The 7% plan

[TheSchmile]

Hi y'all,

I've been perusing the P/L tables on the R & S website and it seems the Jockeys with really low win percentages, lose around 20% more of your hard earned, than their more talented counterparts. Makes sense?!

Thus my decision to lay them.

Rules

- Jockey must have an overall win percentage of less than 7%.

- Must have a win percentage at the track of lees than 7%

- SP $5 - 11


Todays qualifiers:

Rockhampton Jockeys - Harrison, Green

R1 - 10, 14
R2 - 10
R4 - 2

Benalla Jockey - Barry

R7 - 7

Let's see how we go.

I'll try to have it running for at least a month to see if there's any promise.

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Just one qualifier today under the SP $5 - 11.

Rocky

R1 no.10 came 5th.

P/L +1

[Bhagwan]

This system should work well.

I was doing a similar trial on Jockeys with a SR of less than 10% & it worked .

I also did a separate one for Trainers, less than 10% SR, this worked very well also.

I was using the stats from Racingandsports.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Bhagwan,

DId you set a price limit on selections?

I noticed in the $6-11 bracket, the 7% jockeys lost around 40% on turnover,

I'm worried the longer priced commodities will blow out on Betfair.

The Schmile

[darkydog2002]

I like the simplicity of this.Should work well.
Good luck with it.
Cheers
darky

[TheSchmile]

Morphettville - Kerford, Frew, Zanker, Stojakovic, Robinson

R3 - 5
R4 - 2,8
R5 - 3, 13

Belmont - L Robertson, J Hill, L Camilleri, Staples, Parnham

R 2 - 1
R3 - 6, 9
R7 - 8
R8 - 4, 8

Couldn't find much at Sandown and no time to do selections for Canterbury. Remember selections priced $5-11 SP.

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Cheers Darkydog,

The only way I can see it falling down is if prices blow out on Betfair. So I will be monitoring them closely.

If anyone has info on the prices used to work out the Racing and Sports P/L tables, I'd greatly appreciate it.

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Results 02/06/10:

Morphettville - Kerford, Frew, Zanker, Stojakovic, Robinson

R3 - 5 (3rd $8.20)
R4 - 2 (unpl 13.50) ,8 (2nd 5.10)
R5 - 3 (3rd $26), 13 (2nd $3.50)

Belmont - L Robertson, J Hill, L Camilleri, Staples, Parnham

R2 - 1 (2nd $4.80)
R3 - 6 (unpl $60), 9 (unpl $240)
R7 - 8 (unpl $15)
R8 - 4 (unpl $24) , 8 (unpl $10)

Only 3 bets fell into the correct price range so +3 for the day.

P/L +4

[Bhagwan]

Hi Schmile,
I targeted price range 15.00 & less for my exercise.

Betting 1.00 per 170.00

[Try Try Again]

Hi Schmile,

In your rules you are using SP $5-$11 but how do you determine this before the race has run?

Where are you getting your prices from?

e.g. Morphettville Race 4#8 as $5.10 but SP was only $3.80 and therefore not a qualifier.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Try Try again,

I'm using prices on way2bet in the morning as a guide. They are a VERY rough guide!

I don't use bots and the like.

This is simply a trial system and I'm not putting money down.

I'm checking results on the Betfair racing zone website regarding starting prices.

http://racing.betfair.com.au/

Regarding:
Morphettville Race 4#8 as $5.10 but SP was only $3.80 and therefore not a qualifier.
$5.10 was the available lay price on betfair so it was a qualifier.

Hope this helps. If you have any suggestions as to how to streamline the selection process, that would be fantastic!

Cheers,

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Hi everyone,

I'm strapped for time and don't have a database to grab selections, so apologies on missing a few meetings again today.

I'm hoping we'll be able to get a rough guide over the month if this method is worth pursuing in the long term.

I am also building up a spreadsheet of jockeys with below par strike rates and will be happy to share this at the end of the month.

To reiterate my comments to Try Try Again, I'm not currently betting on this system, just testing it.

Selections:

Northam - L Robertson, J Hill, L Camilleri, Staples, Parnham

R1 - 5, 10
R2 - 8
R3 - 2, 3
R4 - 3
R6 - 1
R7 - 4,5
R8 - 2

Gosford - Banks

R2 - 6
R4 - 1

Bendigo - Robertson

R3 - 1
R5 - 4
R5 - 2

Have a beautiful day.

