Probability questions???

[Mark]

Put this on the general forum but received no responses so trying it here.


If something happens approximately 1 in 9 times, what are the odds of it happening 3 times in a row? Is it as simple as a 9 sided dice, which would be 9x9x9 = 729?

If the average price of every 3rd fav was 6/1, how often would 3 in a row be expected to win?

[AngryPixie]

If an event has a 1 in 9 chance (0.1111) of occuring, the chance of it occuring 3 times in a row is

9 * 9 * 9 = 729

For your 3rd fav to win three times in a row at 6/1 (0.1428), assumming a 100% market and 6/1 as the actual chance of the horse winning

(6 + 1) * (6 + 1) * (6 + 1) = 343

So yep your right it is that simple :)

[Mark]

Thanks Pixie, that's exactly what I thought, but was wondering if the variables of racing change the odds. Other members are always talking about working out runs of outs according to strike rates, or in this case runs of ins. Laying the 3rd fav between certain prices shows a strike rate of around 90%, and as I see it the only way to lose (I've set limits) is if 3 win in a row. So I guess that it would happen once every 343 bets or so. There's more to it than I've let on but averaging around 40 bets per day/night, it should strike the losing run once a week at worst. So with the parameters I've set , it's looking like winning 15 units x 6 days, and losing 50 units on the 7th, thus making 40 units per week.

This idea is only in its infancy but has made 76 units over 4 days/nights, and I'm dreading the losing period.

[AngryPixie]

it should strike the losing run once a week at worst.Mmm, well maybe. It could go months without stiking three in a row, or it could strike three in a row (or more) everyday for the next week. :(

I like that price range too. It's the laying sweet spot I reckon. Since the start of June my numbers on Australian lays are:

602 lays
550 collects
91.36% strike rate
$6.14 average BF price

Not as many per week as you but similar numbers.

[Mark]

Yes nothing comes in neat boxes but all over the place instead.

Do you use a bot?, I've always been against them but succumbed to pressure from a mate who swears by it. I'm on the 5 day trial using betbotpro (sorry if that contravenes site rules), and must say I'm pretty impressed so far.

[AngryPixie]

Mark, yes I use FairBot and BetTrader PRO although neither seem to be working today :(. I've used BetBotPro also and like you found it pretty good. I'm in the process of writing one that suits my theories a bit better, but finding the time is the challenge at the moment.

I'm here

angrypixie123-propun at yahoo com au

[Bhagwan]

I have found that the 3rd Fav wins approx 13% of the time .

.13 x .13 x .13 = .22% chance of 3 in a row getting up.

Races with 9+ runners.

Min/Max price 6.00 - 7.30

Three in a row get up now & then if one waits for the previouse bets to settle first that way it breaks up the chain sequence of events a bit more thus avoiding the same thing getting up when we dont want them to.

What I find works well is to recover the loss at 120% over say 5-6 bets.
Over 6 cycles.
e.g.
5 / 120 = 24% of loss
6 / 120 = 20% of loss.
Plus add the initial bet amount to each race.

This covers the Betfair take out .

I use BetbotPro.

Back/Lay ratio 10%
That way we dont pay too much for our lay price.

If one wants a stand alone program to do this manually race to race, there is a program called TSM (The Staking Machine) that can do the calculation for you .
Costs approx $36

One can set this to recover loss only or set it to recover loss plus add initial bet for each race this also means that it makes it more expenssive to operate.

Bet ratio 1000 / 1

Stop at 3% profit for the day that way it minimises our chances of getting bit.
The more profit one goes for , the greater the chance of giving it all back.

Set stop loss at 25% of bank.

[Ill Get There]

hi bhagwan,but is that b/f 3rd fav or uni tab,bookies,newspaper?thanks ...

ps did ya back ya name sake the other day?

cheers igt

[AngryPixie]

I have found that the 3rd Fav wins approx 13% of the time .

.13 x .13 x .13 = .22% chance of 3 in a row getting up.

.13 x .13 x .13 = 0.002197 :)

It's not the three accidents in a row you should fear it's the series of closely clustered accidents that will kill.

I don't think I'm a recovery staker. I'm not owed anything for laying a winner.

[Bhagwan]

One mutiplies the resulting figure by 100 to get the percentage.

I saw that horse Bhagwan get up the other day .
I had to have a laugh .

[AngryPixie]

One mutiplies the resulting figure by 100 to get the percentage.Yes indeed quite right.


I saw that horse Bhagwan get up the other day .
I had to have a laugh .And then there's Lucky Lindsay... Chrome??? ;)