Longshot method that has some merit have a play around

[ubetido]

Hi all

Haven't been involved in the forum for a while happy new year to you all.

Heres something i have been playing with for a while it has made level stakes profit.

Run of outs can be long but the good odds do help. recently has had a longish run of outs however Rockhampton race 1 19/1/10 struck a $76 winner. General winners are between $10 and $25 with the odd greater odds.

Ok what are the rules:
Barrier one after scratchings
between $10 and $40
any track
No heavy tracks

Two minutes before the jump its a bet if between these odds. The above example showed $39 before the jump so it was a bet and then jumped. This can go the other way of course but generally they blow.

This im sure can be refined to some tracks better than others or staking plan etc but overall still wins. dont forget this is using unitab odds so other tabs or betfair could be better.

As i said with some of you folk databases etc you can improve it for yourselves.

cheers
ubetido

[ubetido]

Hi all

Recent results
18th Jan Stawell R1 number 1 won paid $9.40 came in from $11
19th Jan Rockhampton R1 number 6 won paid $76.30 out from $39
20th Jan Ipswich R6 number 6 won paid $14.30
21st no wins in that price range
22nd no wins in that price range

Cheers
Ubetido

[Michal]

Hi ,

With all due respect to your tests, every time I see someone branding longshots around , the vital piece of info that is alsways missing is the total number of selections that was taken in order to achive those collects.

I am in no way beliteling your efforts, I know how frustrating longshots are first hand, its just my pet peeve that I see the prices thrown around like they come up every second race when infact there are possibilities for 100 runs of out or longer. Which is something that can decimate the constitution of even the most disciplined player.

If you realy want to paint a complete picture , post the losing bets as well. I would say that with the prices collected over the days you show , you would be well infront in the sample !

I wish you well and all the persistance required.

Kind regards,

Michal

[ubetido]

Hi Michal

Thanks for your reply and yes i agree with you that figures can be twisted or sampled in a way that makes look ok.

As you can appreciate there are many races where there are no bets either but yes long runs of outs of 50 or more is not uncommon.

I applied the same principles to barriers 2 and 3 whilst the last few days there have been a number of longshot winners from these two barriers long term the results were not as good.

Might be forum jinx..lol

As i said it has been a play around but barrier 1 did show a profit level stakes overall.

To perhaps put things i perspective
Barrier 1 had a strike rate of 7.4% average return was $17.
Barrier 2 was a 4.3% strike rate with a average $19 return
Barrier 3 was a 4% strike rate with an average of $18 return
In the price ranges i indicated
All other price ranges were losers both shorter price and longer priced at two minutes to the jump.

Would i be silly enough to think that it could be this simple of course not but for a bit of fun it could be worse for a no brainer long shot selection process.


Cheers
Ubetido

[xanadu]

Hi Michal

Thanks for your reply and yes i agree with you that figures can be twisted or sampled in a way that makes look ok.

As you can appreciate there are many races where there are no bets either but yes long runs of outs of 50 or more is not uncommon.

I applied the same principles to barriers 2 and 3 whilst the last few days there have been a number of longshot winners from these two barriers long term the results were not as good.

Might be forum jinx..lol

As i said it has been a play around but barrier 1 did show a profit level stakes overall.

To perhaps put things i perspective
Barrier 1 had a strike rate of 7.4% average return was $17.
Barrier 2 was a 4.3% strike rate with a average $19 return
Barrier 3 was a 4% strike rate with an average of $18 return
In the price ranges i indicated
All other price ranges were losers both shorter price and longer priced at two minutes to the jump.

Would i be silly enough to think that it could be this simple of course not but for a bit of fun it could be worse for a no brainer long shot selection process.


Cheers
Ubetido
G'day ubetido,
Realistically which punter can withstand a losing run of 50......?
Most would have driven to The Gap by then mate!
Cheers.

[ubetido]

Hi there

Yes i agree if a person is trying to make a living from the punt or is a part time professional.

At the type of odds we are talking about it doesnt take much to square the ledger.

Anyway i really don't want to be carved up over this it was my observation over quite a considerable period of time.

Just take note even in trifectas and quads that this barrier bobs up at nice odds either win or placings

Cheers
ubetido

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for sharing your findings Ubetido.

Just out of interest , how did you come about the idea of the 2min mark.

It looks as though you have put in a lot of research time into this observation.

Well done.

[Michal]

Hi ubetido,

Every time you post something on long shot it will generated discussion. I hope that you dont feel carved up as that was not my intention at all. When I was punting long shots I regularly withstod a run of outs of 100. Its no problem LOL. OK it was a problem but as you said dosent take too long to get square. My failing was incorect staking

Michal

[darkydog2002]

Hi Alf ,The ONLY time I got a longshot up was info from a "colourful racing identity "or by pure ARxx..

