online system builder highest score

[bobbydazzler]

heres a thread for posting your highest profit scores for onlinesystembuilder...
mine is a dismal 12.99 - (but its a profit at unitab prices).....
win only of course
Totals
211 - Selections
Total Money
$238.4

Strike Rate
7.58%

Profit
+12.99%

enjoy

[Shaun]

Totals
387 - Selections
Total Money
$318.7

Strike Rate
26.1%

Profit
+17.65%


Simple Rules

1- Less than 5 yo
2- Started 7 days ago or less
3- Less than 2 lengths last start
4- less than $5 in price

[foxwood]

Hi Guys,
Looks to me like an error in your typing Shaun!
My best effort so far is a longshot system:
Outlay $442 ($1 bets)
Return $548.6
S/R 3.85 (I told you it was a longshot system. There are only 17 winners.)
P.O.T. 24.14%

Cheers
Ron

[Try Try Again]

My Selective Less Runs The Better Plan

Field Size 8-14 runners
Win% > 33%
Win Rank 1-3
Place Rank 1-3
Age 2yo-6yo
Wt < 55.5kg
Barrier 3 to 8 inclusive
Distance 1200 to 2000m inclusive
Career Starts 14 maximum
Days Since Last Start 7 to 21
Last Start Odds <= $3.00
Last Start Favourite - Yes

Outlay $55
Collect $106.80
Profit $51.80
S/R 50.91%
POT% = 94.18%

Backfitting - What a wonderful thing!

If you obtained best of the Totes or SP then results would be

Outlay $55
Collect $113.60
Profit $58.60
S/R 50.91%
POT% = 106.54%

[Try Try Again]

Made a slight error in my calculations for Best of Totes or SP

Outlay $55
Collect $114.00
Profit $59.00
S/R 50.91%
POT% = 107.27%

[bobbydazzler]

thats some serious POT% - we have a winner -

[Shaun]

55 selections. i would go grey waiting for a runner.

[foxwood]

I'm with Shaun on this one. I assumed there'd be a minimum reqirement of say, a couple of hundred bets. If not, there's a subset of my selections which has just 11 bets, S/R 9.09 (i.e. one winner @ $56.4) and POT of 412.73. But who would bother with 1 bet per month? It would drive me to drink.
Cheers
Ron

[Bhagwan]

Sat Metro races only.

242 Bets

25% SR
52% POT

RULES
Plc Rank 1

Barr 1-4

LS 4th-9th

[Try Try Again]

I wouldn't rely only on this system for my Saturday punting but isn't it nice to have it in your arsenal to bring out and get around 100% POT when needed! A winners strike rate of 50% is very satisfying and knowing you're not going to have long runs of losers is also confidence building.

A punter without confidence might as well take up another passion!

[Try Try Again]

One thing I have noticed is the rules we are using are BEFORE scratchings.

Hence where I have suggested using fields of 8-14 these are before scratchings and could include races with 5,6 or 7 starters (after scratchings) and similarly for barriers 3-8 if a horse drawn in barrier 2 is scratched the horse that would have moved from barrier 3 to 2 still qualifies but a horse moving from barrier 9 to 8 does not.

I guess if we are consistent with the parameters we use then it should not make much difference to the results we achieve.

[bobbydazzler]

hold your tickets - we have a protest and maybe a new winner

412% POT

theres more POT here than what was at woodstock..........

[darkydog2002]

Sure beats me .I,ve only got 62.6 % on TO
darky

[Bhagwan]

If one struck a $6.00 shot with their first bet, then no more bets for the rest on the year , that would equate to 500% POT & the eventual winner of the exercise , wouldn't it?

[bobbydazzler]

im guessing so - and heres me thinking a 12.99% profit was good.....it took me ages to get that score .....

[darkydog2002]

Even 5 % per year POT is great.The late Don Scott worked hard to get that figure.,and manually too.But then he never bothered with backfitting results
Personally I wouldnt have the patience to bxxxer around with his rigmarole.
Darky

[foxwood]

Mr Steward,
Please don't fire in any protest on my behalf. A system which picks just one winner for the year, even if (or especially if) it's from just eleven bets is no system. The reason I mentioned that subsystem was to illustrate that POT, albeit the point of this thread, is probably not the best way to judge a system.
In my humble opinion Bhagwan's looks far the most promising and the POT if that is what you're after can be raised to 94.96% by simply raising the Unitab price threshold to $5.00. One interesting fact though about his system (as with some of mine I hasten to add) is the long strings of losers followed by winners coming in bunches. It obviously warrants further investigation as to why? Maybe track conditions, class of races who knows? But I will try to find out and let you know.
Cheers
Ron

[Bhagwan]

The hardest thing to do in creating systems , is to try & formulate a profitable plan that has very few rules.

The fewer the rules , the greater the chance it has of repeating its success into the future.

Having large runs of outs is part & parcel of most selection plans.

The theoretical longest run of outs to expect with a 25%SR at some stage, is 25 outs in a row.
So make sure the bank can handle 3.5 times that if betting level stakes.

Restricting the price range is possible one of the better filters one can use to increase profits.

[bobbydazzler]

is their some sort of scale or mathematical equation with that run of outs - its sounds very interesting- For example whats the theory on a 40% SR or a 15% SR ..... mmmmmmmmm ........ I average about 22%SR with one system and in 18months it has a longest streak of 9 outs - that would mean somewhere down the track i could expect a run of outs of about 30 ..... is this correct ??????

