Any Dark Horses for the Cups??

[TheSchmile]

Hi All,

Wondering if anyone had any dark horses for the Big Cups?

Caulfield Cup

I still like Vigor for the Caulfield Cup. Got buffeted against the rails early in the race on Saturday, so forgive and it's previous runs this campaign have been outstanding. 51 kilo's looks luxurious.

Speed Gifted was obviously impressive on Saturday, doubt the opposition a bit but hands and heels all the way, you can't do much more.

Roman Emporer could be a smoky. Loved his run in the Derby in the Autumn when he beat Predatory Pricer and he has the GENIUS trainer in B. Cummings. Currently $26 fixed odds.


Melbourne Cup

Efficient was too impressive to ignore on Saturday but I'll wait till the spring pans out a bit for the Cup.


Cox Plate

I like Maldivian and Trusting.

Stayer to follow for the lesser staying races - DANDAAD. Didn't seem to do much in the Autumn in Sydney. Wondering if he's a Melbourne/Spring Horse. Has the Cummings polish and could pick up a listed/Group 3 type event.


Just thought I might incite a little healthy conversation to nut out the winners of the big races this spring.

Have a b-u-diful day.

Two Shoes

[Horse Whisperer]

A couple I have recently put in my Black Book that are still decent odds for the big one are Capecover and Allez Wonder. Allez Wonder is a chance as long as the tracks stay dead at the worst, and capecover has been hitting the line very hard at it's last couple.

Outside of speed gifted I think those two are pretty good value.

Agree with Maldivian in the Cox Plate, put a double on for the caulfield cup cox Plate for Speed Gifted into Maldivian @ 144-1 and Speed Gifted into So You Think (cox plate) @ 270-1

[TheSchmile]

I like your style Horse Whisperer!

Do you know much about the breeding of Allez Wonder? Do you think it'll stay the cup distance?

I think Capecover might be slightly below the standard required to win the Big ones, but it could run a cheeky place. In saying that, I never disregard the Kiwi's completely, as they seem to know a thing or two about training horses for the good races.

Two Shoes

[Horse Whisperer]

Two shoes I'm not right into the breeding side of things. She ran 3rd in the vrc oaks though she was beaten 5l, she was coming home hard. The first up run at Flemington really caught my eye this prep so got on for her next start and she won racing on the speed rather than her usuall get back style which obviously wouldnt have been suited at Moonee Valley.

The thing with the Melbourne cup I've found is I've started to look oustide what is regarded as the top horses over the 2000-2400m distances, as the 2nd raters seem to be the ones that pop up and win the race. Viewed is a great example and the year Efficient won it could hardly be regarded as one of the top chances and it's winning price showed. That's why I don't mind Capecover.

[Makybe Diva]

Like Viewed and Zipping in CC. Both hit the line hard in their past few races.

[sandgroperwa]

Seven-year-old mare Varevees, who ran fourteenth in last year's Melbourne Cup, will be aimed at Australia's richest race once again.



Varevees contested last year's Melbourne Cup under the tutelage of British trainer Richard Gibson, however has since been in the care of in-form Cranbourne-based trainer Mick Kent.

"I'm really pleased with her," Kent told The Virtual Formguide.

"She's now got a lot stronger like those European mares do.

"I think she's got a big motor and I'm hoping that with a season under her belt that she might find her true form," Kent added.

Varevees is likely to resume in the $200,000 Group 2 Stock Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley on September 12 with Kent mindful that the daughter of Irish sire, Kahyasi, must re-qualify for the Melbourne Cup.

"She might have to go through races like the Bart Cummings or Winning Edge to earn a start in the Cup," he said.

The $150,000 Bart Cummings (2500m) will be held at Flemington on October 3 while the $200,000 Group 2 Winning Edge Stakes (2400m) at Caulfield a week later on October 10.

Varevees last win was back in September 2007, when victorious in the Group 3 Gladiateur Stakes (3100m) at Longchamp, France.

Because of that stakes victory, Varevees has passed the balloting conditions of the Melbourne Cup by a month.

[Makybe Diva]

Seven-year-old mare Varevees, who ran fourteenth in last year's Melbourne Cup, will be aimed at Australia's richest race once again.



