Equine Investor's Tutorial (part one)

[Equine Investor]

I am going to start a small tutorial which may help some newer members or those embarking on the punt.
Apologies if it all seems obvious to those wh have been around for a while, but I thought I'd just share some of my golden rules and ideas in the hope it helps somebody else.
My ideas may not suit some people and others are free to agree or disagree.

--------------------------------------------
1. STATISTICS
One statistic by itself is almost useless to you in the whole equation of racing and may be grossly distorted. The only benefit of one statistic by itself is to give you a guide in the general direction you should be heading.

For example an analogy:

90% of houses in Woollongong might be worth $200,000 on average. This statistic says nothing deeper which could give you a realistic price of two-storey houses with a pool.
So you conclude from the raw data that a two storey house with a pool is also worth $200,000 on average.
You pack up the kids (and the wife if you have to) and head off to Woolongong with your $200,000 expecting a really nice two storey house with a pool for the money.

In actual fact the average price of a one storey house with no pool was $150,000 but the average price of a two storey house with a pool is $350,000!!!

There are a greater number of one storey houses without a pool than double storey houses with one.
The conclusion to this is that figures, strike rates, averages etc. get grossly distorted by not considering the total picture.

It applies in fact even more to racing statistics. Because you are trying to predict the winner of a race. Most punters are armed with "global" statistics such as 30% of favourites win and 70% lose.
If you apply further "filters" to this statistic the whole complexion of the data changes.
For instance, favourites with a place record of 100% and a win record of at least 50% which won their last start and won on the track and over the distance at Saturday metro meetings have a win strike rate of
49 wins
102 selections
48.04%
Average dividend $2.09
Profit $2.50
POT 2.45%
(stats based on 3 years results)
This is just an example of how you could turn raw data into something useful and profitable.
You can then use a staking plan on this narrow profit to increase the return %.
But a word of caution - this sort of small sample could well take a turn for the worse. With only 102 selections over three years of Saturday metro racing, there is not a large enough actual sample to get a reliable guide.
Hope this helps when assessing statistics.






<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-24 11:21 ]</font>

[Every Topic]

I look forward to your words of wisdom EI...

my thoughts on this are that people tend to overcomplicate all forms of sports betting.
I know a guy in America who spends 10 hours a day pouring over baseball stats EVERY day of the week during the season- bets on just about every game in every way possible and ends up about 5% ahead after investing massive amounts.

To me, thats just far too much effort for so little return.

My experience in all forms of betting is that one should pay attention to those forms and types of bets that are most heavily supported by the publice - and do the opposite :smile:

most people promote win betting - try place betting.

Most people analyse class and weights and last race etc...
why not just try form?

I remember a little while ago when the group was trying to put together a list of successful ideas for a group selection method and someone simply said - bet on Sunline.

And he was right - with a record something like 46/49 placings why worry about its weight or class. There are plenty of horses in both forms of horse racing going around with huge place records that pay between $1.50 and $2.50 for the place. If you cant find success in that formula then you cant find success anywhere.

for example, yesterday saw
Lasting Faith with a 14/17 place record pay $1.50
Bronz with a 15/17 place record pay $2.10 and Dream of Storms with a 15/18 place record not run a place.
Three bets - for $3.60 return, or 20% POT

add to this Rayjen Sam with a 10/11 place record in its last 11 starts for a $1.80 return and one had a healthy return using nothing more sophisticated than logic.


see ya
Every Topic

[Equine Investor]

Every Topic -

Yes there is certainly more than one way to skin a cat.
Some people can get bogged down in too many stats - but what is important is the relevance of any stat that you do use.

Your example of Sunline for the place or even Northerly or Octagonal is good, but that's kind of with hindsight.

For example, you don't know that those horses can hold their form til the end.
They certainly have a good strike rate, but do horses in general with a high place strike rate regularly place in the future with a classier opposition?
You have to consider the class factor because a horse may have been placed 10/12 starts but is now up against Sunline, Lonhro and Northerly with 3 others in the race with a good strike rate percentage wise for example - so how do you make the decision unless you factor in class?

But your point is well noted about getting too bogged down. For example I use form class, prizemoney and place % as filters but rarely consider jockey or barrier as these factors seem to have minimal impact over 1000 bets.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-24 12:47 ]</font>

[wjp]

Hi.
I'm not so sure that barrier have minimal
impact on race scenario.My point is that good barrier for one horse can be bad for another.Sample:today Sun.Coast race
1/
1. No.6 from barrier 17 distance 1.000m.
2. " 17 " " 2
3. " 10&fav. " 1
wjp.

