Lay Anomaly

[michaelg]

It would be expected Don Scott's market and Unitab ratings to be somewhat accurate. However the Bet results over the past four days when combined is somewhat disappointing. So I've looked at a Lay method. The Lay selection must be the:

1) Top outright selection with Don Scott's market of a max price of $2.90.
2) And must also be the top outright Unitab ranking.

I have looked at only those selections that have started on Unitab with a max price of $6.90.

Over the past four days there have been 57 selections for 12 accidents (4 were odds-on). I added 25% to Unitab's liability prices. For example, if the accident paid $3.00 on Unitab I deducted the stake of $1 so that the liability was $2. Adding my 25% to this, the liability I used for testing purposes was therefore $2.50.

There were 45 successes, and with Betfair's 5% take-out the retrurn was $42.75 and the total liability using my calculations was $26.50. This gives an overall profit of $16.25. Incidentally, there were 9 selections that started higher than $6.80 on Unitab - they were all beaten.

If anyone's interested today's selections are:

Armidale R1 no.7 - Hypnotize
Armidale R5 no.4 - Studio Star
Armidale R8 no.3 - Laser Light
Goulburn R2 no.11 - Hagiadzo
Mornington R2 no.6 - Marmillion
Te Aroha R4 no.6 - Our Sweetheart
Te Aroha R5 no.4 - Golden Gate
Te Aroha R6 no.10 - Posavina
Te Aroha R7 no.1 - Tampiko.

[michaelg]

Forgot to include:

Rocky R2 no.2 - Imaam.

[thorns]

Cheers for sharing another promising idea!

[michaelg]

Hi, Thorns, it was a winning day.

From the 10 selections one was over $6.80 ($7.60 on Unitab), 2 accidents of $2.10 and $1.80 but 7 successes. By my reckoning it would have produced a profit of 3.27 units from the 9 bets.

Unfortunately I didn't have a bet because I felt somewhat uneasy - logic suggests it should be a Bet and not a Lay system. Time will tell...

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Trentham R4 no.7 (already run - was beaten)

Benalla R1 no.3 (already run - won $1.70)
R4 no.12
R5 no.11
R6 no.11*

Dombeen R8 no.3

Flemington R2 no.7
R3 no.3*
R6 no.4

Gold Coast R1 no.13
R3 no.3
R4 no.11
R5 no.2
R7 no.5

Hobart R2 no.6
R3 no.1
R4 no.5*

Kembla R3 no.2*

Morphetville R4 no.2

Randwick R1 no.1

Toowoomba R2 no.1
R4 no.1
R6 no.4

Ascot R2 no.11
R4 no.10
R5 no.7*

* these five selections have 4 to 6 placed points in their last two runs. I have been looking at them for about a week and they are slightly in profit with Win betting. However there have been too few selections to currently worry about them.

[michaelg]

Not a too bad day in spite of a $6.80 accident.

There were 27 selections. Two didn't qualify because they started higher than my cutoff Unitab price of $6.90 - they were both beaten.

There were 7 accidents for a total liability of 13.50 units. I used 125% of their Unitab liability.

There were 18 successes for a return of 17.10 units giving an overall profit of 3.6 units.

Again, I didn't have a bet. When I do it'll probably crash.

[michaelg]

From today I'll only list the selections that are odds-on in Don Scott's market, this should reduce the liability. Yesterday there were 14 selections for 5 accidents which is not a good strike rate for laying, but the total liability was only $4.55. The worst accident paid $2.00 on Unitab. We'll see how it goes.

Today's selections:
Cranbourne R2 no.7
R3 no.6

Grafton R8 no.3

Hobart R4 no.9
R5 no.13

Kyneton R1 no.8

Pinjarra R6 no.2
R8 no.2

Pt Lincoln R2 no.1
R7 no.10
R8 no.4
Sun Coast R1 no.8

[michaelg]

Today three selections started at more than $6.90 on Unitab which is surprising because they are odds-on in Don Scott's market and are also the top rater on Unitab - all three were beaten.

Of the remaining 9 selections there were 3 accidents for a total liability of 3.75 units, and the six successes provided 5.70 units resulting in a profit of 1.95 units.

[Bhagwan]

Well done Michael

And thanks for sharing those findings.

[michaelg]

Yes, its not doing too badly at the moment.

However, my concern is that the prices I'm using for the accidents (25% on top of the Unitab liability) is unrealistic. For example, if the winner pays $3.00 on Unitab then I'm assuming a Betfair lay price of $3.80. If/when I start laying on Betfair only then will I know.

Two selections today:

Stawell R4 no.12 - Uma Love
Stawell R8 no.6 - Nevajoe.

[thorns]

Yes, its not doing too badly at the moment.

However, my concern is that the prices I'm using for the accidents (25% on top of the Unitab liability) is unrealistic. For example, if the winner pays $3.00 on Unitab then I'm assuming a Betfair lay price of $3.80. If/when I start laying on Betfair only then will I know.

Two selections today:

Stawell R4 no.12 - Uma Love
Stawell R8 no.6 - Nevajoe.I think 25% is more than enough. I have found from my thousands of results with UniTAB and BF lay prices recorded, that as a rule of thumb those under $10 are around %15-16 higher on average on BF, so I think using 25% if anything is being a bit excessive. However, it is better to err on the side of caution. Obviously once you start getting into the higher payers, the sky is the limit when it comes to Bf prices.

Generally if I'm testing a lay system using TAB divis I multiply by 1.2 to give me a feel as I usually am targetting those up to around $7 on BF max.

[michaelg]

Hi, Thorns.

I think there are two ways of looking at it.

1) PRICE - If a horse pays $1.50 on Unitab then a 20% increase on its price comes to $1.80 ($1.5 x 1.20).

2) LIABILITY - In the above example the TAB liability is $0.50 whilst a 20% increase comes to $0.60 which translates into a price of $1.60.

I don't know which method is correct. I suppose it boils down to Betfair's price being closer to $1.60 or $1.80, or even maybe the average of them being $1.70?

However, I would assume each $1.50 Unitab horse can easily differ on Betfair depending on circumstances, so there may not be a conclusive answer?

Its quite possible the results of my testing may not be as good as hoped.

After saying all that, using your method would make me feel more confident, but we'll never really know what prices we would have obtained when testing a method.

[michaelg]

Yesterday there was one accident of $1.70 from the two selections. I don't know if the method would've won or not, but either way the loss/profit would have been minimal.

If today's selections don't crash I'll probably bet with real money tomorrow.

Today's selections:

Mackay R1 no.4 - Work'n'Save
Mackay R4 no.4 - Pershinko
Mackay R7 no.8 - I'm Hot
Cessnock R2 no.4 - Best On Board
W'bool R3 no.4 - Russian Bond
W'bool R4 no.1 - Beatboy
W'bool R5 no.4 - Tuscan Wings.

[baco60]

Hi all,
Going to the Betfair seminar tomorrow. If any one has a specific question for me to ask them please let me know and I will do so
Cheers
B

[baco60]

Sorry wrong post.Should be in Betfair article.
B