Another Lay idea....

[TheSchmile]

Favourite must be odds on.

Lay 2nd and 3rd favourites for the place.

Idea being that punters over bet the other horses for a place when there is a hot favourite.

Thoughts?....

[michaelg]

Twoshoes, I've seen some odds-on races where the Place divvies on the TAB for the second and third faves are very skinny, so there could be merit .

However, the Betfair divvy for the odds-on fave can be quite high compared to the TAB divvy which makes one think this might also apply to the second and third faves.

As I don't know if this is really the case, I'll have a look at it. And if there are only 7 or less original acceptors so that Betfair will only pay on first and second I'll also look at the divvy on the second fave as there might be a weakness there.

[darkydog2002]

1000 -1100 M races only

Must be fav

Must be Backmarker

Must have 2- 3 kg Apprentice

Cheers.
darky

[TheSchmile]

Nice one Michaelg,

I'll be very interested in your findings!

Darky that sounds like a fine laying system indeed. I'm usually very wary of short priced commodities with apprentices on board. Having to negotiate from the back of the pack throws another spanner in the works. I'll monitor that one closely.

Had another laying idea:

1. Bet only on metro meetings

2. Horse must be fav and like to lead/sit second.

3. Horse must not have won at track or distance.

4. Winning %age < 25.

5. Lay in running for 20% less than starting price.

I'm looking for horses that constantly loom up to win but disappoint time and again. Some horses just love to run 2nd. They can get quite short in running and then lose ticker at the 200m mark and run a place.


Two shoes

[darkydog2002]

Thanks twoshoes
There,s a lot of logic in it I believe.
Cheers.
darky

[michaelg]

Twoshoes, I've had a look over the past week and a half at odds-on races for Place betting.

Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be any noticable advantage on Betfair in
betting the second and third faves to Place. This also applies to NTD races.

The only advantage on Betfair is a better Place price on short-priced faves, particularly those that pay $1.04 and $1.10 on the TAB.