subtle expressions of glee

[topsy99]

some time back I backed Friday Creek at 56/1 and expressed great exhortations of jumpings for joy and had my thread removed by the moderator. However I have learned to sneak up on a significant gloat and wanted to express my opinion.

On Saturday I scored on New Edge and the same principle applied as to Friday Creek. New Edge won at Kembla in a good race in March at 55/1 also.
I have mentioned that I only follow listed horses and in the race on Saturday on my points system New Edge had 22 points the highest in the race.
Friday Creek had 19 points the most in each case in the race.
Tears i Cry had 18 points equal with molotov on Saturday. a few weeks ago Sniper's Bullet had 66 in the railway stakes 74 in the fruit and veg and Tarzi had 39 in the Railway and ran 2nd.
Class not form seems to be a strong determinant in winning I have always heard this but couldnt measure it. But at least I can now afford a new hat. I could quote a lot more, e.g. Baci Amore 8 points won at 14/1 My limit 7 points won 11/1 Pepperwood had 19 points on saturday against my limit with 7 points secrets untold had 17 points. in some of these races there are out of form horses with more points and some faith is required but maybe it separates the wheat from the chaff. Shocking had 22 points. viewed had 31 points when he won the Caulfield cup. Maybe this helps the patient punter. A month ago Posadas won in Sydney at $34 he had 18 points.

[kiwiz]

Hi topsy99

A bit of clarification please, if you don't mind

"I only follow listed horses"

The horses you focus on - previously just ran or had to be placed or had to be winners (in "listed" races)?

And does "listed" include all black-type races or just "listed" only

Thanks

[Makybe Diva]

some time back I backed Friday Creek at 56/1 and expressed great exhortations of jumpings for joy and had my thread removed by the moderator. However I have learned to sneak up on a significant gloat and wanted to express my opinion.

On Saturday I scored on New Edge and the same principle applied as to Friday Creek. New Edge won at Kembla in a good race in March at 55/1 also.
I have mentioned that I only follow listed horses and in the race on Saturday on my points system New Edge had 22 points the highest in the race.
Friday Creek had 19 points the most in each case in the race.
Tears i Cry had 18 points equal with molotov on Saturday. a few weeks ago Sniper's Bullet had 66 in the railway stakes 74 in the fruit and veg and Tarzi had 39 in the Railway and ran 2nd.
Class not form seems to be a strong determinant in winning I have always heard this but couldnt measure it. But at least I can now afford a new hat. I could quote a lot more, e.g. Baci Amore 8 points won at 14/1 My limit 7 points won 11/1 Pepperwood had 19 points on saturday against my limit with 7 points secrets untold had 17 points. in some of these races there are out of form horses with more points and some faith is required but maybe it separates the wheat from the chaff. Shocking had 22 points. viewed had 31 points when he won the Caulfield cup. Maybe this helps the patient punter. A month ago Posadas won in Sydney at $34 he had 18 points.

How about you post these points before the races and not after

[topsy99]

first. i keep a database of all placings and wnners of group 1, 2, 3 and 4 (lsted races) plus any high event races that are not listed eg. magic millions races etc. and give them a points rating. i have my database back to 1999 and have been messin with this for that long.
I tally up the points and deal with the highet number first.

in respect of the other inquiry regarding posting early. I am not sure of any obligation to post selections but am giving others an idea of my methods which I enjoy.
If it is of any use then good. if not interestd then okay.

[kiwiz]

Thanks for getting back to me Laurie, cheers mate :)

[topsy99]

regardomg kiwz. i give the following points. group 1 won 8 place 7
group 2 6 (w) 5 (p) g3 w 4 p 3 listed 2 place 1. higher staked races 2 w p 1.


question for yourself and makybe diva. sorry makybe you are asking too much. i only operate race by race and dont spend all day friday preparing for saturday. its got to be easy or i think racing occupies too much of my life.


question for both of you. when you look at a race does the field tell you the above information or maybe the trainer is waiting for a race. or do they all look the same and we focus on the best recent form which may be misleading. if you followed the above principle you wont need anyone to do it for you.
i use gw basic for some of my programming also perl for another program and vbscript for another and a msdos batch file for another. its great fun and eductional. (and throws a few longshots)

[Makybe Diva]

Seems a very basic system to me. Can't see how it would profit in the long run. Recent form is also more relevant than form in the past.

[topsy99]

an analysis is needed to prove your statement. my view is nothing is guaranteed . and fortune favours the brave. in a review of over 5 weeks 133 horses under the above methods won. while my backing form barriers etc returned 30 only. this capital city races saturday only.
looks okay to me ramped me back to the class performers and and instant return.
I have always wondered about this forum. people seem to expect too much from it. I punt for the fun of it, backing the occasional longshot and improving my computing methods. what others do it for is their business.

i share my thoughts if they are of any use if not then please disregard.

