 279
SR 26.30%
Return 975.10
P.O.T -8.10%

The thing to remember is if you add to many filters you are going to filter out all selections, these are metro stats as said before but i think it a good indication
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[Shaun]

Days <8
Price <$4
Lengths <1
Age 3...6
Sel 1475
Wins 588
SR 39.86%
Return 1611.30
P.O.T 9.24%


Chrome did you see these, the thing i liked was it had a system viability of 35 what is the highest you have come up with for viability

[schmucta80]

<8
LS 1
<$10
>20%
0...1000 dist var
Sel 1061
Wins 279
SR 26.30%
Return 975.10
P.O.T -8.10%

The thing to remember is if you add to many filters you are going to filter out all selections, these are metro stats as said before but i think it a good indication
<!-- / message -->
Thanks for the stats Shaun, what is the 0...1000 dist var filter?

[Shaun]

It means distance change from last start 0 to 1000m

[schmucta80]

Gee you really can do a heap with it can't you. Thanks once again Shaun and others who have run the filters through

[Chrome Prince]

Actually the POT of that has dropped slightly recently, but still in profit.

Try eliminating fillies and mares...

40.43% S/R
12.00% Win POT
0.65% Place POT

[Vortech]

Shaun - Was this tested only on Metro tracks?

Those systems do exist but we need to change the direction, i used to have a system of looking for horses with good form that were down 5kg or more in weight and used to get regular 20/1+ winners and atleast a 50/1 winner once a month but with weight changes and class changes these days to races you can't realy find these horses.

There was a good thread on here about looking for 20/1 shots that i followed for awhile but after 100+ losing streak it was stretching the budget a bit

here is a small adjustment to the system i just posted.

<8 Days Break
<$3
<1 Length
3...6 yo
Sel 709
Wins 351
SR 49.51%
Return 796.80
P.O.T 12.38%