Lowest AAP Price, Last Four Races

[jackact]

Here is an idea that seems to have merit, showing about 8% POT, but may not survive the curse of the forum. Might benefit from some filters etc to increase POT.
At each venue (good tracks only), find the lowest price assessed by AAP in the last four races. (I always like the Quaddie races as they are the best betting races.) No first starters or first up from a spell - take the next lowest assessed price that day.
(AAP prices from http://tabform.thewest.com.au/Daily/skins/TAB/navigator.asp?skin=TAB&BP=OK&AW=1232260324876)
Back the selection for a win. If more than one at the lowest price, choose the horse in the later race. e.g. if there in a $2.40 chance in race 7 and also in race 8, choose the horse in race 8.
For today Wednesday, there are only two venues with good tracks:
Balaklava R6 H2
Belmont R8 H2. (I have assumed T Good, as the weather is fine in Perth.)

[partypooper]

jackact, is this paid ratings you are referring to?

[jackact]

Partypooper, I just use the Tabform publication that the West Australian puts out, available thru the WA Tab site. I'm not completely sold on the AAP prices shown there, but their lower priced selections seem to have a reasonable strike rate.

[partypooper]

oh yes I just spotted the link in your original post, got it!

[TheSchmile]

1 from 2 today.

Edge off got up at $3.20. Noticed it was a t/d winner.

Any stats on that jackact?

Have you tried backing overs on the AAP market?

The Schmile

[jackact]

Thanks, Schmile, I'll look into t/d as a factor, and possible selection criterion. No, I haven't exactly used AAP prices for overs, dutching, and the like - I guess I don't have that much faith in their accuracy. It's a thought, though.
Today's selections (Tasmania later if track OK):
Kembla 7/4
Bendigo 5/1
Toowoomba 8/5

Cheers

[partypooper]

jackact, just as amatter of interest how did you find out that the WA TAB-FORM pre post market was AAP?

You know, I used em for years as the basis of my place plan without realising that it was AAP market! I did write to West Australian News and ask at one time but they just told me it was computer generated.

[Merriguy]

Party,

In the Daily Telegraph here in NSW some "Tips" have a name attached to them, the others are simply AAP. I presume that the tips are not just the 3 or 4 at the bottom of the list of runners, but the pre-post quotes as well (maybe I am wrong). The AAP tips seem to be computer generated; but the tips with a name attached usually are more nuanced (for want of a better word) I feel --- so you get $4.20 or $2.80, not just $3.50 and $4.00, and so on.

A bit more grist for the mill --- then again it may be my imagination!!

[jackact]

Hi Everyone,
I deduced (perhaps incorrectly) that the West Australian prices are from AAP, as they are the same as used by the Canberra Times, and I thought that paper acknowledged AAP as the source. As Merriguy says for Sydney papers, Canberra Times tips are labelled "AAP", bit recent Canberra Times form supplements don't show the prices as being AAP sourced. I suspect they are, though. However, it's probably safer if I refer to the West Australian Tabform prices by another name. Thanks, guys.

[jackact]

Losing day yesterday, one collect $2.20 (Unitab) from three bets.
Only one venue today because of wet tracks:
Grafton 9/12

[jackact]

The sole bet yesterday won, $3.00 on Unitab (SP $2.50).
I am nervous about Saturdays with this method. Past figures show spotty results for Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane on Saturdays. Also, these country meetings with six races and small fields are not great form races - small fields can mean indifferent pace leading to form variability.
Still, here goes:
Caulfield 7/3
Belmont 7/6 (subject to scratchings and track condition)
Rockhampton 3/1
Corowa 6/1
Toowoomba 5/3

Good punting

[jackact]

Three winners from four bets yesterday (No bet Belmont, Track Dead). Total return $7.60.
Today:
Strathalbyn 8/3
Bathurst 7/1
Kalgoorlie (subject to scratchings and track condition) 4/1

[jackact]

Both selections lost yesterday. Maybe the forum curse is kicking in. Let's try one more day.
Tamworth 7/5.

[jackact]

I'm getting OK results from entering losing hores from this method into a black book, and backing those which run within 17 days for a place - shows POT (place).
Today's candidates are (Place only):
Port McQ 5/1 and
Port McQ 6/1.
Don't like top weights on a Slow track, but at least they have a claiming apprentice on 6/1.
See how it goes for a while.

[jackact]

The lone selection yesterday was scratched at the barriers. And no joy from the beaten-last-run place selections either - out of the two, one ran 2nd for $1.00 on Unitab (slightly better other TABs), and the other unplaced after being three wide the whole trip.
Today:
Townsville 5/1.
(No beaten-last-start place selections)

[jackact]

Wow, again yesterday the only selection was scratched at the barriers - went through a fence this time!
Wet tracks once more today. There appears to have been no rain in Perth in the last 24 hours, so here goes:
Belmont 8/6 (but confirm track G3 or better).
Hope we at least get a run.
(No beaten-last-start place selections until tomorrow: Gold Coast 8/15)

[jackact]

Not going so well, is it? Only a 3rd yesterday from the Belmont selection.
I'll try once more, and then see if it worth continuing with.
Northam 6/1 (provided track is G3 or better)
(The beaten-last-start place selection for today didn't get a run at the Gold Coast)

[jackact]

No selections today, as all venues rain affected.

[jackact]

Because of wet tracks, only two venues today:
Belmont 5/5 (confirm that track is Good)
Toowoomba 6/2

Beaten-last-start selections for a Place only (these were originally win selections for this method, but which didn't win - I'm getting reasonable results in backing these for a place next start):
Randwick 6/3
Bairnsdale 8/5

[jackact]

It was a disappointing day yesterday, with both win selections unplaced. Accordingly, I won't keep up the daily post of selections. I trust the concept interested forum members and visitors, though, and at least it gave another information resource, the West Australian on line Tabform, to those who were not aware of it.
Good punting to everyone!