[Moderator 3]

People are allowed to post an outline of how they find some winners at big odds without being required to post their tips in advance or reveal their selection rules.

Thanks.

Moderator.

[topsy99]

was it president garfield who said to alexander bell that the telephone was a great idea but i cant see myself ever using one.

somethings are not compulsory but can be useful.

[Try Try Again]

Hi topsy99,

Great to see someone thinking outside the square and trying a new approach. Congratulations on your recent longshot winners - hope it continues into 2010 and beyond! It's good to see that you are reaping the benefits of your years of "hard work".

I've just started looking at determining the "Field Strength" of Saturday Melbourne City meetings. It is very early days but it did "throw up" Tears I Cry last week - it's too early to put the cold hard cash as yet so I had to just watch and wonder what could have been!

That's the trouble with anything new - it takes time to build the data base.

[topsy99]

I'm not claiming anything with this method other than it sems helpful.
i am thrilled to get a 66/1 winner on a horse i should have backed anyway.
another factor is that most races do not have a listed horse in them and i dont touch those races.
I build the database from the results in mondays thoroughbreds page in the australian. its easy to do doesnt take as long as agonising over a race.


maybe i could help you with the database. you also need to be able to search the data base to match the races today so that the horses are automatically found and a small gwbasic program to check each name and to add up the points for you then you write the points next to the horses name.

take tears i cry for instance in any race where he was thehighest scorer at 22/1 he would have repaid 22 even bets for that win. thornhill recently won in adelaide with 25 points at 16/1 its as good as any system and better than most. its the trainer's job to win the race not mine.
i recall daunting lad and dance the waves in november in brisbane dance the waves had 28 points and daunting ld 29 i think the quinella was over 100$ surprised that any punter would want to go back to the dark.
let us know.

[Mr. Logic]

Interesting thread Topsy. I had a few dollars on Dual Chamber in r8 at Eagle Farm. It won. I couldn't believe $60 was available about it. In a field of 13 it beat the 3rd. horse home by 5 lengths in a Listed race at the same track in June, ran a decent 4th. in another Listed race then went for a spell. I ignored its first run back as not much went right from the widest barrier - 18.

[topsy99]

i backed it last start. it had 3 points in saturdays races and i had a couple ahead also i didnt go down that far to check the price. a good result though wasnt it. i backed captain sonador with 7 points.
alverta had 23 points and was easily ahead in its race.

there is some fun in the method.

[Chrome Prince]

Keep up the good work topsy.
I do recall you mentioning this years ago here and wondered how it was going.
I think it's only natural to post enthusiastically after an idea snags a 66/1 winner.
Where would we be without Partypooper and his Plum Movers ,)

[partypooper]

Chrome, yes credit where its' due, I also remember Topsy posting this idea many years ago, whilst it too far removed from my ideas I still acknowledge that it seemed to have some success.

and you are spot on with the ref to PPM, let's remember that a method that produces 10% winners at an ave. @ 11-1 is a goldmine!

[topsy99]

I guess reality struck me with racing. it is a very good punter who can make money at the game and i guarantee i am not one of those. But I can put $50 in my tab account on first of january and still have it there on 31st of december and that has to be a huge saving on money spent elsewhere. And isnt it about the entertainment and the thrill of scoring a good result.


Does anyone rember Action Pak winning the Kalgoorlie Cup last year 2008 at $55 with 8 points. No form but won 5 starts ago. the 8 points is a clue.

I dont want to be a smartie in putting this stuff up but if it helps anyone else then thats good.
In the case of Action Pak would I have been better off backing the favorite.

[topsy99]

Thanks for the positive feed back its very encouraging.

[place2win]

[QUOTE=topsy99]I guess reality struck me with racing. it is a very good punter who can make money at the game and i guarantee i am not one of those. But I can put $50 in my tab account on first of january and still have it there on 31st of december and that has to be a huge saving on money spent elsewhere. And isnt it about the entertainment and the thrill of scoring a good result.


Well said Topsy99, too many punters follow the sheep inherant of the pitfalls,
as you say "think outside the square" grab a line and follow it, who Knows where it may lead, but you will have an exciting journey along the way.
Well done and good luck for the future(keep chasing the grail).
Regards
shalor http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/icons/icon7.gif

[Try Try Again]

Hi Topsy99,

Do you treat all Group 1 races (and G2, G3 and Listed) the same irrespective of whether they are 2yo, 3yo or older, with regards to the points you apply?

