Maidens having 2nd start, Database help

[jackact]

I seem to be getting enough long shots to make this pay, but would really appreciate help from someone with a Unitab database to check it out longer term:
-All Maidens 1400m and shorter,
-No more than two first starters in the race,
-The selection is the best Unitab rated of those having their second start. If two or more equal ratings, skip the race.

[Bhagwan]

Is that 2nd career start
or
2nd start after a spell?

[jackact]

Yes, Bhagwan, second career start. So on Unitab site, would show either as just one number e.g 5, or 5X if the horse had one start and then a spell.
Sorry I didn't make it clear.
Regards,
Jackact

[crash]

Ratings for a 2nd start horse would be based on what? Their 1st. start, breeding or how much was paid for the horse at sale? All notoriously unreliable rating data, so any rating would have to be a bit of a guess.

Very few maidens win their second start. So long term you would need a very good average win price to come out in front wouldn't you?

[jackact]

Agree, Crash, I do need the occasional long shot. I don't really know on what Unitab (AAP?) base their maiden rates. I assume it is class of maiden, beaten margin.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for that Jackact.

It looks promising on past results.

Right!
I know I am changing the original rules here, but here goes.

I'm going to back all maidens that are having their 2nd career start in that distance range & make a fortune.

Stick your own personal filters over it.(Optional)

If more than one , bet the lot.

I'm going to be rich...so be warned.

[jackact]

Thanks, Bhagwan, I am encouraged by your enthusiasm. Lets know how you are going, say after a month. (If it goes as well as you expect, I guess you will be replying from Tahiti or similar!)
Jackact

[crash]

I'm going to be rich...so be warned.

Today:

Bathurst
1/3,4 [unp]
3/12 [unp]
4/8 [unp]
Benalla
1/5,7,8,13, [5 win 11.80]
2/8 [unp]
5/1 [unp]
COFFS HARBOUR
3/5,7 [unp]
TOOWOOMBA CUSHION
1/2.3.4.6,8 [6-2nd. rest unp]
2/3,4 [unp]
WYNDHAM
1/7,10 [unp]
2/5,8 [5-unp., 8-2nd]
3/1 [unp]

out=24, in=11.80, loss=12.20

[Ill Get There]

think hes only having a lend of yas...pullin ya leg lol

notorious for that e is

[Bhagwan]

Failed one day lets chuck it in the bin.
One day means nothing.
Seeing that someone is fishing for a negative (Friday 23rd) , lets plonk in a positive to reflect a little balance.

One of the rules observed was , no bet in races with 4+ first starters.
1400m & less.
Yesterdays results (Thurs 22nd)

Ipswich
1/ 8 9 11 ---$83.70
2/ 11 ----Loss

Hawk
3/ 5 8 13 14 ---$3.30
8/ 10 11 ---L

Ballarat
2/ 6 7 10 ---$10.80
3/ 9 13---L

Geraldton
1/ 4 8 12 ----$28.30
4/ 5 -----L

Out-- $19.00
In ----$126.00
Profit $107.00

Even with that $83.70 winner taken out, it would still have shown a +$23.30 profit.

[crash]

think hes only having a lend of yas...pullin ya leg lol

notorious for that e is

I agree. But I thought it best to have a look at the results of those revised 'bet all of em' rules anyway, just in case someone didn't twig to the joke and started throwing their money away. No joke there.

[Bhagwan]

Some good priced winners with this plan on Wed 28 Oct.

Maybe one rule to consider is to target runners $8.00+

[jackact]

<meta http-equiv="CONTENT-TYPE" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><title></title><meta name="GENERATOR" content="OpenOffice.org 3.0 (Win32)"><style type="text/css"> <!-- @page ** margin: 2cm ** P ** margin-bottom: 0.21cm ** --> </style> We do need to cut out some of the losers, and it seems that the strike rate on shorter priced candidates isn't much better that on longshots, so yes, it makes sense to restrict bets to better priced candidates. Bhagwan, maybe we should take note of Crash's warning that 2^nd starters are suspect, perhaps by ignoring the shorter priced ones.

Most winners seem to come from 1200m and up races, so this might be a filter. The reasoning would be that first start, a horse might be finding its feet in a shorter Maiden, and then improve sharply over a bit longer. I also see that a good number of the winners had a spell after their first run. The explanation here might be that something went wrong with the horse in the run first start, or pulled up sore, and therefore may improve sharply at the second try. Won't apply to all horses, but we need to catch only a few like the $17.00 winner yesterday to cover the losers.

Good luck with it!

Jackact

[jackact]

The NX approach maybe the way to go. A few losers this week, but one bet Saturday- Gold Coast R3 No2 - $32.30 a win.

[jackact]

May have to reduce the distance filter to 1100m from 1200m after today. Three candidates in 1100m races, for one win, $17.80, Bordertown R2 No 4.

[cinna]

Mornington 4 - 12 1500m, 2nd start, Musgrove trained, $57 Unitab.

[TWOBETS]

Pity the poor souls that layed that on Betfew.

[cinna]

They've been flying these last few days, all over the place & not just restricted to Mdns, low grade races too.
I've been restricting bets to about $15+, a bit flexible depending on field & pool size, but having just a couple of bucks straight out & Q or **** with the fav or 1st 2 in the betting if they're close. One Q paid $140 at the GC on Sat but I also had 3rd which was more than just annoying as I hadn't done a tri http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif.......still, little fish are sweet.
Whoever said bets aren't too numerous is dead right too which is a big help.

[cinna]

I'm getting some very good results with this little gem but feel it could do with some more refining so am hoping someone with statistical data on hand may have the time & inclination to do some number crunching :-?
I've kept no records so I'm just going on memory & observation so feel free (anyone) to tinker!

Maidens to C2 or equivalent.
No city tracks.
2nd up from an unplaced previous run.
1000m - 1400m
Odds: $12+

Variables to think about are: No heavy tracks in the middle of summer as they're unlikely to have been trained for that scenario?
The 1000m races are often inundated with 1st uppers which regularly seem to win these so perhaps to increase the distance limit to 1100m?
Not sure about 1400m either, maybe 1300?
Eric Musgrove had a huge paying 1600m winner but they 'seem' to be very rare in spite of there being quite a few contenders so I leave them these days.

The other dabble I've had is to quinella/exacta them with the 2 favs which again can go well e.g. R1 Wangaratta y/day, $49 Qu & $78 E.
Bets don't seem to be too numerous so far & I take my form from the Unitab site as it's quick/easy as well as having updated late riders, unlike Supertab!!
The odds can be very tricky with NSW & Vic tabs often showing a $2+ discrepancy from moments after they jump to a later 'click' as pools collate, particularly on the smaller meetings so I guess this has to be a judgement call. Seems to happen with the 'shorter' odds ones, e.g. $10 - $13 pre jump.
A belated Happy New Year to all too :lol:
Edited as it doesn't seem to like the Quinella word in the right order :lol: & I'd forgotten to put the odds qualifier in!

[cinna]

So far:
Taree 2 - 2 qualifiers = loss
" " 3 - 4 " " = Fav won; Quin S/tab $30
A/rat 2 - 5 " " = Fav won; Quin $ " " $66
" " 3 - 3 " " = Loss