Lay question

[thorns]

I have been playing round with the idea of laying at the moment. At present the idea is showing a 25% LOT using betfair prices after 5% deductions. Now, this method has come from filtering a win method so have not been recording lay prices, only have the available win prices which I could have taken. I notice that generally the available lay prices are slightly higher than the back prices, is there a general rule as to what I should add to check if the method is actually viable laying? So showing a 25% LOT, would adding 5-10% to that be realistic to give an idea of what laying would show?

[michaelg]

Thorns,

the Lay price is generally only one click higher than the Bet price. For example, if the bet price was $3.00 then it was most likely that the Lay price was $3.05.

If you are showing a 25% LOT using Bet prices then the profit on Laying should only be a few percentage points less than the 25% which is impressive. However, I'm assuming the prices for your method are not in a high price range where one click could easily be $0.50 or more which could mean the difference of quite a few percentage points.

[AngryPixie]

Thorns

I'll disagree with Michael a little and say "it depends when/where your betting". A mid-week country meeting could see a lay price as much as 30% or more above the back price. This is especially true (as Michael points out) if you're interest is in the mid or longer priced runners. A Saturday metro meeting will be different again, as will a country meeting coming right on the heels of a metro race where those that bet "hand to mouth" may not have been paid out yet.

Oh and the time you placed the bet makes a big difference too. If your backs where placed early in the betting then the matching lay price would generally have been very much longer.

You could compare your results against those Betfair provides. That'd give you the best idea.

[thorns]

Cheers guys, my bets are generally all at the sharper end of the market, 98% under $10, and I take my back prices at around 30 seconds to advertised jump, depending on what the price is doing. Would be lovely if it holds up at the current low SR and return, but am thinking it could more be variance than a true result as im targeting horses under $10 in barriers 1-6, and have a SR of 18% which seems far to low for favoured horses in good barriers.

Will have a look over some previous results, but perhaps the best way is going to be to record lay prices as I move forward in testing.

[Bhagwan]

I have found that the lay price can often be within .20c if one waits until the last 10-20 secs.

I feel you are on the right track trying for low prices.

Just have a look at any tipsters first selection & note how short in price most are, usually 5.90 & less.

Also note how many fall over in this price range.

Maybe this could be a strong base to place your filters over.

I reckon you could target just one venue a day & lay all the tipsters top selections between 3.50-5.90 & at level stakes say 1% of bank , & it should show a profit.

Cheers.

[Moderator 3]

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