[topsy99]

Yes. group one. is group 1 dont try to put values on that may or may not be of any use. e.g. a south australian group 1 may be considered inferior to melbourne but i recall On a Jeune (placed in SA Derby) winning cranbourne cup at 42/1 also allez wonder placed vrc oaks last year winning listed at kembla grange (3/09 same day as New Edge)at 50/1 then the toorak at 43/1 just accept what it says. trying too hard has often cost me in the past.
best wishes.

[Chrome Prince]

As a matter of incidental fact, did you know that backing all outsiders on Betfair is a profit, I think it's anything over 500/1.
It's a long long time between drinks, but they do lob more often than the odds suggest.
It's actually the reason why laying at $1.01 to $1.04 is profitable ;)

[Twodogs]

Hey Topsy99,

Does a horse need to have won at listed level to qualify to begin with?

Thanks for sharing your idea as it gets the grey matter out of it's solid state!

Cheers
Twodogs

[topsy99]

yes they must place at listed level or won .
Or better e.g. group level. Dont qualify a horse because you had a bit of luck with him. Class will catch them out.

In some cases i qualify a higher staked race as in cases like brisbane there are not that many listed and group races and brisbane is a good racing venue.
in adelaide i give the $41,000 race a listed b level which still counts as 2 for win and 1 for place.
I only qualify Perth races on listed or group level as the prizemoney is greater than Adelaide or Brisbane.
I have found over time that putting higher staked country races in is risky and tend to ease up here. Benefits of what I do is that my betting is relatively restricted and a lot of days there are no bets.
You see some odd results i recall in 2007 Our Bahare whose only claim to fame was placing in the vrc derby in 2003 and rarely won a race he won at 36/1 from barrier 1 as the only listed horse in a race at mornington in 2/2007
then followed up next start and won the stoney creek cup at 12/1 I was lucky enough to be at Hobart races that day. But what this says is that "we often know too much" and make decisions according to our memories of a horse or prejudices or hype. The scoring takes the prejudices out and backing selective races lessens the accummulated losses to enable us to take more risks with longshots. Maybe the trainer knows his horse is the best in the race and when they get a barrier it delivers. A simple test can also tell us the same information.

[TheSchmile]

Sound advice Topsy,

By restricting yourself to the top echelon of horse flesh, at least you guarantee that class is always on your side.

As these class horses get older, they do tend to get unreliable, so if you can stick like glue, chances are you'll snag a winner at tasty odds. Maybe put a ceiling on age at say 7 or 8 years old?

Do you keep stats on the age of your longshot victories Topsy?

I like what you said about taking the emotion out of it. We punters tend to forget that we're backing horses and often hold personal vendettas against individual nags for one bad run when we had a stack on (case in point for me Almohad) or lost a race in a photo.

What I do like about quality horses is that they do tend to be reliable, now as for jockeys...........

Two shoes

[topsy99]

every saturday there is a couple of long priced winners and occasionally on sundays. although i am not a lover of sunday racing due to short odds.
a factor i use is to use the year of qualifying as a divider.
e.g. as per our bahare qualifying in 2003 and backing him in 2007 which is almost 4 years 11/03 to 02/07 tells you that it has not performed in listed class for several years and for this reason you will need longer odds about it.
eg. you wouldnt take 3/1 about a horse like that. and there are many of them. take a horse like fraaclase qualified in 2005 and always looks a chance but rarely wins. 4 years since listed qualiying so you wouldnt take short odds about fraaclase in fact backing it with counterfeit money may be adventurous. I would want 20/1 about fraaclase but you wouldnt get it but the 4 odd years of no placings in good races tells you something and maybe it tells you to leave it alone. However on the plus side I used to be incredulous about Tora Tora Tora in Adelaide and talk about flogging a dead horse but he has repaid me handsomely lately (he qualified in 4/06) since he moved to country nsw and won some cups. most of them have their day I even backed General Albert in Perth 2 months ago at 33/1 couldnt do anything in melbourne.
Take Tarzi (WA Champ) has 3 point 3/05-9/07 in Victoria (30 months) now has 49 points due to becoming a top performer in Perth. You cant carry your prejudices can you. Hope this is helpful Use the year of qualifying as an indicator.
8 Proart (5) 59.0 5yo ch h (A Durrant at Lark Hill) P Hall
"proart(good)(1400)(ascot)21-11-09)8"
tw 59.0, mb 0 wc 56.0, ww 56.0 Fred Factor: 2.331

Information is pulled out automatically on a Perl programme that I use on cyberhorse zip files hope it helps you.