I still love the top 4 OPENING market and multiplying thr OPENING odds by 1.2 and backing any of them that can make me a profit whichever one wins.
And yeah I still bet through IAS FIXED priced.

God weve been around the traps a long time eh.

Warmest regards
Darcy.

ps .Gee a 100/1 shot would be good right now.Ho Ho

[ubetido]

Hi all

Thanks for the replies, its all good i've been punting for over 35 years so i fully understand all of your comments.

Bhagwan
I noted the markets at 2 minutes to go vs the final dividend and found it to be more accurate. There just seems to be alot of activity the last 5 minutes of betting as you would know.

Generally in this price range they blow so if you see something at say 9.0 theres a good chance it will blow. eg Moe race 5 yesterday RICH RULER was 9.0 then out to 10.30 at the jump. IAS can give a clue at times but not always.

Yesterday market horses fared pretty well, the last few days this barrier has had lean trot as in outs, it does seem to cycle. Lets see how it goes this week.

Michal
Yes the staking is the key as i said i looked at level stakes, i also looked at barrier 1,2,and 3 so to take these barriers when in that odd range however the 3 barrier had some horrendous run of outs and so did barrier 2 but not as bad as 3. Barriers 2 and 3 make a loss level stakes.



Darky yes the market horses is where the bread and butter is made in certain classes.

Cheers
ubetido

Ps Just observe you will see what i mean

[darkydog2002]

Hey Alf I never bet a horse up IN CLASS OR DOESNT RACE ON THE PACE

Backmarkers have too much against them (trapped wide/interference from other horses etc

Her,s an idea for BET TO LOSE (betfair)

1000 -1100

FAV

MUST BE BACKMARKER

RIDDEN BY A 2-3 Claiming APPTC

Cheers.
darky

ps Sent you a letter text me your phone and I will give you a ring.Ive got heaps of dough.

[ubetido]

Hi all

Monday Nowra race 4 number 6 1st $20.20

cheers
ubetido

[ubetido]

Hi all

Darwin race 1 number 7 1st $22.20

cheers
ubetido

[ubetido]

Hi all

27/01/2010
Wyong race 6 no. 6 1st 8.00 win (came in)
Geelong race 4 no. 11 1st 9.90 win (came in)
Geelong race 8 no. 9 1st 9.70

28/01/2010
Geraldton race 2 no. 11 1st 62.00 win

cheers
ubetido

[Bhagwan]

Here's a recovery staking plan that could be used to support this approach.

It does well work on paper .
Its the human element that may let it down.

The idea is to bet in sets of 10 , going up the ladder, win , lose or draw, until fully recovered, then start again at the beginning.

1x10
2x10
3x10
4x10
5x10
6x10
7x10
8x10
9x10
10x10
11x10
12x10

Start again once losses fully recovered.
Start again if 12x20 is struck.

Cost $780.

Good for 120 bets.

Combined odds of approx 65/1 needed to break even on the last few bets as opposed to 119/1 at level stakes.

We only need the half the odds required at level stakes, to break even.

[Bhagwan]

That's meant to read 12x10 not 12x20

[ubetido]

Hi all

29/1/2010
Goulbourn race 4 no.5 1st $10.60
Armidale race 2 no.11 1st $19.50

Thanks Bhagwan

Cheers
ubetido

[ubetido]

Hi all

This has been doing well. If anyone has been looking, it has paid some good divs for you.

Cheers
Ubetido

[Try Try Again]

Hi Ubetido,

Interesting concept - "thinking outside the square!"

Which source do you use at the "2 minute mark"? Unitab? Supertab? Other?

Regards

Try Try Again

[ubetido]

Hi TTA

Thanks for your reply i use UNITAB only at this stage to view the odds.

cheers
Ubetido

[system]

hi all good reading im thinking you need to get rid of the mules .
1 bad barrier for good say drew 7 out at last start take look at video if restrained or caught wide etc(weird in perth restrained and ran 99th next start straight to front all over red rover at good odds)and yes i was on it was always going to lead and it was fit after nice hit out start before
2 on pace runner. barrier 1 is hard gate if your jock goes back
3 change of jockey bad for good
4 gear change blinkers or wink ers on or taken off i never back them if they come off
5 what it has on it feet horses with non standard shoes e.g bars shock shod, pads etc
horses with non standard shoes mostly=bad feet bad feet no good for horse
these are some of the things i use to find horses and more importantly to get rid of them from race.
you will get rid of more losers then winners if you do a bit of work.cheers

[ubetido]

Hi all

Winners still appearing over a period of time and consistent results. Bottom line
Profit at level stakes.



Cheers
ubetido