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Results:

Northam - L Robertson, J Hill, L Camilleri, Staples, Parnham

R1 - 5 unpl $40, 10 (won $5.60)
R2 - 8 unpl $48
R3 - 2 unpl $60, 3 unpl $60
R4 - 3 2nd $7
R6 - 1 unpl $12.50
R7 - 3 unpl $40 ,4 3rd $11 note:original selection of 5 incorrect
R8 - 2 3rd $6.60

Gosford - Banks

R2 - 6 unpl $18.50
R4 - 1 unpl $14

Bendigo - Robertson

R3 - 1 3rd $40
R5 - 4 note: mistake as Zahra was riding
R5 - 2 unpl $18.50

P/L - 1.60

Overall P/L + 2.4

It's hard to believe the actual starting prices as compared to the way2bet (w2b) market. All the horses were under $11 on the prepost way2bet market with Race 6 no.1 at Northam quoted at $2.50 and starting at $12.50 on Betfair.

I'll have to find a better guide.

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Echuca - Robertson, S Hunter, S Rawiller, Michael Fitzgerald,

R1 - 1, 5, 7, 9
R2 - 4
R3 - 2
R5 - 14
R6 - 3,4
R7 - 3
R8 - 6

Ipswich - Clasohm

R3 - 7

[TheSchmile]

No bets today as I'm focusing on finding winners.

Will post yesterday's results tonight.

[TheSchmile]

Apologies for the late results.

Results 04/06/10

Echuca - Robertson, S Hunter, S Rawiller, Michael Fitzgerald,
R1 - 1 (unpl $9), 5 (WON $19 no bet too long) , 7 (unpl $6.40), 9 (4th $17)
R2 - 4 (unpl $15)
R3 - 2 Scr
R5 - 14 Scr
R6 - 3 (unpl $16),4 (unpl $27)
R7 - 3 (unpl $5.40)
R8 - 6 (unpl $40)

Ipswich - Clasohm

R3 - 7 (unpl $50)

Only 3 qualifiers for 3 wins. It pays to have the cut off point as it would have been nasty with the no.5 in the 1st at Echuca saluting at around the $19 betfair.

Overall P/L + 5.4

[Bhagwan]

I find races 1200m+ best to target because with the shorter sprint races , anything can fluke a win , especially 1000m events.

I think you will find an improvement in ones figures, just deleting 1000m races.

[TheSchmile]

Thanks for the tip Bhagwan!

I'll note the 1000m races from now on.

[TheSchmile]

Taree - Schubert, Knight, Romeo, Gibbons, Weiszbach, Ms J Riley, Singh,

R4 - 2, 4
R5 - 4, 10
R6 - 2, 6
R7 - 4
R8 - 4

Seymour - Fitzgerald, Dale Smith, Holland, Beriman, McGill, C Robertson, Fry, Cassar, Alesci, Culliver, Malouf, Barry,

R3 - 1, 3
R4 - 6, 7
R5 - 2, 11
R6 - 7
R7 - 8, 9
R8 - 2, 5, 11
R9 - 8

[TheSchmile]

Taree - Schubert, Knight, Romeo, Gibbons, Weiszbach, Ms J Riley, Singh,

R4 - 2 unpl $25, 4 unpl $9.40
R5 - 4 unpl $10.50, 10 unpl $21
R6 - 2 (WON $10) , 6 2nd $6.80
R7 - 4 unpl $8
R8 - 4 2nd $24

Seymour - Fitzgerald, Dale Smith, Holland, Beriman, McGill, C Robertson, Fry, Cassar, Alesci, Culliver, Malouf, Barry,

R3 - 1 unpl $21, 3 unpl $48
R4 - 6 unpl $14.50, 7 unpl $13
R5 - 2 unpl $8, 11 unpl $19
R6 - 7 unpl $27
R7 - 8 unpl $90, 9 unpl $30
R8 - 2 2nd $8.20, 5 unpl $18.50, 11 unpl $12
R9 - 8 unpl $8.20

P/L -2

Overal P/L +3.4

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Albury - Beattie, J Duffy, Maconachie, Jason Collins, Michael Fitzgerald, Sandy Mullett

R1 - 11
R2 - 4
R4 - 6
R7 - 7
R8 - 2, 4

Hamilton - Stryja, Kawakami, S Rawiller, Jason Lyon, Craig Robertson, Jade Da Rose, Sean Harrison, J Matthews, Puls, Malouf,