[Equine Investor]

There will always be exceptions to every rule it's true. No matter what scenario you can imagine in racing there will always be some exception.
If you consider every race and every individual runners ability to either lead from a wide barrier, or come home strongly from an inside one and vice versa.

Statistics wise (speaking purely statistically) barriers are extremely close in strike rate with marginally smaller ratios from the extreme outside etc.

This is where you can get bogged down in stats....
Barrier strike rate over a certain distance
Barrier strike rate at the track
Horses strike rate over the distance
Horses strike rate on the track
It can go on forever until you're left with one runner which may be suited by all of the above and either too short in the market or get a luckless run.

I was giving the overall scenario of a raw statistic and breaking it down futher to produce a profit.
If you tailor statistics too thinly though, you can sometimes rule out a horse that doesn't have a favourable barrier or a elite hoop on board, but still topples the better suited horse at well over the odds.

What you say regarding barriers is often true under certain race conditions with different running horses, but over say a sample of 5,000 races this difference in strike rate is about 1 to 2 % and the difference in available odds is much better than the penalty of a poorer draw should allow.

There are punters who swear by weight ratings, time ratings, statistics and pure form.
Often longterm they can still pull a profit even though they approached it differently and had different selections.

What I am trying to really pass on from past experiences (good and bad) is the danger of taking a statistic on it's own and saying "you can't win backing favourites" and the like.
You can win but you have to be extremely selective on the horse and the price on offer.
Probably much more so than medium priced runners even though it doesn't matter what or how you arrive at a selection it's the value over the true winning chances you are able to get.

We've all seen the bolters at any old odds who are pure distance horses win in a sprint first up from a spell.
Mudlarks pop up in a quality race on a fast track.
Horses carry huge weights on a bog track from an outside barrier to win.

This just doesn't happen often enough to be a trend - however it can and does happen.

(I'd better finish before I run off the page! :lol:)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-25 00:29 ]</font>

[ubetido]

hi equine investor

good idea this tutoring

i have a question for you if you were to use filters what criteria would you say is the strongest.

for eg. you say you use place % as a guide what % is acceptable.

You say you use form in what way do you interprit form.

As you are aware i post my ratings when i get the time my ratings are based on prizemoney and a formula and nothing else.

A formula which was devised is simple yet gets some amazing results.

However Im always looking to see if there is also a simple way to seperate some of the races to say yes this one is better than that selection.

For example when assertive lad won it rated highly yet its form was not something one would want to bet. With your experience was the form of assertive lad that bad or was there something hidden on the past two runs.
eg interference or bad barrier for sprint races sometimes can be important.

I noticed bhagwan quotes looking at horses in barriers say 1-3.

At this point i use value only that is if my toppies are 10/1 or better i back them straight out and if under i combine in trifectas.

I find form can be a bit deceiving at times.

A friend of mine was quite the same in his attitude the k.i.s.s. mentality and you probably get just a good results without all that data to sift through.

His simple assessment was if it is on the limit weight then you have to have a really good reason to support it.

This is of course handicap races not wfa or set weights.

I dont have vast databases but if someone is willing id be ahppy to supply the ratings then for someone to run them through filters and see if a pot of gold can be found well we can all have a share of the spoils.

kind regards
ubetido

[Equine Investor]

I have a question for you if you were to use filters what criteria would you say is the strongest.

for eg. you say you use place % as a guide what % is acceptable.

Hi ubetido,

I don't have all the answers and don't pretend to be an expert in every area, I just wanted to pass on some things I have observed and learnt through hard knocks over the years.
There are all sorts of different limits you can set - one person might set the place% cut-off at 70% and another at 50%.
As a general guide I would set it at 40% as the bulk of winners come from that area.
40% - 100%. However, there is a spattering of winners which do come from the 30%-40% area at great odds. So it's sort of up to the individual.
If you are chasing highly fancied runners at say even money to 10/1 I would suggest 40% cut-off but if you have a system which targets higher priced winners I would include 30% as the cut-off and find an extra filter to narrow them down a little.
This rule has to be a little flexible and it's not set in concrete.


