Lay the Fav Plan

[Bhagwan]

This Lay plan has shown strong promise so far, but may need more research.

RULES
Target races fields with 2-3 last start winners only.

Lay the live Betfair market Fav.


Bet 1% of bank flat stakes.


For whatever reason , our observation is , whenever there are 2 or 3 last start winners in the field , the Fav tends to fall over a lot.

[Bhagwan]

Results
Sun 16/8/10

Lays
9 from 11 = 82% SR

In 11.00
Out 4.60
Prof +6.40

[jose]

Baggy, if you have the results for 16/08/10, could you please send then thru to me, as I have never had the results before they are run before.
We could clean up.

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, some time ago I looked at a similar Lay the Fave plan.

The only rule was that at least a minimum of 25% of the field were last start winners. Unfortunately it failed.

However, I'm almost certain I only looked at Saturday races for the four main states, and this is where the better horses run. As yesterday was a winning day for your method maybe it could be successful if Sat racing is omitted?

[michaelg]

I've had a look at last Saturday for the method. The criteria I've used is that there must be at least two last start winners in the race.

The result for the four major states:
14 races for 9 smiles.
5 accidents for a total liabilty (NSW divvies) of $7.00.


The result for the other states.
13 races for 6 smiles.
7 accidents for a total liability of $12.20.

From the grand total of 27 races, 12 faves won and 19 placed.

Betting them on Betfair would most likely have produced acceptable profits for both Win and Place.


EDIT

I've now looked at the opposite for Saturday, where only one horse must be a last start winner. No Maidens. I don't know if Darwin R3 was a Maiden, but the fave lost, which I have not shown in the results below.

30 races.
6 accidents
Total TAB liabilty $10.60.
24 smiles for a return of $22.80
Adding 33% to NSW TAB divvies = $14.10
Overall result = +$8.70

There were

[Bhagwan]

Well done Michael,

Very interesting findings.

[michaelg]

Ive looked at Sunday where only one horse is a last start winner - it was a losing day, as opposed to Saturday's good results.

I've also looked at last week's five mid-week days where at least 2 horses won their last start - it was more or less break-even.

Over this short period, there doesn't seem to be any consistency.