R4 - 3, 10
R5 - 1, 3, 6,
R6 - 2, 3, 13
R7 - 3, 4
R8 - 2, 3, 10
R9 - 5, 8
R10 - 1, 2, 3, 8

[TheSchmile]

Albury - Beattie, J Duffy, Maconachie, Jason Collins, Michael Fitzgerald, Sandy Mullett

R1 - 11 unpl $12
R2 - 4 2nd $8.20
R4 - 6 WON $7.20
R7 - 7 2nd $14.20
R8 - 2 unpl $11.50, 4 unpl $12.70

Hamilton - Stryja, Kawakami, S Rawiller, Jason Lyon, Craig Robertson, Jade Da Rose, Sean Harrison, J Matthews, Puls, Malouf,

R4 - 3 2nd 3.80, 10 unpl $54
R5 - 1 3rd $4.10, 3 WON $2.40, 6 2nd $10
R6 - 2 3rd $9.40, 3 WON $4, 13 unpl $18
R7 - 3 unpl $18, 4 WON $8.20
R8 - 2 2nd $5.40, 3 $5.60, 10 unpl $6
R9 - 5 2nd $4.30, 8 3rd $5.40
R10 - 1 WON $3, 2 unpl $17.20, 3 unpl $12.70, 8 $14.20

P/L - 6.4

Overall P/L - 3

There would have been a profit today if one stuck to horses in the $5-20 bracket. Might look at a different cut off price in the future.

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

I found this website in my travels. They do reviews of betting systems in the UK. So far only 4 have been recommended from multiple tests and they do running blogs on the systems so you can see how a system is traveling.

I have no affiliation with the site, I just thought it might be of interest to System lovers.

http://www.bettingsystemtruths.com

Cheers,

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Sandown - Wynne, Puls, Cassar

R6 - 4

Balaklava - K Bishop, Frew, Zanker

R2 - 10
R3 - 9, 10
R6 - 3, 6

Canterbury - A Banks, Pearson
No bets qualify in price range

Simply a matter of finding the mudlarks at Canterbury and Sandown today. It's been quite a glorious morning here in Melbourne, so hopefully a good day's punting will follow!

Best of Luck.

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Sandown - Wynne, Puls, Cassar

R6 - 4 2nd $9

Balaklava - K Bishop, Frew, Zanker

R2 - 10 unpl $3.90
R3 - 9 3rd $19, 10 unpl $17
R6 - 3 3rd $11, 6 unpl $14

P/L +2

Overall P/L - 1

[TheSchmile]

Geelong - Bradley, Mc Gill, S Wynne, Barry, R Cartwright, R Booth, C Aitkinson, Jarrod Todd, C A Robertson

R2 - 4 ($11)
R3 - 4 ($11), 9 ($6)
R6 - 1 ($13), 11 ($17)
R8 - 4 ($8)

Ipswich - Erhart, Julie Murphy, Glen Killen, Cecily Eaton, L DeGuara, Nathan Thomas, Nozi Tomizawa, Emily Kehoe, B Hull

R1 - 2 ($2.50)
R2 - 9 ($9)
R3 - 3 ($13)
R4 - 7 ($7.50), 8 ($13), 9 ($17)
R5 - 2 ($4.60), 3 ($11)

Kembla Grange - No Qualifiers

Note: I will now list pre-post w2b prices in parentheses so that we can all have a good laugh at their ridiculousness!!

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Geelong - Bradley, Mc Gill, S Wynne, Barry, R Cartwright, R Booth, C Aitkinson, Jarrod Todd, C A Robertson

R2 - 4 ($11) unpl $110
R3 - 4 ($11) 2nd $70, 9 ($6) unpl $9.80
R6 - 1 ($13) unpl $20, 11 ($17) scr
R8 - 4 ($8) WON 8.30

Ipswich - Erhart, Julie Murphy, Glen Killen, Cecily Eaton, L DeGuara, Nathan Thomas, Nozi Tomizawa, Emily Kehoe, B Hull

R1 - 2 ($2.50) 3rd $1.70
R2 - 9 ($9) unpl $9.40
R3 - 3 ($13) unpl $180
R4 - 7 ($7.50) unpl $21, 8 ($13) WON $200, 9 ($17) unpl $400
R5 - 2 ($4.60) 2nd $18.40, 3 ($11) unpl $110