You say you use form in what way do you interprit form.

As you are aware i post my ratings when i get the time my ratings are based on prizemoney and a formula and nothing else.

A formula which was devised is simple yet gets some amazing results.

However Im always looking to see if there is also a simple way to seperate some of the races to say yes this one is better than that selection.


Prizemoney is a great indication of class of any horse but only when combined with form. In other words take the scenario of Bomber Bill very closely near the top prizemoney earner in a lot of the fields he contests but those high stakes come from winnings two preparations ago and his recent form (apart from a very good run at Moonee Valley first up) was well below his best. He hadn't won since February this year.
There are lots of horses like this that just don't perform up to their best for one reason or another the next preparation.
You need to combine prizemoney with recent form.


For example when assertive lad won it rated highly yet its form was not something one would want to bet. With your experience was the form of assertive lad that bad or was there something hidden on the past two runs.
eg interference or bad barrier for sprint races sometimes can be important.


As far as Assertive Lad goes, before his win on 19th October his form was:

05 October 02 14/15 15.8 1200 G3WFA FLEM S D MARSHALL 1
14 September 02 10/12 5.9 1300 G2HCP RHIL J CASSIDY 10

So he started from barrier 1 and barrier 10 and still had no luck so you could pretty much rule out the barriers as an excuse.
It was well documented that Gai had problems getting him right.
The only indication that she may have fixed him to a point where he was capable of winning was his trackwork as he had no barrier trials that month.
He was doing well in light work, but I don't think you would have risked money on paper information at that stage. You would have to be at the track to talk to the people that know the horse etc.
For instance, they gave him a lot of swimming etc, and you can't really get that info from The Sportsman.
As a general rule, I look for a horse showing a glimpse of his best before putting the money on. Sure you miss some winners, but you also avoid many losers.
Another thing is that you should note interference in running if you are watching the races on a Saturday. Sometimes form on paper looks worse than it really is. Interference can cause a horse to lose all momentum and give up the ghost completely.


At this point i use value only that is if my toppies are 10/1 or better i back them straight out and if under i combine in trifectas.


That's the key to success VALUE, whatever method you use to arrive at a selection.

[Every Topic]

EI, before I answer your questions I hope we are going to see a long list of these tutorials.

anyhow, back to your q's...

in horse racing I dont consider class at all.
I will only select a horse with an 80% or better place record and then it must have a minimum of 12 runs under its belt.
The more runs the better.
Logic tells that enough 80%+ runners will over time retain an 80% record.
Whilst it is true horse A might bomb and lose its form, other horses might continue not missing out on a place.

I do add other qualifying factors - dont like a race with more than 2 80%ers, then I usually pick the top weight of the two and price is an issue. I wont bet on it if its less than $1.40
I will also ignore it if it was scratched before the last start.

In harness racing I do pay a little attention to class for horses on the way up since a horse can start its career with a splash only to bomb out completely as it hits the big boys and I pay attention to whether its a country runner trying its luck in the city.

anyhow, must dash and take the kids to school
:smile:

Every TOpic

[Every Topic]

EI wrote...
"Your example of Sunline for the place or even Northerly or Octagonal is good, but that's kind of with hindsight"

not at all, EI.
Once the horse has achieved an 80% record and has run more than 12 times it then qualifies for place betting. I dont have Sunlines record in front of me but if it was something like 46/49 places and it ran a place in its first 12 races, then after that point you would have taken it 37 times and picked up the money 34 times. Of course, sometimes the price might have been too low and sometimes there might have been too few competitors for full place pay outs(in which case I would ignore it).

by the way, to all others reading these posts, in fact reading any posts in this forum, you should always balance what you read with your own limitations - both financially and psychologically. Your own personality is an important consideration in how you bet and you should respect your own shortcomings and strengths.
Its why I like place betting - I get too terrified with long losing streaks to be a good win punter :smile:

see ya
Every Topic

[Every Topic]

to return to your original point EI,
which I agree with - today there are 16 races, which means there will be 16 favourites.

