Ratchet level stakes.

[Star]

I have been following this site for a number of years and am impressed with the knowledge and effort the majority of the stayers put in.

I often from time to time dabble with system betting, mainly to fill in time, hopefully not do too much damage and try to hang in their for as long as possible until fate takes over and then deals me out of the game.

I have ( invented a little system, that I may have pulled out of somehere ) been playing with a some ideas that appear to be holding up. A twenty dollar bank started in early November prior to the cup is now about the $80 mark I have only been betting $1 a win and have noticed the large number of high priced placings so I decided to bet each way for the last 30 bets, so far the I am about $10 in front on the place and about $50 for the win side.

I appear to be on a high wave as their have been a recent 25/1 winer, 14/1 and numerous ones around the $9 mark. lots of seconds and thirds priced from tens to twenty fives. I am expecting the crash to come soon and dump me on the beach with a bloodied nose and an empty wallet.

I was wondering what you good folk think about the ratchet system where you bet level stakes but move up as a percentage of your bank but do not retreat back down again. say you have factored in a run of outs of 35 to clear you out has this formulae any merit or will the enevitable happen.

Mind you, while i am playing this I am in front because I am not betting anywhere else like exotics or trebles that I would normally do on a week end spending $20 to $30 a week with very few returns lately.

Interested in your thoughts as to how you would stake based on what i have given you.

Pete

[goty0405]

I think the rachet staking plan is quite good. I generally use a percentage staking plan and adding a raceht to it can improve returns, especially as the system goes along.

Without know more indepth stats (like min, max, average, mode, mean prices ...and the number of selections and winner, etc etc) I would say that you cant go too wrong with a simple percentage system with a rachet. If it fails then the system was poor and not the staking. Hoever with those odds I would look at a smaller percentage (Eg 0.5 to 1% of your bankroll) simply because at those prices you can have a large run of outs and ruin it very quickly.

[Star]

I think the rachet staking plan is quite good. I generally use a percentage staking plan and adding a raceht to it can improve returns, especially as the system goes along.

Without know more indepth stats (like min, max, average, mode, mean prices ...and the number of selections and winner, etc etc) I would say that you cant go too wrong with a simple percentage system with a rachet. If it fails then the system was poor and not the staking. Hoever with those odds I would look at a smaller percentage (Eg 0.5 to 1% of your bankroll) simply because at those prices you can have a large run of outs and ruin it very quickly.---------------------
Thanks for the reply, especially the last sentence. At this moment, my greatest run of outs since November is 8 on the win. The place part has only about 38 bets with a maximum out of place 3 runs. I was concerned how quickly I should move up the ratchet on a progressive basis, but I think you may have given me the confidence to hold the line and at least increase the possible run of outs.

At the moment I have started with $1 Ew and am now at $2 EW I will stay at $2 EW until I get to 2% of bank and then reduce to 1 1/2 % which is $3 in a $200 bank. AT present it is EW bets but when the percentages get out of sync it will be the % for a win and % for a place as they are both run as a separate system with a separate bank so I can see what my ROI is etc.

If I blow it then I will still be in front as I hopefully will not be betting out of my pocket .

Thanks for the reply as it appears I may be living dangerously, but because the stakes are small at the moment I will hang on for the ride and adjust the bets if it keeps producing which based on previous systems of mine is unlikely.

They all promise a lot but deliver very little when the chips are down.

Thanks.

[Bhagwan]

Here is another approach that maybe worth looking so as to keep ones sanity & remove the feeling of total risk.

RULES

Bet .5% of bank split 50/50 win & place.

Adjust bet up or down at the beginning of each new day by using .5% of bank for that day.

This gives us 200 shots.
Not that one would hit 200 outs

Its done to make the bets more even & less dramatic, with it's ups & downs, compared to say betting say 5% of bank up & down for each race.

If we hit a real horror run , the damage is contained to live out another horror run or more.

The ratchet approach can be very powerful if things go all our way.
It works perfectly if one knows what is going to happen in the future.
If one is concerned what may happen in the future , the .5% daily up & down approach, is a strong alternative.

Sorry, I have to ask...
Can you say what the system entails?

[Star]

Thanks for the reply Bhagwan.

I understand the bet 0.5% of bank to give us a safety factor of 200 bets should and when the horrow run of outs occur.

I already adjust the bets at the beginning of the day as I do not have the time to sit in front of a computer all day for a $2 bet.

Now to answer the question I knew was coming from some one. What the system entails? At this stage I am not going to put its entrails on show in a public forum for when some see the rules it may be considered spam and some may suggest that I am a dreamer or worse a ***********

But I think it is only fair to give some small insight into what is involved because if somebody is prepared to give me some help then I believe it should not be all one way. The system is based on Racing and Sports information. it is there for all to see. You just have to select what you want to put in and take out.

I have been playing around with that site for years, trying various aspects and discarding others. Never really keeping good records but moving on when bored or when I get the feeling to move on to another angle. I have tried the Neurals, not that I really understood them, Don Scott Work sheet, the Stats etc.

Any angle seems to work for awhile, then the inevitable. I believe nothing brings on one's demise faster than putting forward an idea in public that appears to be working along ok in private. But if it does that, it probably means that the idea was flawed anyway.