Race 4 at Ipswich shows why it's probably a good idea to put a limit on lay prices, with a $200 winner coming in!!!! No. 8 Mickydoo ridden by Leanne Deguara. It was almost a bonanza for backers, with Dangarway, no. 4 in race 3 only going down by .5 of a length at $70!! I need a drink........ha ha

Just for the record, Mickydoo's form read:

8 MICKYDOO (4) Peter Bell (Bellmere Lodge) Leanne Deguara 54.5
GR M 4 Fantastic Light (USA) x Shine (NZ) (Zabeel (NZ)) A G Costa, Mrs I B Baldwin-Desaxe & Ms J A Harris PURPLE, GREEN AND WHITE HOOPED SLEEVES, GREEN CAP
Career:1-0-0-0 Dist:1-0-0-0 Dead:1-0-0-0 1st-up:1-0-0-0
09 of 13 11.3L SCST 23May10 1300 Dead MDN 10k Ms L Deguara (11) 56.5 (L: 54 ) Btg:$17 $17; 1-20.58 (600/37.37) 1-Laramie (S Katsidis, 1) 56.5; 2-Our Secret Affair (J Kropp, 3) 52; 3-Finagle (G Killen, 2) 54

It has some terrific breeding on it so might even be one to follow. $200 next start would be lovely.....hmmmmmm.

Dangarway's form read:

4 DANGARWAY (5) Lyn Tolson (Mornington) Rikki Cartwright 57
B G 3 King of Prussia x Brocco Dancer (Brocco (USA)) E J Taylor ROYAL BLUE, YELLOW DIAMONDS BAND, SLEEVES AND CAP
Career:2-0-0-0 $925 Dist:1-0-0-0 Track:1-0-0-0 T/D:1-0-0-0 Dead:2-0-0-0 1st-up:2-0-0-0
04 of 05 2.75L CRAN 3Jan10 1000 Dead 3Y MDN-SW 15k S W Arnold (2) 57 ( SW) Btg:$5.5 $6 $4.60; 1-0.31 1-Conquering Journey (L Nolen, 3) 57; 2-Fanfast (C Newitt, 5) 57; 3-Salado (Ms N Beriman, 1) 57; Led rails tt. Tackled top strt & boxed on steadily to line.
----- 145 days -----
06 of 11 5.9L GEEL 28May10 1100 Dead 3Y MDN-SW 13k B J Melham (6) 57 ( SW) Btg: $10; 1-4.97 1-Sendari (C Newitt, 3) 55; 2-Our Billyjack (B Rawiller, 8) 57; 3-Stellar Wind (C D Symons, 1) 55;

It was that kind of day today with longshots coming thick and fast at Geelong and Canterbury. Wet tracks, sub-standard horses = tough task for punters.

Looking forward to Saturday and Eagle Farm.

P/L - 5.4

Overall P/L - 6.4

The Schmile

[place2win]

Geelong - Bradley, Mc Gill, S Wynne, Barry, R Cartwright, R Booth, C Aitkinson, Jarrod Todd, C A Robertson

R2 - 4 ($11) unpl $110
R3 - 4 ($11) 2nd $70, 9 ($6) unpl $9.80
R6 - 1 ($13) unpl $20, 11 ($17) scr
R8 - 4 ($8) WON 8.30
Schmile
You may have done yourself a dis-service,
C A Robertson has win% (8.9%/12%) current and overall
therefore not a contender, you would therefore be in profit.
Other non-contenders;
K Bradley (6%/10%)
L McGill (8%/2%)
R Cartwright (7.1%/8%)
All supposing I have interpreted the rules regarding win%
and that you derive these from the R&S site under meeting( jockey) stats.
Regards
Shalor

p.s For Ipswich, non-contenders;
E Kehoe (7.1%/6%)
B Hull (8.3%/6%)
But include B El-Issa (6.9%/6%) race 6 no 5 Zenton at 9.00BF(3rd)

[TheSchmile]

Hi place2win,

Thank you so much for your message!

I've been using the 'free daily stats' section, not the jockey info on the meetings page and thus have missed vital data, especially the last 50/350 rides.

i will adjust selections accordingly and hopefully provide a more accurate picture of the true P/L moving forward.

If you have any idea of a better place to find pre-post prices that are closer to the mark I'm all ears.

Keep suggestions and ideas coming, the purpose of this thread is to find a profitable angle to follow.

Thank you once again for your input place2win, I greatly appreciate it!!

