"Laying" with the data base

[Pauls123]

Hi all. I've been playing with CP's data base lately and doing the opposite, trying to look for a "lay" system. And trying to keep it simple also, without trying to match up to rating sites etc. Just wondering how many of you data base users do similar.

Of course you dont want a system that obviously finds a high % of losers but has 1 bet every pancake day. And you dont want to be laying prices to high. At this point I've settled on looking at all (saturday) races with a closing price range of $2.50 to $5.00 (not necessarily fav). Over the 9 and 1/2 years of the DB, this gave you around 58 bets per saturday (all states) with a loss of -14.5%.

The winning strike rate was 23.2%. It was pretty hard to get the LOT much higher and keep it simple, but with some tweeking I managed to get it close to -20%, still a strike rate of 21.5%, but now with only around 12 bets (lays) per saturday.

Does anyone have any fors and against something like this, happy to take it further,

Paul

[Stix]

Apparently you find a winning system, post it as winning selections but and then lay it yourself.....100% fool proof method :D



(No offence intended Chrome :p )

[Chrome Prince]

Here is a good start, first starters who are favourite.
(that's career first start)

They actually win at a greater rate, but are overbacked into poor value.
16.17% loss backing, on a 33.43% strike rate.

[goty0405]

I read something a while back about building lay systems like this and it recommended trying to find something that had a negative ROI (or LOT if you want to call it that) of around -30%. Its doable but even some of those I found dont make great lay systems anyway.

I prefer to base my lay systems on the horses that are over-bet by punters and therefore their odds arent true representations of chance. Look for things that a lot of people will see as a good sign it's a winner and then check the stats to see if it backs up. More often then not it wont.

I also think with laying as it can get volatile sometimes that have a system that bets a smaller number per day but more days is better. If you were laying 50 horses a day andd had a "bad day" your bank roll takes a big hit. For example I now have 4 lay systems in action using real money. They've been live for about 3 weeks and without actually digging out the stats overall I'd say I've had just over 100 bets (so only 33/week).