Triple Selection Method

[Try Try Again]

I'm putting up this selection method because it shows a high win strike rate (40% to 50%), but unfortunately it only breaks even at Best Tote. Someone may be able to tweak it to show a better return.

Use Unitab site.

Selection must be the same first selection by Radio Tab and Tipster. It must also be the 100 point rater on Unitab.

That's all. It has been showing consistent results since 1st September 2009.

I have not considered class of race, distance, number of starters, track conditions or day of race.

[Bhagwan]

One method that will tweek it into profit is the Fibonnacci staking plan.
Seletion has to be 2.60+ to make it work.
1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 = 86

Have 5 banks of 86.00
This allows for 5 lots of 8 outs in a row.

Start again after 8 outs in a row.
Start again if a winner is struck at 2.60+

Only bet the selection is 2.60+ using Betfair.
Wont work using the TAB because of the fluctuating prices.

[partypooper]

TRYTRYAGAIN, I've done a lot or work along those lines reserching over the last few years.

If you only bet when the selection is late mail it tweaks into profit but the bets are few and nearly always overbet. The more you tweak it the better the S/R and the less the POT and most importantly too few bets.

better to start looking along the lines of not many filters to find a small POT but heaps of bets. An added benefit is that you can have heaps of say $50 bets without affecting the Tote,whereas a few very large bets will definitly affect the Divi.

Good luck

PS Another one is that you are nearly always better betting Top Fluc with these shorties if available rather than best tote. (as you know you can only get best tote/SP at Metro meets anyway)

If you do bet all week and prefer best tote make sure you bet with the mob that gives you BEST OF 3 TOTES ALL MEETS 7 DAYS, and then best of 3/SP for Metro Meets.

[Try Try Again]

Thanks for the reply Partypooper.

I've had a closer look at the results and and with a couple of major filters I have turned this from a "break even" to approximately 50% POT.

Obviously, with any filters you are reducing the number of bets with the aim of improving the return. The filters I have implemented have reduced the bets by approx. 80% but has increased both the strike rate and %POT.

My only hope is this trend continues as I have only been following this method since 1st September 2009. Fingers are crossed!

[Bhagwan]

What one has to try & keep in mind is that small final volumn of bets always play tricks with us by flipping the other way when our small sample says that it shouldn't.

[partypooper]

I remember seeing an interview with a flambouyant Bookie called John banks I think it was around the 80's, anyway his quotable quote was that when he goes to the races with 1000 quid he "hopes" to win 100quid , wheras the punters go to the course with 100 quid and expects to win 1000quid.

Massive empires have been built with a house advantage (guaranteed) with only around 2%-3%.

If one can find a method that gives us 'that' guaranteed permanently then, Carribean here we come!

[Try Try Again]

2 winners and a 2nd from 3 bets yesterday, although both winners were short!
Still managed 40% POT.

Fingers still crossed!

[partypooper]

G'day "try", can't be bothered looking but just by chance where those selections also Late mail?

[Try Try Again]

Hi Partypooper,

Only one winner was a Late Mail selection Ascot Race 2 #1 Thorn Dancer ($1.70), neither of the other 2 selections were.

[partypooper]

G'Day TRY, Thorn dancer was $1.80c (best Tote) and I think $1.90c Top Fluc so there you go POT increased from 40% to at least 80% with 1 single rule!!

[Try Try Again]

Hi Partypooper,

I think you will find Thorn Dancer was $1.60 (Best Tote), $1.70 (SP) and $1.80 (TF). It may have been better on Betfair but I do not use this outlet.

[partypooper]

TRY, probably,....... I backed it with Sportsbet so was paid $1.80c, I thought I saw TF was $1.90c but was only going from memory. But in general these shorties seem to be better backed TF.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Partypooper,

You must have backed it at Top Flucc. as I also backed it with Sportsbet but only at Citybest+ and got paid $1.70. Your thoughts about backing the "shorties" at Top Flucc. are well supported here!

Where do you draw the line about Top Flucc and Citybest+? What price do you consider one over the other? Any thoughts?

[partypooper]

Try, well for me I reckon that 3-1 is the cut off i.e. up to 3-1 ($4) back at Top Fluc, over $4 back at Best Tote/Sp is available or of course best of 3 totes if not (different mob)

Problem is what to use for the guide, for me I use the WA TAB-FORM pre post prices, I haven't really tried others so I don't know which is more accurate really, but I have been told previously that the Turf Talk radio prices are near the mark but I miss the broadcast or get tied up with a customer etc etc. so I just prefer the TAB FORM.

Good luck!

[Mancunian]

I'm putting up this selection method because it shows a high win strike rate (40% to 50%), but unfortunately it only breaks even at Best Tote. Someone may be able to tweak it to show a better return.

Use Unitab site.

Selection must be the same first selection by Radio Tab and Tipster. It must also be the 100 point rater on Unitab.

That's all. It has been showing consistent results since 1st September 2009.

I have not considered class of race, distance, number of starters, track conditions or day of race.

I've been looking at almost the same thing for a while prompted by Party and michaelg in the thread "100 Raters" a few months ago.
I use - Unitab 100 rater / RadioTab 1st selection, and the top rater from another source. If at least 2 of the 3 sources have it on top then I apply a couple of Partys suggested qualifiers (thanks PP).
For your info re consistency the precis of the results from mid April 09 up to 31 Aug is :
Out 210, Win return 213.80, Place return 204.10 (Unitab for simplicity.
This is any day of the week any venue (in Australia) covered by Unitab.
cheers.....Mancunian

[Try Try Again]

Thanks Partypooper.

I used your suggestion of taking Top Flucc at <=$4.00 (using pre-post odds from Saturday Herald-Sun) and although 2 of the 3 winners it didn't matter the third winner gave an extra 40c on the win dividend compared with SP/Best Tote dividends. It all adds up!

By the way 3 winners and 2 seconds from the 5 bets today. Fingers are still crossed!

[partypooper]

TRY, glad it worked for you today, there was a couple of juicy ones ey? remember though sometimes it can go the other way and you are cursing, i.e. Top Fluc $3, when one of the totes pays $3.80 or something BUT overall it tends to swing to Top Fluc on the <$4.01c

I ended up in front BUT it could have been the big one if Cassandras Shadow had done done just a little bit better!! ah well, NEXT WEEK EY?

[Try Try Again]

Could have been a big day for you Partypooper if Cassandras Shadow had gone 2 places better (and to be beaten by two outsiders as well!).

I have gone back over my results and if I had taken Top Flucc instead on SP/Best Tote I would have improved my POT% by 2.2%.

As you said there will be "swings and roundabouts". In the past few months there has been 43 winners with 12 being the same, 20 better and 11 worse using Top Flucc over SP/Best Tote.

Wouldn't it be great if you could predict when one way was better then the other!

[partypooper]

Try, for selections at Melbourne remember that LUXBET, does BOB (best of best) i.e. you are paid Top Fluc or best tote whichever is higher. This is the product that we want across the board, I'm sure it will come!

[Try Try Again]

Thanks for the heads-up Partypooper, I didn't know that. Yes, it would be great if all operators offered "BOB"! Bring it on.