Favourites agree

[ubetido]

Hi all

Have been observing this for a while and results don't look too bad.

(1) Go to R&S
(2)Click on customised formguide for each meeting
(3)Tick your field format as you want it
(4) click on 1 pre post market
(5) click on 2 for Don Scott worksheet dividend
(6) click on 3 for Neural price
(7) click on scratchings

This will dislay the fields and prices across the page.

Only take the favourite that agrees with all three markets.

eg 1.5 pre post 2.2 don scott 2.9 neural
If the above are all favs in their respective market
thats the selection.

Cheers
Ubetido

[darkydog2002]

My query with that is
a/favs lose 67 % of the time.

b/ they are almost always under the odds.

Cheers
darky

[ubetido]

Hi Darky

Yes i agree with your sentiments on that, however one would find that the amount of favs reduce because all 3 markets have to agree.

Also sometimes you will find the public looks elsewhere for the winner and good value can be attained. Skilled was one example when it won that big race a while back (extreme example but possible) it got out to $10 even though it was the favourite across those 3 markets.

A bit of detective work would pay dividends. Some are at silly odds i agree.

This has a good place strike rate:
Today 5 selections 4 placed

Cheers
Ubetido

[ubetido]

Hi

Two selections come up for Monday 12/7:

Echuca
Race 3 no.10
Race 6 no. 5

Of course conditions on the day may determine results eg heavy tracks but lets see how it goes and what odds are thrown up at the jump.

cheers
Ubetido

[ubetido]

Hi

4 selections for Tues 13/7:

Sale
Race 1 no.4
Race 9 no.5

Scone
Race 3 no.6

Townsville
Race 7 no. 4


Cheers
Ubetido

[wesmip1]

Ubetido,

Interesting concept... Can I suggest a filter if you get a chance to check it out.

a) Only take those where all 3 have it priced under $3 and/or
b) Only take those that start under $3.

Good luck with it.

[ubetido]

Hi

Thanks Wes

Yes something to look at heavy tracks etc are a bit dicey prices are calculated according to a good track as i recall.

So far using your model Wes as in part (a) none qualify as indicated.

Today both started over $3 but heavy and slow tracks today so always cautious with conditions like that.

Cheers
ubetido

[system]

hey darky what % of odds on fav,s get beat

[darkydog2002]

Hi System .
42 %.

Cheers
darky

[ubetido]

Hi all

Wednesday 14/7 4 selections

Grafton race 2 no.3

Sandown race 3 no.4

Warwick farm race 1 no.3
race 6 no.5

Cheers
Ubetido

[TheSchmile]

Hi ubetido,

Looking like a good lay system on maiden races the last 2 days. I don't like backing shorties in the maidens, as I want them to show they can win before I get on.

In saying that, Magic of Emma only just got nutted today in the first at Sale, by a classy Moody horse.

Agree with Darky that most of the selections will be short. This doesn't matter if they make a profit but maybe get rid of the 'pre-post' rule to inject some value?

Just an idea and best of luck with this method.

The Schmile

[ubetido]

Hi all

results so far.

Echuca (Heavy)
Race 3 no.10 u/p sp 3.2
Race 6 no. 5 u/p sp 3.5


Sale (dead)
Race 1 no.4 2nd sp 2.5 place 1.2
Race 9 no.5 2nd sp 4.2 place 1.6

Scone (Heavy)
Race 3 no.6 2nd sp 3.2 place 1.5

Townsville (good)
Race 7 no. 4 1st sp 1.8 place 1.1

Cheers
Ubetido

[wesmip1]

ubetido,

Don't fall into the trap of needing action... make the best bets possible and only part with your money when your confident in your selection.

Its better to have a stricter criteria in most cases rather than have more action.

Something to note from research is that horses actually perform closer to expected on slow/heavy then they do on dead ground.

If I was you I would also rule out dead tracks. I believe track bias is more prevalent and can be a major issue with dead tracks.

[ubetido]

Hi

Results
Wednesday 14/7 4 selections

Grafton race 2 no.3 u/p sp 5.1 (good)

Sandown race 3 no.4 2nd sp 2.7 place 1.2 (heavy)

Warwick farm race 1 no.3 1st 1.6 place 1.4 (slow)
race 6 no.5 u/p sp 5.8

ubetido

[ubetido]

4 selections tomorrow

Thursday 15/7/2010

Launceston Race 4 no. 3

Northam Race 2 no.1


Rockhampton Race 2 no. 1
Race 4 no. 1

cheers
Ubetido

[ubetido]

Thursday 15/7/2010

Launceston Race 4 no. 3 3rd sp 1.7 place 1.2 (slow)