Varevees contested last year's Melbourne Cup under the tutelage of British trainer Richard Gibson, however has since been in the care of in-form Cranbourne-based trainer Mick Kent.

"I'm really pleased with her," Kent told The Virtual Formguide.

"She's now got a lot stronger like those European mares do.

"I think she's got a big motor and I'm hoping that with a season under her belt that she might find her true form," Kent added.

Varevees is likely to resume in the $200,000 Group 2 Stock Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley on September 12 with Kent mindful that the daughter of Irish sire, Kahyasi, must re-qualify for the Melbourne Cup.

"She might have to go through races like the Bart Cummings or Winning Edge to earn a start in the Cup," he said.

The $150,000 Bart Cummings (2500m) will be held at Flemington on October 3 while the $200,000 Group 2 Winning Edge Stakes (2400m) at Caulfield a week later on October 10.

Varevees last win was back in September 2007, when victorious in the Group 3 Gladiateur Stakes (3100m) at Longchamp, France.

Because of that stakes victory, Varevees has passed the balloting conditions of the Melbourne Cup by a month.

Old article. Bart Cummings was run last weekend.

[Chuck]

Speed Gifted into So You Think (cox plate) @ 270-1

you'd be looking good there....


i backed Harris Tweed (CC) into So You Think at 1500-1 , should have gone speed gifted as well :(

[sandgroperwa]

Old article. Bart Cummings was run last weekend.
hello hello but horse didnt

[sandgroperwa]

MOURILYAN (IRE) (Gary Moore)
Bankable will bid for Group One success at the Melbourne Spring Carnival next month after obliging as the odds-on favourite in the Fortune Stakes at Sandown.

The five-year-old will jet out to Australia along with stablemate and Emirates Melbourne Cup candidate Mourilyan, with both carrying Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov's colours.

The pair will race for Herman Brown, and Bankable signed off his spell with Gary Moore by landing odds of 4-7 under the trainer's son, Ryan.

Moore's assistant David Wilson said: "He did it well in the end and the rain helped.

"He has been with us four or five months and has gradually improved and improved. He even came on for his first run for us at Windsor.

"The plan is for him and Mourilyan to head into quarantine and they will then both race in Australia for Herman Brown."

Brown's assistant Nicols Iguacel added: "He will run in a Grade One race on October 31, and Mourilyan will then run four days later in the Melbourne Cup.
http://src.racingvictoria.net.au/springracingcarnival/springtv.aspx (http://src.racingvictoria.net.au/springracingcarnival/springtv.aspx)

watch goodwood cup
early markets MOURILYAN 35.00 47.60 52.30

[TheSchmile]

Horse Whisperer, I'm not sure I agree with 'Viewed is a great example and the year Efficient won it could hardly be regarded as one of the top chances and it's winning price showed' as while they were both seemingly out of form at the time, they definitely had class and both were Derby winners.

While I didn't personally didn't back either of them, I won't dispute that Capecover has an outside chance, so best of luck!!

Regarding Harris Tweed, I haven't seen any of its spring form, how's it travelling Chuck?

So You Think was a great call. Could be anything!

Two Shoes

[Horse Whisperer]

Twoshoes what I meant was they wernt regarded as up there with the top group one horses leading up to the Cup. Yes they raced in the top group 1 races but they were hardly competitive. Viewed's best win was the group 2 Brisbane Cup and Efficient had won the derby and vase. Neither of the horses had even placed in any group races in the prep leading into their cup win.

[TheSchmile]

Fair play Horse Whisperer!

I completely see where you're coming from and agree you need a horse or two outside the box to throw some spice into the mix.

Two Shoes

[Makybe Diva]

hello hello but horse didnt

Yes that was my point. Also why post news when its not news?

[Reckless]

Yes I agree the best is yet to come from Vigor. It will be interesting to see what Williams gets for alledgedly causing that interference.

Speed Gifted is still not exposed enough for mine. In his three wins in Australia
he has not beaten strong fields - although he has looked pretty good. In the one start against reasonable strength he went OK but not brilliant. But for a horse with so few starts it is hard to tell what potential might be developed.

Agree with your thinking about Roman Emperor.

[Matilda]

Like Viewed and Zipping in CC. Both hit the line hard in their past few races.

I have the same thought on Viewed and Zipping. PP was good as well. Efficient effort was good.