[Twodogs]

Thanks Topsy99,

Much appreciate your explanations and examples as it helps to look at them to see what your talking about.

Regards
Twodogs

[topsy99]

"rabbuka(g",7
"spinney(g",33
"lyncean a",4
"rockwood(",15
"parfumier",1
"rags to r",31
"our lukas",5
"hairy(goo",7
"love and ",21
"adnocon(g",2

for those interested these are the villiers numbers this is not designed to be a tipping list the judgement is for the interested the miscellaneous g and brackets are rough programming

[Twodogs]

Thanks Topsy99

Have done the race now myself and have pretty much what you have except for Rags to Riches as the data base I am using doesn't go back to the start of his career.

Cheers
Twodogs

[topsy99]

also not the horse it was. was placed in this race last year though.

[Twodogs]

And Spinney got up for third for a lovely div of $5.20 best tote.

Well done Topsy99

Maybe it would be better to only consider the last say 4 years of the horses career?

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

Doomben race 6 no 9 Plain Magic was the only horse I could see that qualified as a black type in the race and it won at $10 top fluc

Twodogs

[topsy99]

i use the years as a divider. i divide the total by the last year that the horse qualified. if it is in the last year then 1.
had a couple of good divs like any system these can be subjective
scored with sanderson and luckily spinney featured. i also backed jordan valley for place only. i back spinney on its hawkesbury cup win and last start lost my money but it has a good record and trainer.
i suppose you checked mustard with 35 points. but couldnt make myself back a 12 year old. kicked myself last time it won as well.
poor odds on some seesawing and chekvadatze (hard to spell)
but good horses and very convincing.
I hope you see the principle of what i do. cuts the action a bit but maybe concentrates the money particularly if you are a good judge.
a good one got up in hobart today dream pedlar at 18/1 7 point and placed int he hobart cup a couple of starts back i have tidied up that program and can put up some on the blog if any one is interested. it will either make things better or make things worse. but one of my biggest failures has been trying too hard to back a winner. e.g. touching horses when i am looking for a bit rather than being patient.

[Twodogs]

Evening Topsy,

Am very interested in anything that will help the grey matter whether that be examples with points or anything else you can add as food for thought as it is all very much appreciated.

Twodogs

[Twodogs]

i suppose you checked mustard with 35 points. but couldnt make myself back a 12 year old. kicked myself last time it won as well.
.


Yes I did and I watched the race in amazement!! Goes against what we are told is smart!! Backing old horses!

Twodogs

[Twodogs]

in hobart today dream pedlar at 18/1 7 point .

In this race Topsy Conquering had scored more points, what made you look at Dream Pedlar?

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

I hope you see the principle of what i do. cuts the action a bit but maybe concentrates the money particularly if you are a good judge.
.

Yes Topsy

Your looking for the Class horses of the race and only those that have qualified as black type horses.

Cheers
Twodogs

[topsy99]

re dream pedlar. I look for longshots. here is my calculation.
both horses qualified in the last year.

points divided by 10 multiplied by price

conquering 29/10*2.6 = 7.54
dream pedlar 7/10*18 = 12.6
the value was in dream pedlar.

conquering at $2.60 is of no use to punters like me.
dream pedlar at 18/1 is challenging.

see where the judgement comes in and possibly the risk and greed
I am wrong as often.
The calculation favors horses greater than 10/1

[Twodogs]

Thanks Topsy for the explanation!!

Makes sense what you say and the bigger divs make up for the lower strike rate I am sure.

Do you find the approach performs better in black type races or in lower class?

Twodogs

[topsy99]

in black type there is more competition but higher prices.
and also when the good ones are firing the odds arent that great for the winners. patience is important over the recent times i recall some big winners e.g. douro valley won a group 1 with 27 points and paying $38. no form but reasonably fresh. maldivian won the cox plate 35 points.
course there are disappointments when they do nothing but i find that even when i think the form is good and have high expectations they let you down.
so in general over a long period of time e.g. 20 years i havent found one system more superior to others in strike rates except that black type horses tend to get up when the barrier is right at good odds. i recall mr orient winning two in a row in brisbane recently at good odds was placed at list level in 3/08 18/1/ listed horse from barrier was was good then won next start at double figures from wide barrier.
I find Adelaide and Perth hard to win at form seems to taper off quickly e.g. horses are often not good for more than one year and then reduced to the odd win. this is why i look for good odds i also think trainers are targeting a decent price. Getting repeat winners in hobart in recent times is scarce as hens teeth.I did back Danleigh 59 points when he won the manikato stakes group 1 from barrier 1. Its a hard game and I find mid-week racing to be fraught with danger and virtually am inactive these days during the week although i do the print out. monday and tuesday rarely returns a winner.
dont forget the test. points/10*price/year often this calculation will put the value down fairly low unless the odds are good or or the listed points are good.

