staking plan

[luv2bet]

I have been testing a few staking plans of late to try to increase profit. I thought posting on here would save me a lot of time and probably end up with a better result.
Lets say we come up with a selection process that has a 40% winning strike rate with an average divvi of $3. This would show a profit, what is the best way to increase the bottom line. The plans i have looked at are a bit scary during a run of outs.
Is level stakes the way to go?
How many outs in a row could you expect with that sort of s/r.
cheers

[thorns]

The longest run of outs I could get for it over 40000 random samples was 21. Mostly the run of outs was around 15-17. As you say the run of outs can get scary and the stakes can skyrocket pretty quickly. With a 40% Sr and $3 I would say just go level stakes, perhaps 2 percent of bank and go from there as your main betting. Perhaps on the side you could also run a progressice staking plan for a bit of excitement.

[luv2bet]

thanks thorns, i havent got anywhere near that amount of outs yet but im sure it will happen. what sort of a s/r would you need to run something like the fibonacci (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34). I do agree though that level stakes is a lot easier on the ticker, and probably not much different on the overall results.
cheers

[Stix]

I use a very basic 1,2,3,4,4,4,4,4.... plan on the selections similar to michaelg's Betting on the Favs thread....

Max 4 units, helps me cap my outlay in a losing streak....maybe not the best method, but has worked on small set of selections so far.

It's running @ 60% for win and 78% for place

Level stakes it's 34.2 units up from 45 selections (79.5% POT)
Staking method it's 53.1 units up (123.5% POT)

longest run of outs is 4 (once), 2 (three times)

I will run the 2% of bank and see how it would of gone.... Edit: 94.1 units 64.7% POT

Good Luck...

[thorns]

I think you could definitely have a play with a fibonacci on the side. Ultimately as has been proven on these forums before, even staking plans are effectively level stakes. As long as your method show a level stake profit, you can get away with a aggressive staking plan. In the end you will end up with an average sized bet, and as long as the SR and av divi are high, you should show a profit. Heres a few you could try, all rely on a $2.50 divi to break even, so any extra on the price is the "cream" on top

50,80,130,260,520

40,60,100,200,400,800

30,30,40,70,120,200,340

20,30,50,70,120,200,330,550

10,20,30,40,70,120,200,330,550

5,5,10,15,25,40,70,115,190,320

5,5,10,15,25,40,70,115,190,320,530

Obviously with those amounts you can divide them all to start with a much smaller bank. But you may want to run some of those over some past data and see how they go.

[Stix]

Thorns, is that a reply to me or luv2?

Thanks

[TWOBETS]

Someone has got to say it. This time it can be me to take the flack.

So many forumites have put forward the argument far more eloquently than I ever could......but.......understand......LONG TERM.........a staking plan ain't worth diddly squat. You either have an effective betting strategy or you don't.

If you do then bet to a percentage of your bank to cater for the dreaded run of outs. If you don't then look for a better strategy. End of story.

OK folks....fire away!!!

[luv2bet]

thanks guys for those responses, much appreciated..
I like the idea of capping a progressive plan somewhere before it gets out of control, makes sense in protecting the bank.
Stix, that s/r is massive, what is the average divvie on that s/r? if its over $3-4 you will have to change your name to 'messiah'...
I will test some of those plans with recent results and see what i come up with.
cheers..

[luv2bet]

Someone has got to say it. This time it can be me to take the flack.

So many forumites have put forward the argument far more eloquently than I ever could......but.......understand......LONG TERM.........a staking plan ain't worth diddly squat. You either have an effective betting strategy or you don't.

If you do then bet to a percentage of your bank to cater for the dreaded run of outs. If you don't then look for a better strategy. End of story.

OK folks....fire away!!!


Look, staking is something i have just looked at and hence why im asking questions. I know stix's results are only over a small period but the difference is huge. With a high s/r (like stix's) i cant see how level stakes could be the same or better long term..

[thorns]

Someone has got to say it. This time it can be me to take the flack.

So many forumites have put forward the argument far more eloquently than I ever could......but.......understand......LONG TERM.........a staking plan ain't worth diddly squat. You either have an effective betting strategy or you don't.

If you do then bet to a percentage of your bank to cater for the dreaded run of outs. If you don't then look for a better strategy. End of story.

OK folks....fire away!!!Completely agree with all that has been said by you. I merely mentioned the progressive plan as a bit of entertainment on the side. Level stakes is ideal for a long term game, but progressive can be a great way to make short term profits as a bit of entertainment on the side.

[thorns]

Thorns, is that a reply to me or luv2?

ThanksWas a reply to luv2.

Was a reply to luv2 :)

[Stix]

thanks guys for those responses, much appreciated..
I like the idea of capping a progressive plan somewhere before it gets out of control, makes sense in protecting the bank.
Stix, that s/r is massive, what is the average divvie on that s/r? if its over $3-4 you will have to change your name to 'messiah'...
I will test some of those plans with recent results and see what i come up with.
cheers..All stats are on the other thread mate..... I don't expect it to stay that high - raw selections are @ 47% (av div 2.7) , filtered are striking at 60% (av div $2.9)......long way for this to go, but I'm betting them and happy so far, not a lot of action but discipline is more important to me than activity.

No flack Twobets. Thorns, it's a bit of fun to see how the results would have been had you used certain staking plans/methods.

I don't mind the 2-4% of bank rule........worked well over these results.

If I get time, I'll try and run the selections over a month - using level stakes, simple progressive and percentage of bank.....see how we go!

[Stix]

Was a reply to luv2.

Was a reply to luv2 :)Right, OK.
Right, OK. :p

[partypooper]

OK this is the acid test! take a good sample of bets,
, say youre betting 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc etc (or whatever)add up what your TOTAL stakes were over that test run, then look at your points profit, eg say your total bets are 1000 points and you have 100 points profit, so you have 10% Profit on Turnover.

Now take the total stakes again i.e.1000, and divide by the number of selections, ............say there is 200 = 5, now work out what your returns would have been had you placed 5 points level stakes instead.

I'll bet my bottom dollar that the profit on turnover will be same i.e. 10% or close to it, of course we are talking about an extended run of bets.