[Chuck]

Regarding Harris Tweed, I haven't seen any of its spring form, how's it travelling Chuck?



the trainer is was very happy with its progress over in NZ, but did put in a poor run on saturday in the kelt capital

[Makybe Diva]

I have the same thought on Viewed and Zipping. PP was good as well. Efficient effort was good.

Just checking market and Zipping doesn't appear to be nominated for the CC so I'm guessing he's being aimed at the MC or MVC.

[Reckless]

Yep Williams on Maldivian got 10 meetings at Spring Carnival time - clearly stewards not impressed.

Possibly he put paid to the chances of a couple of runners - maybe also flaterring the win by Efficient.

[TheSchmile]

Nice work Chuck and Restless,

Have seen the Noms for the Yalumba. Do horses generally win or place in the top 4 of the Yalumba, then win the Caulfield Cup? Any available stats?
The Herbert Power also has some interesting runners.

I saw a couple of the imports are running again in the Caulfield Cup and then the Melbourne. It makes much more sense than running straight up in the Melbourne.

International Raiders

Profound Beauty is back, I found some form for Kirklees and Cima De Triomphe if anyone is interested:
Cima De Triomphe (http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/racing/horse.aspx?horse_code=794141) Kirklees form (http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/Racing/horse.aspx?horse_code=797416)

Apparently Francesca Cumani will be doing some media work as well, which is almost the most exciting news of the Spring Carnival - ha ha

Two Shoes

[pharfromoz]

dont know if these horses will be running in a cup but im sure they will run on that day.

wanna get another shot at PRIMA NOVA. was unlucky on 2 runs back then recently with boss he forgot to come out with the group and rushed up the beginning of the race which hurt his chances.

2nd horse was MENTALITY with darren beadman up for m, hawkes but was scratched.

[pharfromoz]

dont know if these horses will be running in a cup but im sure they will run on that day.

wanna get another shot at PRIMA NOVA. was unlucky on 2 runs back then recently with boss he forgot to come out with the group and rushed up the beginning of the race which hurt his chances.

2nd horse was MENTALITY with darren beadman up for m, hawkes but was scratched.
MENTALITY
CAULFIELD Race 6 No 4 at 15:20
DAVID JONES TOORAK HCP. GG1. 51.0. (1600m)
Your comment: d. beadman on for m,hawkes- scratched

i also have another blackbooker racing that day.

HEADWAY for moody i believe.

[Kanga]

Profound Beauty is back
It's out.

[Horse Whisperer]

pretty happy with my allez wonder bet now.

[Makybe Diva]

Been mentioned in here but Dandaad seemed unlucky yesterday when it went for a tight run in the straight. Hoorang also finished off nicely in Alcopop's race. Still that race hasn't generally been a good form indicator for the two Cups.

In terms of the Cox Plate, I think Zipping will be primed for the race and Vision and Power also showed something yesterday.

Baughurst's run was also enormous and it should win another race sometime during the carnival. Master O'Reilly also finished off okay.

[Wexford]

Agree with you Makybe but bit tough to qualify for the MC, but looking to turn loss into a profit over the carnival, maybe the MV Cup or the Hotham on Derby day

[Matilda]

you'd be looking good there....


i backed Harris Tweed (CC) into So You Think at 1500-1 , should have gone speed gifted as well :(


Gone...

[pharfromoz]

dont know if these horses will be running in a cup but im sure they will run on that day.

wanna get another shot at PRIMA NOVA. was unlucky on 2 runs back then recently with boss he forgot to come out with the group and rushed up the beginning of the race which hurt his chances.

2nd horse was MENTALITY with darren beadman up for m, hawkes but was scratched.well boss gets the boot. she had bad luck two back then boss fell asleep in the gate last out at flemington.

corey brown rides

You have blackbook horses racing on October 14:
PRIMA NOVA
CAULFIELD Race 7 No 2 at 16:20
........................ CLASSIC. GLR. 0.0. (1600m)
Your comment: aj cummingssaid had bad lcuk- cummings won 2 of 3 entered.


sweet 16/1 up here in the states.

[Privateer]

Hey, Horse Whisperer, where did you mention in the thread that you had backed Allez Wonder in the CC? Your posts suggest you supported (and lost your money) on Speed Gifted in a double.