[jackact]

I feel that topsy99's theories make a lot of sense. As an alternative to my own data base, I see that RacingandSports have a tab in their home page Horse Records Search for Black Type performances by calendar year. If you know your Group/Listed races schedule, this would seem to easily convert to close to what topsy99 draws on. Anyone know of a better way of identifying Group/Listed performances by horse?
Cheers,
Jackact

[jackact]

I need help here, topsy99!
I have calculated Summer Cup ratings based on my understanding of your rules, and using Colin Tidy's Betchoice fixed prices. Am I close to your figures??
Rockwood 5
Music Review 0.9
Brave Lancer 9.2
Zazabeau 0.7
Scouting Wide 0.8
Solid Billing 6
Bright Mind 0.8
Dane Fontaine 2.6
Which would make Brave Lancer the best value, followed by Solid Billing then Rockwood.

[jackact]

Not a bad result if backed the top three value horses - 1st ($12 win) and 3rd.

[topsy99]

have had weekend with grandchildren and watched most races.
good results. your numbers are pretty good on the summer cup.
wasnt Jim Cassidy a treat on Solid Billing. I missed him recently apparently had a gardening accident.

One of the risks and rules of our system is not to cherry pick. I am as wary of Brave Lancer as any of you. as matter of fact had a weekend at Thredbo with Chairman of Wyong jockey club in 2005 who was spruiking it in the geelong cup that year. got knocked on the line by On a jeune. But it has changed trainers I think was J McNair (Wyong trainer) back in those days. back to the figures.
New Spice was a good result in Ascot. Also and not sure if any betting on this - Vosne Romanee won the group 1 in Ellerslie yesterday with 22 points at 33/1 . I guess the theory proves we dont know when they will perform but somebody does and they are more entitled than we are.
The odds are good. with New Spice at 20/1/ with 13 points was worth a lash.
Doing the numbers is an identifiable value that i have found I cant define by doing barriers, weights, margins, form and cuts the random betting action. By including all of the variables and possibilities sends me silly. maybe not many big results each saturday but at least a few winners and potential for some odds.
Again I would like to commend Jim Cassidy on his ride yesterday I recall him winning last years Doncaster and Derby by perfectly judged rides . its good to seem him back.
Good luck will keep an eye on this page in future and confirm my figures to you. Particulary the higher ones.

[topsy99]

A week ago someone asked if performs better in Black Type than ordinary.

No. all races are considered as far as looking for a bet.
regards

[jackact]

Thanks, topsy99, its nice to know my figures aren't way out.
I agree with your high opinion of J Cassidy. A few years ago, friends of mine raced a horse (out of Canberra) which used to throw its head about in races, clearly affecting its performance. Jim rode it three times in midweek races, for a win. What he did, though, was to teach the horse to race better. Later it won and was placed at Saturday meetings (other jockeys), and the owners were sure it was Jim's guidance that improved the animal's racing manners.
Good punting,
Jackact

[jackact]

Here are my figures for the Perth Cup, using Betchoice fixed odds as at Thursday midday. (First figure is points, second figure is points/10*price to arrive at Rating):
Newport 10.66, 10.6
Largo Lad 11, 13.2
Lords Ransom 8.66, 2.6
Star Encounter 9.5, 17.1
Gondorff 7, 4.1
Right Fong 2, 1.6
Friars Touch 0.33, 2.7
Geyser Peak 1, 4.1
Hadabeclorka 6.5, 39.7
Lambton Castle 2, 12.2
Ma Chienne 5.5, 4.4
Markus Maximus 11, 14.3
New Spice 4, 7.6
Sentenza 1, 5.1
Almohad 1, 1.5
Truckin Tobie 0.5, 3
Esroh 3, 30.3
Neige 1, 20.1The ratings for the emergencies are probably inflated by the risk that they will not get a start, so the Rating should be re calculated on the final field. However, on what we have, Hadabeclorka is top value, followed by Esroh, then Neige, then Markus Maximus and Largo Lad. Betting strategies on final field?? Back the top three Raters for a win and place? Combine in duets?

