Sticking to a system...when you're having a losing run

[Steve M]

Had close to two years of good results [and when I say good I mean 115% return].

Bit over a month into the new racing year and I'm batting 75%

Not overly happy but a couple of years back I'd be making all sorts of decisions...changing the system, selectively backing/not backing the picks, changing my stake.

Interesting challenge of sticking to the plan when it isn't working.

Questions of how long do stick with it might be relevant, hopefully I don't have to visit that one.

Hope to bounce the post if/when I can get it back in front !

[Shaun]

So you have a 75% pot and you are complaining?

[Steve M]

I wish ! A 75% return meaning a 25% loss.

Not 75% POT.

[goty0405]

It'sa good question. Without knowing all the information and doing lots of analysis here are some things I would consider:

1) Lock away most of the original profit and keep the system going on small bankroll. This will give you time to observe the trend and protect the bank if it is going pear shaped. If it comes back on track you can re-add your money.

2) Do a month by month statistical analysis. Get the averages and stats for each month. Then look at recent months and see how far (if it all) they are below the worst month. It might turn out you've just had a run of bad months but could expect more big months coming in.

3) Using the data from 2, if you notice a distinct point in time where a change happened do some research on the events at that time. Maybe conditions changed (eg qualifications for a race type got stricter, or handicapping was relaxed in XYZ races) or maybe it was something like weather.

Plenty more things like that you can do. The main thing is do the research and see if you can explain the difference. Even if you have to throw the system away at least get confident in your decision first. :)

[crash]

I once was in the same situation with a profitable system that lasted for about 2yrs. I kept betting it and eventually did my profit. Except for idle speculation, I have no real answers as to why systems can and do die and in hindsight it was silly of me to keep flogging a dead horse.

I'd stop betting the system until it shows clear signs of returning to profit [or not]. Keep the profit in your pocket mate.

[michaelg]

Hi, Steve M.

With a profit over two years one would expect it to be solid system. However, it might depend on the number of bets? The reason I ask is that a certain publication that periodically sells systems will list the bets which often comes to a few hundred over a period of a couple of years or thereabouts. Then when their system is sold to the public it heads downhill.

Also, their rules are generally "rigid". For example, "placed at last two starts", "won the highest average prizemoney in the race", "last start within 18 days" etc.

I don't know the rules to your system, but if they are 'rigid" then the Shifting Sands Syndrome (Bhagwan, thanks for this term) will most likely eventually happen, just as it does with games of chance such as roulette.

Maybe if you can cross-reference your selections with a "non rigid" source, such as its Starting Price (Maria did this very successfully with a cut off price of $11), Unitab, DFS ratings, neurals, etc.

As evidence, a few years ago I purchased one of the publication's systems which eventually failed (how surprising), but I used a "non rigid" rule by betting those selections that had 100 points on Unitab. This proved profitable with each-way betting (remembering that the system over the same period went downhill). As the system was only for Saturday racing there was not too much action using my extra rule, and eventually I could not be bothered phoning for the selections even though it was showing a good profit.

So, applying a "non rigid" rule or rules to a system that is comprised of "rigid" rules might be the key or increase the possibility of a long term profit.

[AngryPixie]

... it's what you do with the length.

It's a function of how many successful and unsuccessful bets you've had and at what price you've placed them, not the time period over which your bets have been placed :)

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showpost.php?p=162371&postcount=55

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showpost.php?p=162311&postcount=46

[thorns]

Cheers for those links AngryPixie. The first one makes my head hurt a little bit, but am going to have a go with it on some of my systems I am currently testing.

[Steve M]

Cheers guys...some interesting comments there and links which I'll look at.

After 2 years I feel reasonably confident of the methods I'm using [but gee I've been wrong many times before].

I'd probably have to look at the situation if I got down to 50% return - but happy to continue on until things got that bad.

I do have what I'd call a rigid system though it differs in that I don't look at a race and then apply the rules and voila have a selection. I'm looking for what you'd call 'form factors' - last Sat I had 5 bets, Wed had 1, this Sat I'll have 2.

The problem with part of my rigid rules [one being don't bet in a race where an unraced runner is engaged] meant it doesn't always work in your factor - had I disregarded this I would have had one more bet and winning selection on both Sat and Sat resulting in a small profit overall - still I feel that rule has proven itself overtime.

I think the value of a staking plan you're comfortable with can assist greatly - I'm betting X% of my bank. So as the bank goes down I'm reducing my bet. Now that might not suit everyone - and makes it harder to get back to a profit - but still it's something I feel comfortable with.

I think if anything it's learning you're not going to win large amounts every bet or even win every bet. It's about the longterm strategy. Hopefully it works in my favour.

[Steve M]

Thought I'd bounce this for what it's worth...

Last Wednesday week got back in the black and remain there a bit over a week later...102% overall - so that's only 2% profit - distince need for further improvement but it's in the black, I'm happy with that.

What did I change...nothing...stuck to the selection and staking method.

What did I learn...not sure! That's not true...I had confidence to stick with what had proven successful in the past.

As an aside...I've done the form for Saturday's races and have no selections [meaning no bets]...that's the sort of system I like...some days opportunities exist, somedays they don't.

Be patient!

[crash]

What did I learn...not sure! That's not true...I had confidence to stick with what had proven successful in the past.

Be patient!

"Well I've been doing successful burgs for the last 5 yrs and it's been quite profitable ... until now. Now I'm doing 2yrs. of porridge and re-thinking my life's strategy for when I get out."

Luck is a funny old cow.

[partypooper]

STEVE, my 2 cents worth,...... I have a daily up-dated POT column , i.e. since the start of the system till NOW. To me that is the acid test because a system made 50% POT 3 years ago but is now 50% down so far this year is irrelavent (in my opinion) as it should be an on-going thing, I mean where do you draw the line 100 bets, 10,000 bets 500,000 bets?? where?

Kind of like when we hear that 30% of favs win ( near enough) we are talking about including all races since 1800 and something, if we started analysing that you could pick out "sections" that say something entirely different!

[lomaca]

Kind of like when we hear that 30% of favs win ( near enough) we are talking about including all races since 1800 and something, if we started analysing that you could pick out "sections" that say something entirely different!You will find that it's not so, the longest I found where the % was noticably less, was three meetings, where, in many people's opinion, the posted track conditions were grossly incorrect or different in patches!

[Bhagwan]

The 30% SR of Favs is concideed to be a recurring factor in racing.

As punters the Holy Grail is a a process of creating selections which in themselves becomes a recurring factor.

Thats the hard bit .

Thats the Holey Grail.

No sooner that we feel that we have discovered the missing link, then the forever shifting sands takes its toll.

[partypooper]

Bhags, I know EXACTLY what you're talking about, but that's just it; the 30% winning favs RUNNING TOTAL never seems to alter, i.e. even a ridiculous losing run hardly makes a ripple on the 30% S/R over many, many, many ,1000's of past results!

It all keeps coming back to something I saw once in an interview with a well known bookie in the UK, who said (QUOTE) "it doesn't matter what you do, any imaginable system or combination" the "shifting sands will ensure that you lose about 20% on T/O, why ? because you are being given about 80% (on average) of the true odds of ANY horses real chance of winning!!!!!!! foooooood for thought!

What we really have here is, someone spinning a coin and giving us 4-5, so you can bet every 2nd spin or every 10th spin or WHATEVER, WHATEVER, and you are still getting 80% of the the true chance???????

Result = you are going to lose 20% of every $ you bet! (eventually)