If I look at the paper and take the newspaper selection as the favourite, and look at that horses form then there would only be one of those 16 horses who I would suggest has the form to warrant a bet. for the record this would be Grafton race 6 number 1 - which guarantees it wont win :smile:

So whilst there is always a favourite in every race, in many races there is no horse with the form to warrant taking a chance on betting that it will win. If you eliminate such donkey favourites from the equation, the 30% win rate of favourites increases dramatically and into profitability land, hopefully.

one should always remember, also, that racing is a huge industry and it is better for that industry to have as many people as possible bet on as many races as possible.
Its not good for the industry if the newspaper only prints race 4 with selections and the apology that all the other races are duds. So every race is covered, every race has a selection in the paper and every race has favourites, even if no horse in the field has ever won a race.

see ya
Every Topic

[Equine Investor]

It's great to see that this posting has generated various views and strategies from individuals, and I guess that's what it's all about.

I agree that every punter, especially the newer one's to the forum should make a coffee and go through just about every posting on this forum, and read as much information as possible on racing.
It's only after looking at various views and debates that you can come up with your own angle that you feel comfortable with.

This is highlighted by place betting punters who like the high strike rate and would not endure long losing streaks win betting.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with that as it suits your style.

That's another point, don't take on someone else's strategies unless you are comfortable doing it.
If you are hesitant, more than likely it won't work as well for you because more often than not you won't back some horses which turn out winners.

The 40% plus rule is something that suits me as my average winner is around the $7.00 or $8.00 mark.
If your average winner is around the $4.00 - $5.00 mark you would have to apply extra filters to trim it down.


Do you know the average strike rate of horses with an 80% plus place record?

Winners to runners 19% (win %)
Winners to races 13.34% (win%)

(That's based on three years data saturday metro racing all states excluding jumps and maiden races at city tracks australiawide).

Of course you would be backing horses with top or close to prizemoney and being selective with bets so this would improve dramatically, it's just an interesting statistic and one that many might be amazed at - I know I certainly was.

[Equine Investor]

Just as a further note, which might give you some delight....

I ran your scenario of 12 plus runs and 80% plus strike over the last few years and came up with 49.41% placegetters to runners.

So if you are selective it certainly could turn a profit, providing as you say, you set a price limit.

[darkydog2002]

WHY NOT RANK THE PLACE PLACE STRIKE RATE RATHER THAN CONCENTRATING ON INDIVIDUAL FIGURES.IST=21.7 2ND =13.5 3RD =12.6 4TH 10.4 5TH=8.9. COMBINED 67.1 PC.

[thekey]

Then perhaps look for last start winners, Darky!

[Reenster]

I have a question without notice.

If a horse runs 3rd in a field of less than 8 runners, is the 3rd place counted in its place strike rate percentage?

I imagine it is, but should it be, given that only 1st and 2nd pay for the place in these races.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-11-29 09:05, Reenster wrote:
I have a question without notice.

If a horse runs 3rd in a field of less than 8 runners, is the 3rd place counted in its place strike rate percentage?

I imagine it is, but should it be, given that only 1st and 2nd pay for the place in these races.


Hi Reenster,

Yes I do include those placings, BUT you have to assign some rating or filter to give each placing a value. I also assign a rating to lengths beaten.
For example a horse can run third beaten 1 length or beaten 4 lengths.
So I consider lengths beaten and the class of the placing as well, so a placing in a field of 18 in Listed Race company beaten 4 lengths far outscores a placing in a Class 5 beaten 2 lengths.

Strike rate % alone is not not a good enough indicator, it has to be combined with a class rating, also you must have a fair sample of runs to make a valid judgement - no good assessing 3 runs out of 3 career starts. I usually insist on at least 5 career runs minimum and if less leave the race alone.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-29 11:08 ]</font>

[Every Topic]

EI, you wrote...
"I ran your scenario of 12 plus runs and 80% plus strike over the last few years and came up with 49.41% placegetters to runners. "

is this all races everywhere??? and is this including races where there are more than one 80%er in a race?
Some of the Spring Carnvial races had a bag of 80%ers running against each other.

an interesting stat :smile:

see ya
Every TOpic

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-11-30 12:36, Every Topic wrote:
EI, you wrote...
"I ran your scenario of 12 plus runs and 80% plus strike over the last few years and came up with 49.41% placegetters to runners. "

is this all races everywhere??? and is this including races where there are more than one 80%er in a race?
Some of the Spring Carnvial races had a bag of 80%ers running against each other.

an interesting stat :smile:

see ya
Every TOpic





Hi Every Topic,

It was all Saturday metropolitan races Australiawide for three years, and it did include more than one 80% in a race.