Northam Race 2 no.1 abandoned


Rockhampton Race 2 no. 1 3rd sp 2.7 place 1.4 (good)
Race 4 no. 1 u/p sp 2.9

[ubetido]

Hi

Friday 16/7/2010

3 selections today

Ipswich (Good)
Race 1 no. 1 1st 2.2 place 1.2

Geelong (Good)
Race 3 no.1 1st 3.1 place 1.3
Race 5 no.4 2nd sp 2.1 place 1.1

Cheers
U

[ubetido]

Hi

Saturday 17/7/2010
Belmont
Race 2 no. 1
Race 3 no. 5

Caufield
Race 2 no. 1
Race 5 no. 1
Race 7 no. 2

Doomben
Race 6 no. 5

Gold Coast
Race 1 no. 7

Morphettville
Race 1 no. 1
Race 2 no. 5
Race 3 no. 2

Rosehill
Race 1 no.1
Race 4 no.2
Race 5 no.2
Race 7 no.3

Cheers
U

[ubetido]

Hi all

Saturday 17/7/2010
Belmont (dead)
Race 2 no. 1 3rd sp 3.2 place 1.6
Race 3 no. 5 1st 2.00 place 1.5

Caufield (dead)
Race 2 no. 1 u/p sp 3.2
Race 5 no. 1 2nd sp 3.7 place 1.7
Race 7 no. 2 2nd sp 2.5 place 1.4

Doomben (good)
Race 6 no. 5 2nd sp 3.4 place 1.6

Gold Coast (good)
Race 1 no. 7 3rd sp 2.7 NTD

Morphettville (slow)
Race 1 no. 1 1st 2.1 1.2
Race 2 no. 5 1st 3.3 1.3
Race 3 no. 2 1st 2.0 1.2

Rosehill (dead)
Race 1 no.1 u/p sp 4.3
Race 4 no.2 u/p sp 2.7
Race 5 no.2 u/p sp 4.5
Race 7 no.3 u/p sp 3.7

Toowoomba
race 3 no. 1 1st 2.0 1.3

A bit of a mixed bag but some patterns emerging.

Cheers
U

[ubetido]

Caufield (dead)
Race 2 no. 1 u/p sp 3.2

Should read
Race 2 no. 1 2nd sp 3.2 place 1.4

[lomaca]

A bit of a mixed bag but some patterns emerging.
Hi ubetido,

I've ran it for the last couple of month, every day, all tracks, all conditions, does not look good. Saving grace, there are not too many selections.

One thing I noticed, well a couple actually, your selections are not always the same as my records. Only a few so it can't make any difference. I put it down to the fact that I get them later in the evening.

Second prob. more important, in the prepost prices there are quite a few where there is more than one horse rated at the same price.

Which one do you pick?

Good luck

[ubetido]

Hi

Sunday selections and results

Casterton (Heavy)
Race 1 no. 5 u/p
Race 3 no. 3 1st w3.6 p1.4
Race 5 no. 2 1st w2.1 p1.2
Race 7 no. 1 1st w1.8 p1.4

Canberra (goog)
Race 2 no.1 1st w3.7 p1.7
Race 3 no.3 u/p
Race 5 no.1 2nd w0 p1.0

Cheers
U

[ubetido]

Hi Lomaca
Thanks for your observations.

There is no doubt this needs some refining but at this point all i do is look at the pre post if they are equal then i look at the DS market if one of those is the fav. then i check the neural market if all agree thats the pick.

Some areas need adjustment and the tracks well not sure they have made such a big difference be it good or heavy but early days yet.

So far up to my last post using UNITAB
29 selections without any filters

win return 20.20
place return 20.70

so as it stands you are correct doesn't look great.

Cheers
U

[ubetido]

Monday
Dubbo
Race 1 no. 8 u/p

Tuesday
Geelong(Good)
Race 1 no. 9 1st w1.5 p1.2
Race 2 no. 2 1st w1.7 p1.0
Race 6 no. 3 3rd p1.5
Race 9 no. 1 2nd p1.2

Port Mcquarie(heavy)
Race 1 no. 3 2nd p1.1
Race 2 no.1 1st w3.5 p2.1
Race 3 no.1 u/p

Townsville(good)
Race 4 no. 5 1st w1.7 p1.0
Race 6 no. 2 2nd p 1.5

Wednesday
Belmont(good)
Race 1 no. 4 u/p
Race 3 no. 2 1st w 3.9 p1.8
Race 6 no. 3 1st w3.5 p1.7

Eagle Farm(good)
Race 4 no.1 u/p

Sandown(heavy)
Race 7 no.3 1st w3.3 p1.6