Stats

[Benny]

Here's some stats from my ratings.

Top 2 44 winners from 105 races for a s.r of 41.9% av div $5.01 A longest winning streak of 3 and a losing steak of 7 twice.

Top 3 61 winners from 105 races for a s.r of 58% av div $5.61 A longest winng steak of 7 and a losing steak of 6.

What's next?

[Benny]

I'm looking for a staking plan

[partypooper]

G'day Benny, I'm not the ultimate ekspert but I'm pretty long in the tooth.

Your figures are very realistic, disected = 210 bets for a return of 220 units,
or about 5% POT. or top 3, 315 bets for a return of 342 = about 8% POT

At that level I would use the retirement staking plan (google it) counting either your top 2 as 1 bet or your top 3 as one bet. i.e. say your next bet is $30 so stake $10 on each (backing 3 per race that is) now you have to make the decision whether to back and recalulate race to race OR day to day (my preference) in other words say you have 5 races rated today and your next investment on the retirement plan is 45 units so you have 3 units win on each selection in each race, (always getting the best price possible of course)

At the end of the day recalculate what the next days bet is and repeat process. You should lift your POT to around 20% +

[Benny]

hanks partypooper. Will look into it

[Shaun]

Benny, i am in the same boat i have 4 selections per race, but am considering to change to 2 but the way i am doing at the moment is like this.

Price $2-$3 = 5 units
Price $3-$4 = 4 units
Price $4-$7 = 3 units
Price $7-$12 = 2 units
Price $12-$20 = 1.5 units
Price $20 up = 1 units

[partypooper]

Guess it depends where the profit tends to come from, in Benny's case it would appear that the 3rd selection is the go, as when it is included the POT went from 5% to 8%, I can't see how having LESS on the 3rd selection makes sense, (presuming that the 3rd sel on average would be a higher price on ave. as the sr lifted 15% when included)

Personal thing I know, but I prefer level stakes on all selections, (in one race that is)

An interesting thing is to check to see if there is a level stakes profit from Top rated only, 2nd Top rated only, and 3rd top rated only, could be that you could drop the top rated, and just back the other 2 ????

[Bhagwan]

Maybe Dutch the Top 2 at 2 units.
and.
1 unit flat stake on 3rd selection.

That way one capitalises on the 3rd fav.

[partypooper]

You could always go back to basics and only back overs say, min 20%. (presuming you are rating to price)

[lomaca]

An interesting thing is to check to see if there is a level stakes profit from Top rated only, 2nd Top rated only, and 3rd top rated only, could be that you could drop the top rated, and just back the other 2 ????Party, there is no magic to numbers, IF he has a POT of 5% LONG term, then there are only three possibilities:

1: all three are winning a little
2: two of them winning
3: only one of them is profitable.

But it must be looked at LONG term

At the moment it may be quite unclear which selection is providing the profit, maybe all of them are, but by years of experience I'd say by the time he has a few thousand bets, the system either will be a loser, or one or two selections will come out on top.
Once you know that then you can start betting proportionally.

Being a betting man myself I tip the second selection as the overall winner.
They are often overlooked.

Cheers