Jackact

[topsy99]

my figs. newport 22 largo lad 11 lords ransom 12 star encounter gondorff 8 right fong 3 friars touch 3 geyser peak 2 hadabeclorka 4 lambton castle 3 ma chienne 5 markus maximus 12 new spice 15 sentenza 2 almohad 2 truckin tobie 1 esroh 3 neige 1.


word of caution . dont let your ratings be overtaken by wild odds. when rating with prices a 100/1 shot has an unreal influence on your rating and i tend to work from the best/highest listed rating down. in this case newport, lords ransom new spice star encounter gondorff

i note that you have lambton castle has 12 rating i cant see that.
points divided by 10 * price divided by year since last performed in a listed race. at 10/1 this gives lambton castle rating of 2 he would need to be 60/1 for 12 (which could be right) but judgement is required and would suggest a saver bet rather than being very bold but who knows.


be brave but follow the numbers.

[topsy99]

each weekend i spend at my holiday house on the huon river in tasmania and watch the races and punt all saturday afternoon. after the races are over i would review what had happed during the day and constantly this method delivered the results and all my other ancilliary bets (my opinion of who would win on barriers weights etc) would fritter away my money. my eagerness to punt slewed my punting to a wasteful experience.

in the calculation. it is designed not to over bet on long prices.
e.g. a 1 pointer could be 10/1 and a current year performer to be a $1 bet. this could even be would back by increasing the division by 10. but you could be lucky and it comes off which it will eventually.
In the above case a two year since listed placing would need to be 20/1 to be a $1 (unit) bet.
But as i said my wasteful experiences proved that i was no judge at picking winners no matter how good they looked . good luck for tomorrow.

[jackact]

Thanks heaps for your advice, tops99. Yes, I had Lambton Castle on 2 points, which times the odds/10 I got to 12.2 - he is $61& with Betchoice.
I can see how long shots can corrupt the pattern of final ratings. At 61, Hadabeclorka is a huge risk as he has not won beyond 1400m. Still, he seems to be going OK now they are trying him over longer (finally, at 8YO). Esroh would not seem to up to this field, hence the 100/1 and your warning!
Thanks again for your help.
Jackact

[topsy99]

matter of interest I just arrived at other house and had two horses brilliantes and dahara prize in race 5 at ipswich. sometimes my points wont co-incide with the exact listed list that you might get from somewhere else.

recall that i said i credited some races of higher prizemoney with a listed B classification due to the low number of listed races in certain areas e.g. brisbane and adelaide I credit the $41,000 race in Adelaide as a listed b which gives two points for winning and 1 for placing.

Dahara Prize was 3rd to Sienna's Pride in a $100,000 race in Townsville two year old in June and I put it in. Paid $14.00 today There is some worth in noting the higher prizemoney races as being sought after results for trainers.
The simplicity of throwing it into a database throws it up on days like this.

In the case of some of the perth cup horses Lambton Castle was showing good form about a year ago and hastnt delivered in recent times and Hadebeclorka is similar. I always throw a saver on the renegade ratings.

[jackact]

Nice win at Townsville, topsy99!
A database like the one you describe will always be more complete than using RacingandSports Group/Listed summaries. The R&S info seems to go back to only 2007, so that leaves a big hole. And I don't add in higher prizemoney non-black type races, as you do. So our figures will not match - yours will be more accurate. I really only tried using the R&S material to see how it went as an approximation of your process.
I will stick to numbers 2,10,14 in the Perth Cup out of interest - 10 for a place.
Here's hoping.
Jackact

[topsy99]

ref data base. i use gwbasic an old programming language used to come out with msdos. rarely used these days but is useful. i save the results from mondays australian and search my points with a small self adding program by putting in the name and it auto adds up the points.


but back to the perth cup.
doing traditional judgment which failed me but the weights but not the barriers favour some. on barriers and weights and points.
largo lad barrier 19 11 points weight ok lords ransom 12 points barrier (2) and down 3.5 kgs. gondorff barrier 6 8 points and down massive 5.5kgs (my pick) hadebeclorka 4 points down 6kgs barrier 20. new spice 15 points barrier 4 down 3 kgs.
so with that lords ransom gondorff (looks real good) 8 points new spice 15 points. (but have been wrong before)

good luck slight mention for star encounter 14 points but not sure of her class in this race.

[topsy99]

how close was that. $12 odd for a place was nearly a 50/1 shot.
loves it wet.
Court and royal ida were top numbers.

[topsy99]

generally points went well. hard to catch was 35 points just missed.
perth cup was a good result but no value in it.
royal ida was good result. ridden by a genius.
court's price lost something when the favorite scratched at the barrier.
Ma Ma Machine had five points ascot , spinney usual honest race 30 points 3rd, hairy 7 points almohad was brilliant ride and was down 3kgs on winning form.

all in all some strikes and a bit of bad luck. thought i was home on airways in the last at flemington only to be beaten by a bolter.



havent scored todays yet.