STAR

[SteveMac]

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=11818&page=7&pp=10

Found the above while still perfecting my system to sqeeze as much out of it as possible.

Currently what I do is:
For 25% strike rate I should expect about a 24 expected run of outs and have a pretty consistant 30% profit rating on straight out system betting and average of 4 bets per day.

What I do is to bet 0.025 (2.5%) of pot
I then keep betting that same amount until a win
After win recalculate betting amount

So for $1000 pot
Next bet will be $25
Keep betting $25 until a win
Recalculate bet amount according to new pot value

Would suggest a $3000 starting pot to get the ball rolling a little faster.

[Star]

Thanks to Stevemac for posting that link. It appears most of my queries have been answered in that. I see that Bhagwan has even weighed in and his thoughts have helped me rethink my stratergy regarding the Ratchet System.

Of course this site would not be the same without the balancing by that Prophet of Doom " CRASH ".

Because I have been adjusting my bet rules , this is the latest results from my figures based on the latest alteration. There have been 27 bets so far, not 100, not 1000 not 10,000. So that has to be taken into account. But the slight changes I have made still bring about the same results although the price dividend seems to have increased which may just be luck or its place in the cycle which at the moment appears to be on a high wave as I said in my original post.

I like Bhagwan's advice of providing at least 3.5 times the ( expected losing run ) based on the Risk of Ruin idea I think.

Here is my current results based on only 27 bets.

R.O.I. 109%

SR 18.5%

5 winners out of 27 bets

Return dividends.

7.30, 4.40, 14.00, 24.00, 14.70.

Runs of outs.

1x8
1x6
1x5
1x2
1x1

At present I am going to stick to $1 win until I see where this takes me.

Based on these figures, what does the statistics show other than interesting until the crash comes.


FOR YOUR INFORMATION.

To hurry the demise of this system I will put up all the bets for today Friday 1st January. A public declarations usually brings the rewards of a public flogging.

I will post when I have checked the scratchings and lets see what happens, probably disaster.

STAR

[Star]

STAR'S ----- HASTENED DEMISE SYSTEM -----

As I mentioned in previous post. As the maximum run of outs in my Demise System is 8 at present I think it is only fair to at least list my next 10 bets in advance to see if the trend continues or I am destined to a life of poverty.

All bets are $1 EW to cover my Win and Place system.

Todays bets are;

Flemington Race 5 No 13 Family Bliss. : Sportsbet early market price. $41.00

Randwick Race 6 No 2 Rabbuka "" "" $ 4.40

Ascot Race 8 No 13 Ma Chienne " " $ 7.50


Let the games begin: And see who can crack the Devinci Code:

STAR

[Stix]

Good Luck Star. Be good to see you beat the posting curse...!

[Star]

RESULTS STAR"S HASTENED DEMISE SYSTEM

1St JAN $1 EW Flemington R5 - 13 Family Bliss Unplaced.
Randwick R6 - Rabbuka Unplaced.
Ascot R8 - Ma Chienne 2nd paid $3.20 place


Win bets loss 3x1 $3
Place bets 3x1 $3 return $3.20.

Win part lost $3
Place part won 0.20c

Overall for day loss of $2.80.

Not bankrupt yet.

[Star]

STAR'S ---- HASTENED DEMISE SYSTEM -----

So far:

Win run of outs: 5 --------SR 17%
Place run of outs: Nil -----SR 40%

Here is the next series of the ten bets I said I would put up.

Today: 2nd January 2010

Rosehill R2 ------ No 3 Pin Wheel

Morphetville R5 ----- No 11 Sacre Nazaire

Geelong R6 -------No10 Streetfire.

Kembla Grange R8 ----No11 Kirribilli

Mooney Valley R1 ---- No 7 Miss Rubinstein

Pinjarra R7 -----------No 11 Master Sin

[Star]

Stars' ----Hastened Demise System- Results. 2nd January 2010

Rosehill R2 Pin Wheel --Won $1.70 win -- $1.20 Place
Morphetville R5-- Sacre Nagaire --2nd -- $4.10 Place
Geelong R5-----Streetfire--Unplaced
Kembla Grange R8--Kirribilli ---Unplaced
Mooney Valley R1 --Miss Rubestein ---Unplaced
Pinjarra R7 ---Master Sin -- Unplaced.

Win bets: == 6x1 $6.00 Return $1.70 --Lost on win bets. --$4.30 Neg

Place bets==6x1 $6.00. Return ==$5.30 Lost on place bets.==$0.70 neg.

Total loss for day ----$5.00

Current run of win outs is now --4

Current run of place outs is now --4

------------------------------------
Overall, the system is basically performing as expected. Those two seconds , one yesterday and one today, are what gives the balance a kick if they get up.

Yesterdays 2nd Ma Chienne in Perth Cup paid $3.20 place
Today's 2nd Sacre Nagaire paid $4.10

So, overall it looks like I will expect to have a run of outs and hope that one of the higher priced seconds can do one better.

At this stage both win and place sections are in profit, so I will keep playing it for a bit longer.

I normally have a $20 multi every Saturday, so in one way even though I lost $5 I can kid myself that I am actually $15 better off.

STAR