Kind regards,

Paully

aka The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Grafton - Anthony Allen, Craig Franklin, M Haga, P Romeo, Murray Lord, P Romeo, M Paget

R1 - 5 ($15), 11 ($11)
R3 - 2 ($15), 3 $15)
R4 - 3 ($4)
R5 - 2 ($4.50), 9 ($13)
R7 - 6 ($11)
R8 - 8 ($8)
R9 - 14 ($13)

Swan Hill - C Puls, Mark Munday, Michael Fitzgerald, Mick Johnstone, R Comitti, Terry Barry

R2 - 3 ($11), 8 ($17)
R3 - 11 ($5.50)
R4 - 10 ($13)

Rockhampton - Mark Usher, S L Evans, Tracy O'Hara

R2 - 9 ($5.50), 11 ($17)
R3 - 9 ($11)
R5 - 3 ($3.80), 8 ($13)
R6 - 7 ($15)
R8 - 4 ($13)

Wyong - no qualifiers

Have a lovely Friday. One more sleep till the Straddie!!

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Hi forumites,

I like to focus on picking winners on Saturdays, so no lays today.

I'll try to post the lays tonight, to give us an idea if they would have won or lost.

Best of luck to all!!

LET'S WIN SOME MOOLAH!!!!

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

More apologies, with the World Cup extravaganza, it's been pretty full on the last week.

Launceston - C Pace, C Hallett, J Lambie, S Brazil

R1 - 4 ($3.50)
R4 - 2 ($11)
R5 - 9 ($9)
R7 - ($10)
R8 - 5 ($5.50)

Mackay - Christopher Mc Iver,

R1 - 8 ($6)
R4 - 4 ($6)
R5 - 7 ($9)

Seymour - J Todd

R4 - 12 ($7)
R6 - 2 ($5.50)

Northam - C Chatfield, C Staples, J Noske, L Camilleri

R1 - 2 ($6), 16 ($9)
R5 - 2 ($4), 3 ($4)
R7 - 7 ($9)
R8 - 6 ($9), 10 ($11)

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Launceston - C Pace, C Hallett, J Lambie, S Brazil

R1 - 4 ($3.50) unpl $18
R4 - 2 ($11) unpl $30
R5 - 9 ($9) unpl $35
R7 - 10 ($10) 4th $17
R8 - 5 ($5.50) unpl $17.50

Mackay - Christopher Mc Iver,

R1 - 8 ($6) 3rd $7
R4 - 4 ($6) 1st $26
R5 - 7 ($9) 4th $17

Seymour - J Todd

R4 - 12 ($7) ABANDONED
R6 - 2 ($5.50)

Northam - C Chatfield, C Staples, J Noske, L Camilleri

R1 - 2 ($6) 1st $3.60, 16 ($9) unpl $40
R5 - 2 ($4) 1st $3.90, 3 ($4) unpl $46
R7 - 7 ($9) 3rd $42
R8 - 6 ($9) unpl $14, 10 ($11) 3rd $19


My sincere apologies but I've realised I simply don't have the time to dedicate to this thread and thus will cease from today. I hope you've got something out of it.

As place2win advised, it is making a small profit if you stick rigidly to the <7% jockey mark and stay within the $5-11 range.

There was one selection for a third yesterday. To be honest I much prefer the thrill of going through the form and finding the winner.

Best of luck to all, Saturday is upon us and I for one am excited!

The Schmile

[darkydog2002]

Thanks for the plan Schmile and good luck when you use it.
I too am sweating on tomorrow.
Currently doing the "Worlds Greatest Method" .
Well the author says it is.Ho Ho.
But we shall see??

Cheers
darky

ps.Here ya go
Sandown
R 4 H 3 = Black and Bent (hurdle 3400m)
R 5 H 6 = Rowland

[TheSchmile]

Is that the system with 'Dark' in its name?......

How could it possibly go wrong?!! ha ha

Thanks for the tips and have a super Saturday! Rowland

The Schmile

[TheSchmile]

Meant to say that Rowland is a fav of mine being by the great Lonhro.

[darkydog2002]

Nah.Havent got that one.I,ve got all the rest though.And performing as expected from that mob.

This one has the lowest loss on turnover of any form factor and wouldnt take much to bring it into consistent profit by getting best price.

Incidently the" Martin Gale Infallible Racing system" ( or as we in the trade call the "Nong Nong" system is holding its own against its commercial rivals.
And posted on this forum.

Cheers
darky