[Horse Whisperer]

Privateer I mentioned Allez Wonder in the 2nd post of the thread? Though your right I did also mention a double which I've done my cash on, one of many......

[Makybe Diva]

Baughurst's run was also enormous and it should win another race sometime during the carnival.

Should be today

[crash]

Baughurst won't get a spot today unless there is a late scr. For bolters, maybe Ready to lift or Red Lord might steam home from the rear?

[Percentum]

I think Red Lord's got a good chance. He's an impossible horse to follow but when he puts his best hoof forward can win in top company. Harris Tweed could return to form with a good run from the barrier too.

[Makybe Diva]

Baughurst won't get a spot today unless there is a late scr. For bolters, maybe Ready to lift or Red Lord might steam home from the rear?

Race before mate and indeed it did win today:)

[pharfromoz]

Vigors is a head case but i like him for the melbourne cup if he gets a better draw. think 22 draw made him place in spot that wasnt to his liking because he had to pull the trigger early but when he took the front he became a head case and didnt know what to do.they passed him then he went forward again because he had a target.

gonna need a good post next out and plenty of targets in front of him so they can pull the trigger on him somewhere closer to the finish

[Raw Instinct]

Just giving out a tip for the fav in the Geelong Cup tomorrow guys Basaltico has some nice european form thrashed Cima De Triomphe a couple of starts back in rome he is my first futures bet for the cup and most likely my only as I just wanted to try and get some value with an early bet.

Other than that can't knock Hume thought his run on saturday was great when he didn't get alot of room.

[Kanga]

Just giving out a tip for the fav in the Geelong Cup tomorrow guys Basaltico has some nice european form thrashed Cima De Triomphe a couple of starts back in rome he is my first futures bet for the cup and most likely my only as I just wanted to try and get some value with an early bet.

Other than that can't knock Hume thought his run on saturday was great when he didn't get alot of room.
Great minds eh ;)
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GEELONG CUP BASALTICO @Price:$6.50</TD><TD class=TableCell></TD><TD class=TableCell>6.5</TD><TD class=TableCell>0</TD><TD class=TableCell align=right> </TD><TD class=TableCell align=right> </TD></TR><TR class=TableText><TD class="TableCellAlt Table">20/10/2009</TD><TD class=TableCellAlt>14:37</TD><TD class=TableCellAlt>20/10/2009</TD><TD class=TableCellAlt>Sports Racing Double</TD><TD class=TableCellAlt>81012
2009 MELBOURNE CUP (ALL IN) BASALTICO @Price:$51.00</TD><TD class=TableCellAlt></TD><TD class=TableCellAlt>51</TD><TD class=TableCellAlt>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[crash]

Geelong Cup:

BASALTICO [?]
OK, I'll stick my neck out and pot this horse:-)
Apart from the Ollie factor, am I missing something? Basaltico's European form was dismal and in mostly weaker races too. Ok effort last start for a 2nd. but it was only a $40k C2 race. Last win was a year ago in a $100k race. All other efforts since then have been terrible [formline: 1,5,13,7,3,6,8,4,2]. One win and 2 placings and none of those races had prize money anywhere near today's $400k Cup. Should be 50/1!

A few leaders in this so I'll go for the WA on-pacer GUYNO having a [sneaky?] big form reversal after his last start flop on a heavy track and 3 failures on dead trks. An on-pacer who can really fly on a good track over this distance. 5th up, nice weight and a good barrier. e/w

[crash]

Made a mistake, Geelong Cup only worth $215k [?]

[crash]

Geelong Cup:

BASALTICO [?]

A few leaders in this so I'll go for the WA on-pacer GUYNO having a [sneaky?] big form reversal after his last start flop on a heavy track and 3 failures on dead trks. An on-pacer who can really fly on a good track over this distance. 5th up, nice weight and a good barrier. e/w


GUYNO didn't fire and ran almost as badly as that Italian donkey BASALTICO!

Nice win by Like a Ding.

[Raw Instinct]

Thanks Crash no worries

[Raw Instinct]

Crash anyone would think the horse ran awfully granted it wasn't anything spectacular but it got held up in the straight by Young Centaur and hit the line fairly decently I felt from where it was on the turn not saying i wanted to through the house on it or anything but I am happy enough to have something on heading towards the cup if it gets in there.

