Beaten lengths and SP prices

[peter m]

I've been trying to learn as much as I can about punting on horses for the last few years, this forum being a great source of knowlege and ideas and as I know there are a lot of knowlegeable people on here I'd like to a question.

In your opinion which is a more reliable indicator of the possible future chances of a horse?

The last three beaten lenghts (just as an example) ie the total sum of them

Or

The last three SP figures.

Do you think the total sum of the last three SP figures is a reliable indicator or maybe just last the last one should be taken into consideration as sometimes the horse in question may have had a bad run, bad luck etc so possibly you could excuse it going of at a long price the next run?

Thanks in advance for any replies

Peter

[darkydog2002]

I asked the very same questions to a couple of very experienced Proffessional punters many years ago.
In order of importance were

A/ Placed 1-3 Last start.

B/ Beaten lengths - 1000 - 1600 beaten no more than 2 lengths

1650 - 3200 beaten no more than 3 lengths

C/ 1st 4 bookmakers OPENING prices

Cheers.
darky

[partypooper]

I think the pros advise is pretty well spot on Darky, although I wonder about backing horses in races of 2000+ never been good to me?

[peter m]

Thanks for the replies Darkydog & Partypooper much food for thought.
I know there is a bit of difference of opinion between the beaten lenghts and ran 1st,2nd or 3rd school of thought.

So you'd place more importance on what the horse did at it's last start as opposed to it's last two or three?....re lenghts SP etc

[darkydog2002]

Yes Peter.
The late Ian Barnes suggested going to 4th LS but the general consensus was up to 3rd LS.
The stats as per Malcolm K (run over 100,s of thousands of races) indicate that horses which ran 5th or worse LS are more likely to LOSE next start.

I would be hesitant also to bet a horse that was a backmarker as against a horse that was a leader or races on the pace in the majority of their races (1.e 4th to 6th on the home turn)

Also horses up in the weights 55KG + win more races than those down in the weights.

Cheers
darky
ps .The top 2 racing form papers are SPORTSMAN and ( WIZARD online )

[lomaca]

I think the pros advise is pretty well spot on Darky, although I wonder about backing horses in races of 2000+ never been good to me?Stick to the old adage Party, in distance races tactics are everything, so the trainer and jock have far more influence than anything else.
Provided the horse is good enough for the distance of course.

Cheers

[peter m]

Yes Peter.
The late Ian Barnes suggested going to 4th LS but the general consensus was up to 3rd LS.
Cheers
darky
)
I had he pleasure of speaking to Ian Barnes on the phone a few years ago re info on a certain system seller, nice guy and a very helpful gent, (Ian Barnes that is).
I think that in his book Designing Sytems for the 21st Century he mentions 4th last start.

Just wondering if SP last start is a reliable indicator re the horses chance next start ie how much 'weigh' ,if any, would you give this factor when looking at the form?

Thanks Peter

[peter m]

Hi Darkydog,
Just re read your original post and realised you've already answred my question.

Sometimes I'm a bit slow on the uptake

[darkydog2002]

Hi Peter,
I have a couple of commercial systems here that deal with odds on horses at their last .
Will see if I can find them.
I can post them here or you can contact me personally at hotmail.
I never really tested them myself so cant tell you if they are rubbish or not.
Their a few years old and no longer sold so no problems there.

An idea worth pursuing might be

odds on LS within 14 days

Ran 2nd or 3rd within 2 lengths

On pace runner or leader

Same class or drop in class (not up more than 3 kg in weight-Look at LIMIT weight AND take apprentice allowance in consideration -spelt LIM in your sportsman)

Todays jockey = senior jockey to 1.5 apptc

Official Handicappers weight 55 KG +

All simple stuff really and often the best.

Cheers.
darky

[peter m]

Hi Darky,
Taken me a while to get back.Thanks for the idea you mentioned seems worth looking at.

I am playing around with an idea I got off this very forum a while back in one of the old threads. It involves adding up the last 5 SP figures and then dividing by 5 for an average. Look at horses which have been bet down to less than their average this start. I have been only using the las 3 SP's as I use a free Formguide. It certainly points you in the direction of a few good chances but needs more filters such as days to last start, beaten lengths etc, not even sure. Horses backing up after 7 days seem to do well. Early days yet and I'm not sure if it's a goer long term. I'm looking at midweek races so far.

Another question.

In the "Hypothetical Handicap" a horse A's last three SP figures are 4/1 4/1 and 4/1 total 12 and an average of 4

Horse B's are also 4/1 4/1 and 4/1...BUT horse A's runs were all in fields of 12 and horse B's runs were all in fields of 8

Does this mean that horse A's 4/1 is better than horse B's 4/1 as horse A ran in bigger fields or are the size of the fields already factored into the price equation?
In other words do you have to make an adjustment for field size and if so, how do you do it?........or am I just wasting my time ha ha!!

[darkydog2002]

I wouldnt but if your recording the results trial both approaches to see..
Its all good fun and a learning experience all round.
Generally horses are a creature of habit and they,ll do what they,ve previously done.
i.e if they generally fail 1st or 2nd up then that pattern will continue
If you use a quality racing paper like Sportsman and observe the racing patterns of various horses (say in the top 4or 6 of the bookies OPENING market)its a very good way of PROFILING horses patterns.
i.e
distance preferences
track condition preferences
how long it takes to reach peak fitness
weight carried successfully or not /weight rises Fron LIMIT weight
etc etc
you then gain a far greater knowledge of horse racing than any system could give you although some systems actually do work if based on logic which unfortunately most commercial systems dont.

cheers.
darky