[TheSchmile]

Hi Boobydazzler,

By my maths, you are hitting 22% winners, so have a 78% chance of hitting a loser.

So chance of runs of outs:

1 = 78%
2 = 60.1% (.78 x .78)
3 = 47.4 % (.60.1 x .78)
4 = 37% (47.4 x .78)
5 = 28.88% (37 x .78)
6 = 22.5% (28.88 x .78)
7 = 17.56% (22.5 x .78)
8 = 13.7% (17.56 x .78)
9 = 10.68% (13.7 x .78)
10 = 8.33% (10.68 x .78)

I believe this is correct, if anyone can delve deeper please feel free to.

The Schmile

[demodocus]

By my maths, you are hitting 22% winners, so have a 78% chance of hitting a loser.


Using Nick Aubrey's method we get

22% SR over 1000 races

100% chance of hitting 5 runs of 15 outs

60% chance of 1 run of 22 outs.

See prog. "The Risk of Ruin" (Google it).

[bobbydazzler]

cheers demodocus - thats very interesting - i googled risk of ruin and found plenty of good reading....looks like a late night of mathematical reading ahead....

i guess i have been lucky so far - only ever 9 outs -

[lomaca]

i guess i have been lucky so far - only ever 9 outs -BOBBY,

it's statistics!! You, personally may go for ever without reaching the statistically proven number of outs, but someone else will pay for your "luck" to make the numbers correct.

On the other hand, it may strike when you least expect it and last for far longer that the stats indicate.

Hope it never does!

[demodocus]

BOBBY,

it's statistics!! You, personally may go for ever without reaching the statistically proven number of outs,

I'm sure that actuaries all over the world will be fascinated by your insight. The mortality tables are obviously rubbish ..... I hope nobody tells the AMP (I have shares in them).

[lomaca]

I'm sure that actuaries all over the world will be fascinated by your insight. The mortality tables are obviously rubbish ..... I hope nobody tells the AMP (I have shares in them).I'm not averse going into a fight, but in this instance, I cheerfully decline.

To fight an unarmed man is totally unsporting.

There are only two things certain in life "death and taxes"

Next time think again!
Good luck with your punting!

[Try Try Again]

Hi Bhagwan,

You put up a "system" based on Place Rank = 1. It seems to have disappeared from this thread.

I have modified it further to achieve >100% POT.

Thanks for the idea

Looking forward to this weekend to see if there are any qualifiers!

[darkydog2002]

Is this it?

Place Ranking = 1

LS Win less than 0.8 L

Age 4 YO

4 + Career Starts

SP today = $2 - $8

Cheers
darky

[Try Try Again]

Hi Darkydog,

I think it was

Place Rank = 1

Barriers 1-4

Last Start placing 4-9

it gave a 25% S/R and a POT = 52%

[darkydog2002]

Hi TryTry Again,
I always like to write Bhagwans methods down (Always food for thought)
In fact I often put the selections down here on the forum Saturdays amongst the better systems I have.
Cheers
darky

[Try Try Again]

Hi Darkydog,

Look at including these rules to Place Rank = 1

8-14 starters

Last start 4th to 8th (I eliminated 9th last start from Bhagwan's method)

<= 2000m

3yo to 6yo

barriers 2,3 and 4 (I eliminated barrier 1 from Bhagwan's original method)

These extra rules increased the S/R and the POT%

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

Try Try Again,
Thank you.Most appreciated
Cheers
darky

[jackact]

As I understand it, you guys are proving that back-fitting results to characteristics is dumb. If that is the case, the two qualitifers today under Try's amended rules should have next to no chance:
Randwick R8 3
M/ville R6 1
Cheers

[Try Try Again]

As I said in an earlier post the online systems creator DOES NOT take into account scratchings and hence fields of 8-14 are BEFORE scratchings so only qualifier today is Light Tan (Race 6#1 Adelaide).

[crocware]

Hi all,
I've been using a number of systems for some time now with reasonable success. All have had my hard earned on them, no point just backtesting, may as well throw in some cash as well.

Each one is based on logic that targets value. There are very few rules in each system, and I'm prepared to break the rules if I see something is obviously wrong, such as a selection is also identified as a potential 'lay" by another selection process.

Here is the results for one of them (with no subjectivity):

System 1: Targets first uppers from a spell or letup.

Selections = 315 (in 18 months)
Wins = 56 (17.78%)
Places = 107 (33.97%)
Win Return = $565 (unitab)
Place Return = $308.9 (unitab)
Win POT = 79.78%
Place POT = -1.94%

A few people have been talking about the "run of outs" and "risk of ruin". Very important stuff for any punter. You have to know what your strike rate is at all times. With this system it is low at just 17-18%. It's worst run out outs is 23, which statistically is under the maximum expected of 29 for 315 bets at 17.78% strike rate.

So I guess with this one it's outperforming at the moment and I could be in for a long run of outs. Maybe....

The rules:

1. Days since last run > 28
2. Starts on the track > 0
3. Last start Price < $4.00
4. Distance Place% > 0
5. Distance Win% = 0

Rule number 5 is the value creator. Yes, must never have won at the distance, but has run at the track and placed at the distance. My reasoning here is that so many punters rely of the "TDM" next to a horses name. It's prolific. So much so that these nags go around at over the odds.

One thing I have noticed with this system, is that it makes virtually no money from October through to February. It may be worth just jumping on these selections during the quieter months from April through to September. Interesting...