[Reckless]

I heard it bled ---cant remember if one or both nostrils.

[Raw Instinct]

I was talking about Basaltico which was who I had tipped which Crash obviously felt was a garbage tip, Guyno did bleed from both nostrels from what i have heard.

On a side note the fact that Oliver rode the horse was no reason why I tipped it he is one jockey who has never swayed me to tip him he simply never wins when I do tip something he is riding regardless of price.

[crash]

I think my main point about BASALTICO and why I got stuck into him was because of the ridiculously short pp odds it never deserved. No form guide mentioned the fact that his last start 2nd was in a C2 only worth $40k. nor overall poor form for the last year.

Anyway he won't be making it into the Cup and really should be sent back to Italy. I can't work out why the horse ever came here in the first place [?]

[Raw Instinct]

The fact he beat home Cima De Triomphe by about 11 lengths in a group 1 in November last year where he came from last and Cima De Triomphe pretty much had the run of the race was most of the reason why I was tipping him the run was very good I had seen it on the net before making the tip granted that form was 12 months old but thought it was good enough to be competitive at the odds that were available.

[crash]

I see your point Raw, but 12mth old form [8 poor starts ago] is not worth a cracker really, nor the short odds in the Geelong Cup for a first-up run in Oz after a 6wk break. A bookie's 'hype' horse I think. I'll stick to my original 'should have been 50/1'. Would have been about right in hindsight.

[darkydog2002]

Put a line through all the wiz bang tipsters selections and those flogged to death in the racing columns then bet all the other horses that havent got a mention.

Cheers.
darky

[Horse Whisperer]

Interesting to see how the runners mentioned earlier in this thread run tomorrow in the big one. Roman Emperor, Allez Wonder, Capecover, Mourilyan, Harris Tweed, Viewed and Basaltico

[partypooper]

Well how about a distance winner???? no 17 Spin Around??

[Raw Instinct]

I am turning into a fan of both Basaltico and Mourilyan here today be interesting to see how they go I don't think Munsef is hopeless either has a bit of a Jardine's Lookout feel about it just looks like it will keep whacking away.

[crash]

Well if Savite plays the sacrifice again this start to set up a bit of pace for Bart's horse's, a lot of this field are going to be caught out by the cup distance. Their not going to get the jog and sprint they want. A genuine stayer should win this and if Alcopop is the real article [can go the distance] he should win but he is yet to prove himself in a really tough race and is poor odds.

The tipsters have been all flogging Viewed and the Breakfast Cereal to death so it might be worth going wide and looking at proven stayers and keeping an eye on the track condition before final selection[s].

[Filante]

I am turning into a fan of both Basaltico and Mourilyan here today be interesting to see how they go I don't think Munsef is hopeless either has a bit of a Jardine's Lookout feel about it just looks like it will keep whacking away.

Basaltico missed the start at Geelong then got checked in the straight. Even so, when he got clear he didn't seem to accelerate as fast as the winner. No doubt he'll be better with the run under his belt and up to 3200m, but it was a pretty weak Geelong Cup. I think he and Crime Scene are the two overseas horses with some hope.

[pharfromoz]

shocking- time to step it up, love the turn of foot. c brown needs to sit him in the garden spot early.

basaltico- wants the track wet
.........................................................
heres what im looking at

#1 viewed
#3 fiumicino
#18 basaltico
20f,21f- daffodil/shocking

[crash]

Alcopops didn't go the distance and Viewed was never in it as top weight. Proven stayers 1,2,3!

Bottom weights ruling the day mostly and the bookies will be partying tonight!

[Try Try Again]

Congratulations to Jake Stephens (Alcopop) and Jarryd McLean (Kibbutz) for getting their horses to run in the first 10. Two young trainers and I'm sure the $115K will be well received.

[darkydog2002]

Dark horses eh.
Well I bought me old mate ""erry" (he,s a bit of a dark horse )along to the races after his stint at the Bangkok Hilton. Dressed up like toffs we were -blue singlets and shorts (we only had 1 pair of thongs so we shared 1 each - thats mates for ya.
As we entered the fashions of the field some old toff asked us whether we,d lost a thong .Nah we said "found one"
Anyway we didnt win there either but all in all a very pleasant day.
darky