[Twodogs]

Hello Topsy,

Thanks for your posts as it helps confirm points scored etc and also what your thoughts were. It isn't a press the button and find a selection method but does make you think. If only there was a way to be more often correct in the thinking?

Happy New Year
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

Evening Topsy,

Do you generally work with a minimum number of points before you get too interested in a horse?

Black type races can have many top chances and even looking for value as per your calculation can still leave it a tough race do you have a general rule of thumb you work with?

Recent dist ability could eliminate some as would historic dist ability along with its liking for the going. Odd day back ups going by a reference I saw by you to fitness patterns (Blakemore)

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

Another good result at Sandown today Topsy!

See attachment

Cheers
Twodogs

[topsy99]

i've just been to northwest tasmania for a few days camping so missed sandown. you wouldnt believe i backed rathshallagh last start. got beaten by 18 lengths but was place in queensland derby group 1 2008 and 13 points was the score. (noticed G Boss rode it) the question regarding minimum number of points ref; perth cup. i favour the top points scores.
Ref doing some work on the race. I do it for the interest . I cant make selections from the paper as it is boring as there is no end of races .
The point systems put some personality into the selections and i like the idea of trainers targeting wins. e.g. rathshallagh I am sure would not have gone without some backing. Rathsahallagh also placed at group 2 level at Trentham. Methods like this limit my activities to listed horses so stops the go, go, go danger of racing.
I hope you had something on rathshallagh.

[topsy99]

in the case of rathshallagh it is a mistake to try to pick the eyes out of the races. a winner at 37/1 pays for a lot of sins and by trying to exact your selections might cause short odds and also miss a lot of winners.

That's experience talking.

A group 1 placegetter at 37/1 is a bit inviting the fact that its form was poor is a test of faith. we have been discussing this test of faith. most of us punters cant go a few races wthout a winner and that is our downfall.

[Twodogs]

i've just been to northwest tasmania for a few days camping so missed sandown. you wouldnt believe i backed rathshallagh last start. got beaten by 18 lengths but was place in queensland derby group 1 2008 and 13 points was the score. (noticed G Boss rode it) the question regarding minimum number of points ref; perth cup. i favour the top points scores.
Ref doing some work on the race. I do it for the interest . I cant make selections from the paper as it is boring as there is no end of races .
The point systems put some personality into the selections and i like the idea of trainers targeting wins. e.g. rathshallagh I am sure would not have gone without some backing. Rathsahallagh also placed at group 2 level at Trentham. Methods like this limit my activities to listed horses so stops the go, go, go danger of racing.
I hope you had something on rathshallagh. No unfortunately not. Was looking at the races after the event! Laurie many black type races have quite a few high pointers do you generally leave these alone?

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

in the case of rathshallagh it is a mistake to try to pick the eyes out of the races. a winner at 37/1 pays for a lot of sins and by trying to exact your selections might cause short odds and also miss a lot of winners.

That's experience talking.

A group 1 placegetter at 37/1 is a bit inviting the fact that its form was poor is a test of faith. we have been discussing this test of faith. most of us punters cant go a few races wthout a winner and that is our downfall.

You have nailed it there Laurie a group 1 placegetter is better than a listed placegetter.

Staking properly should take care of runs of losers but I guess it is a little bit of an unknown what sort of strikerate can be achieved until you have had a go live.

Regards
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

Laurie we can do the points once we have the form but what prices do you use to work out your value bets? In the Sandown race on Wednesday I used the 5 mins to go prices off the tote but it is a little close for comfort if you haven't done some work before then.

Cheers
Twodogs

[jackact]

Well done again, topsy99. Interestingly, I did back Rathshallagh, but based on work I am doing on Unitab rate combinations on last races at metrop meetings (I reckon last races are the hardest on each program usually, and therefore the best for value).
It is always good to get your thoughts.
Jackact

[topsy99]

one bet friday. spontaneous moonee valley last race
m rodd place group 1 in new zealand trained by m moroney. backed in late. i backed at 10/1 3 mins to go paid $6.40

did anyone get electric general in ascot yesterday. 6 points (most in race) paid $33.

it is a test of faith. but risking a comment on that race - 6 horse race ma ma machine coming off a listed win a week before at odds on.

See what you are up against.? a very unpredictable industry and punters are usually at the short end.
Also got come on cugat yesterday in sydney at $22 I ignored brave lancer and i backed come on cugat last start. Never got anything in gold coast though.

[Twodogs]

one bet friday. spontaneous moonee valley last race
m rodd place group 1 in new zealand trained by m moroney. backed in late. i backed at 10/1 3 mins to go paid $6.40


I missed that one Laurie as my database didn't have the NZ run.

