Lay The First 2 Favs

[Shaun]

Does anyone have any thoughts about laying the first 2 favs in each race to a fixed liability, have you tried it?

[Bhagwan]

This can work brilliantly if on can identify the races where the Fav has a strong chance of falling over.

One method is target races where the Don Scott has his fav at 3.00+
This identifies the race to target.

We then Dutch Lay the Betfair top 2 live market Favs

[Mark]

Very close to my main source of income Shaun.

[Shaun]

I read a post on another forum about it where they basicly dismissed the idea.

[Mark]

Good for "them".
My Betfair a/c says otherwise.

[Shaun]

I was looking at some stats that say the first 2 win about 45% of races, the 2nd/3rd fav are less but with a higher price, i may have to do some more checking on this.

[Mark]

Shaun, this from another thread.....

Bhagwan
Member Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,071



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1st Fav--30%
2nd Fav--20%
3rd Fav--15%
4th Fav--10%

Total 75%
__________________

Pretty much tallies with what I get.

[Shaun]

Ok, as i said maybe not 1st and 2nd but a different combination as long as the prices are right.

[system]

shaun i have been keeping record of bookie top 4 in betting for just on a week fav has won 31% and top4 75.4% and if you backed each 1 you would be down $23.50 if you laid the fav and backed 2nd 3rd 4th you would be down $12.50 out of 180 races ive done all based on best tote div.

[Mark]

Shaun, drop me an email.