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

did anyone get electric general in ascot yesterday. 6 points (most in race) paid $33.

it is a test of faith. but risking a comment on that race - 6 horse race ma ma machine coming off a listed win a week before at odds on.

See what you are up against.? a very unpredictable industry and punters are usually at the short end.

Actually I scored it with 11 points but I didn't look to closely at the race until after the event. Good Score Laurie!

Your right about following form as it can defy logic! Last winner and short and best it can do is run 4th.

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

The short end of market can really hurt when you get a run of losses. You can do the form get everything right in your opinion only to see the horse not come out of the barriers, weight in light, not get the runs it needs to get out and the excuses go on. Of course you can be wrong also with your wise opinion so it can add up to plenty of frustration at prices that don't allow longer run of outs.

I would certainly wouldn't mind back double figure odds even if it takes three selections to get it.

Laurie have you bet your selections in the exotics?

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

Laurie have you bet your selections in the exotics?

Cheers
Twodogs

Topsy99 is your normal approach to just back one horse in a race or would you back a few?

I thank you for post this approach as it has renewed my interest in research and in an area price wise that I didn't generally expect to find winners.

Cheers
Twodogs

[jackact]

Here are my figures for the Canterbury Classic on 14th January. (Using R&Sports data only, and Betchoice early market.)
Hadaaf 12.8
Kennys World 7.0
Bank Robber 6.3
News Alert 5.3
Pins on Parade 3.2
I'll be backing Kennys World and News Alert for a place.
Cheers,
Jackact

[Twodogs]

I used IAS for my early prices and attached is what I came up with. Hard to separate numbers 2,4 and 5

Good Luck
Twodogs

[topsy99]

no i dont back exotics.
also on a sychological point of view i found that the bigger the bet the more you gravitated to the favorite. e.g. remember don scotts theory where he used to say that you bet every horse as if its favorite to ensure you got value of longshots.

generally you dont go long without a long priced listed horse winning a race. the trick is to be on them.
My data base will be slightly different to those working strictly off listed/group results. I mentioned this a few weeks ago where i qualify higher prizemoney races to ensure a reasonable number of horses in each state. queensland doesnt have as many listed races as other states and i qualify the $50,000 race if it is the highest for the day and there are less $ races.
the merit of this can be seen on sunday where A Grade won the last at Warrnambool qualified at Doomben in 2/08. This satisfies the desperate desire to have a bet particularly when 16/1 was offered.
I must admit I have no great expectation from racing but its nice to back a winner without getting in too deep. this is why the longer prices satisfy the urge to have a bet with a reasonable result.
Ref tonight for Bank Robber will be very hard to beat but not much value for punters like me.
My approach can be quite dumb as I went into the TAB at Smithton last week to check the price on With Decorum when it was $3.80 I didnt back anything but that wasn't bright as after it won $3.80 looked pretty good.

[jackact]

Nice result, Twodogs.

[Twodogs]

Here are my figures for the Canterbury Classic on 14th January. (Using R&Sports data only, and Betchoice early market.)
Hadaaf 12.8
Kennys World 7.0
Bank Robber 6.3
News Alert 5.3
Pins on Parade 3.2
I'll be backing Kennys World and News Alert for a place.
Cheers,
Jackact

You did well yourself Jackact!!!

[Twodogs]

Nice result, Twodogs.

Hey Jackact

I have been a form person most of my punting life so I did the points and then looked at the contenders.

Bank Robber hasn't won below 1150m and that was a maiden!

Which left me with 2,4 and 5. Pins on Parade was scratched so down to 2 and 5. News Alert ran a great race first up and was today back to a better weight whereas Kenny's World had run well at Canterbury before at 1100m but not as well as News Alert.

News Alert paid $6 Top Fluc and Kenny's World was $10 Top Fluc. It would seem prices up to double figures would be best top fluc otherwise get on at best tote.

As Topsy has said though too many igredients and I will over cook the approach so I remain with training wheels on.

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

no i dont back exotics.
.

Okay Topsy,

Just that I had noticed some good wins among the black type contenders where all placegetters had gained points but that would also mean long runs of outs chasing the big one ( if it came before your bank dried up)

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

Thanks for your words of wisdom Topsy!

I think our databases will always be a little different but I have taken on board what you have said about the better races other than black type.

Bank Robber to me was a false fav so the price seemed silly ( My opinion though) and the race looked ripe for some value and I do like your approach from the point of view of the odds you can get for a winner.

Regards
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

Good Morning Topsy,

Didn't seem to be much on offer on the weekend how did you get on? Interested in your thoughts as maybe I missed something that I could go back to and have another look at and maybe learn something.

Cheers
Twodogs