Place System?

[michaelg]

As mentioned on another thread, I'm testing an each-way system that shows promise, particularly when race 6 and onwards are omitted.

Out of curiousity, I looked at Don Scott's market for race 6 and higher expecting a washout. But it seems he doesn't do too badly in these races, and I''ve now tested a Place system using his market.

The rules are:

1) R6 and over.
2) Place-bet his outright fave providing he prices it under $3.50.

Since last Saturday there have been 37 selections for 22 placegetters. From the unplaced 15 selections 5 of them ran fourth, most of them at attractive prices. One or two winners even paid double-figures, but I did not record win-betting.

So the Place outlay has been $37 - the return has been $50.40 on NSW TAB, which isn't too bad. As Party has mentioned on another thread, Centrebet would improve any TAB result.

I know D. Scott's prices can change after the event so I've identified today's selections before the first race has been run for all venues. They are:

Belmont
7/8
8/2

Eagle Farm
6/1
7/1

Gawler
6/2
7/3

Geelong
6/12

Randwick
7/2

We'll see how they go.

I haven't checked any results for races 1 to 5.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Michaelg.

[partypooper]

michaelg, I have been looking at something very similar using IAS OPENERS, which looked promising for a while but then slipped into around 60% placed (i.e. worse than just backing the fav) mind you I didn't restrict the prices, that might be the key!

[michaelg]

Party, as you say "that might be the key'.

4 of today's 8 races have now been run, and the TAB return is currently at $8.30. Its doubtful that the results from last Sat would be this good if the price in D.S's market was not capped.

Can you can identify from your results what the IAS opening prices were?

[partypooper]

michaelg, yes I have the lot recorded , necessary as they disappear at the end of the day (on the IAS site I mean) I will do the exercise and let you know

[Crackone]

I know D. Scott's prices can change after the event so I've identified today's selections before the first race has been run for all venues. They are:

Belmont
7/8
8/2

Looks like Race 7 has changed before the race

[michaelg]

The price I recorded this morning for Belmont 7/8 was $1.40, and 8/2 was $2.80. According to the current market as shown on my computer they haven't changed???

[Twodogs]

Well done mate!!

Just one miss today from 8 selections and a good profit!!

Cheers
Twodogs

[kumite]

where do i find Don Scott's market or the forum thread that tells me this please?

[michaelg]

Kumite, its on the Racing and Sports website.

In the Racing Section click on to the Free Daily Stats and this will take you to the racing. Towards the right hand side of the screen there are generally four symbols. The third symbol looks like an open page with a blue lining on top, this will take you to an area with a market at the right hand side of the screen - this is Don Scott's market.

Twodogs, yes it was a very good day. 7 successes from the 8 selections for a return on NSW TAB of $12.30.

Will it continue...?

[Crackone]

The price I recorded this morning for Belmont 7/8 was $1.40, and 8/2 was $2.80. According to the current market as shown on my computer they haven't changed???Your right the prices I looked at was the Neutrals

[partypooper]

Michaelg, just as a matter of interest your picks today as quoted IAS openers.

PR7-8 $3.40c Fav. paid $1.60 best tote
PR8-2 $2.ooc Fav paid $1.30c " "
BR6-1 $7.50c NOT FAV
BR7-1 $7.00c NOT FAV
Gawler 6-2 $2.60c Fav paid $1.50c best tote
" 7-3 $15 NOT FAV
Geelong6-12 $$4 Fav paid $1.70c " "
SR7-12 $1.80c Fav paid $1.20c " "

either way, good picking!

[michaelg]

Let's hope it'll be successful today:

Rocky
6/8
7/2

Geelong
7/1

H'bury
7/1
8/3

Morphetville
6/3
7/2
8/5

Northam
6/11
7/1
8/1

[darkydog2002]

Michaelg
What would be the Longest and shortest winning run between races for the Place.Looking for a medium range for allups PLACE.
cheers
darky

[michaelg]

Darky,

unfortunately I don't have any information about the shortest or longest winning runs.

However, there have been 29 placegetters from 45 selections for a return of $62.70, which is a strike rate of 64% and an average divvy of $2.16.

[lomaca]

unfortunately I don't have any information about the shortest or longest winning runs.

What are the EXACT rules Micheal?
I have DonScott prices from 19/04/10, even if some have changed after the race, it still would be indicative, I can look it up for you.
Cheers

[michaelg]

Thanks, lomaca.

The rules are:

1 ) Race 6 and over.
2 ) Outright fave in Don Scott's market, and he prices it at under $3.50.

Not a good start today. There has been one placegetter of $1.40 from 3 selections, the 2 unplaced selections ran fourth.

[lomaca]

Thanks, lomaca.

The rules are:

1 ) Race 6 and over.
2 ) Outright fave in Don Scott's market, and he prices it at under $3.50.

Not a good start today. There has been one placegetter of $1.40 from 3 selections, the 2 unplaced selections ran fourth.OK you'll get it before lunchtime tomorrow maybe sooner.
Good luck

[lomaca]

OK you'll get it before lunchtime tomorrow maybe sooner.
Good luckCheck your Email Michael!
Cheers

[michaelg]

A losing day yesterday. 5 successes from 11 selections for a loss of $2.60. Three selections ran fourth.

Over the two days its showing a 10% POT.

Today's selections are:

Canberrra 6/8
Geelong 7/1
Ipswich 6/16
Taree 7/1 and 8/6

[lomaca]

A losing day yesterday. 5 successes from 11 selections for a loss of $2.60. Three selections ran fourth.

Over the two days its showing a 10% POT.

Today's selections are:

Canberrra 6/8
Geelong 7/1
Ipswich 6/16
Taree 7/1 and 8/6Hi Michael, check your email and drop race 7

Good luck

[lomaca]

Hi MichaelSome important update!
Good luck

[partypooper]

G'day michaelg did you carry on with this one? I intended to watch it but forgot.

One interesting thing though, the similar plan that I was testing using IAS openers, I applied your "no bet above $3.50" rule which reduced the overall loss from 9% to almost break even, good stuff, I was wondering have you tried restricting the field size in any way, i.e. 8 runners and above, or 8-10 etc etc.

the amount of 3rd (NTD) and/or 4ths is frustrating though isn't it?

[michaelg]

Hi, Party.

I discontinued it after receiving information from lomaca's data base that it was not a winner.

However, we did not restrict the size of the field nor look at any other filters. Seeing that limiting the price of the IAS fave to under $3.50 has improved your results I think it could have merit, and will now look at field size.

lomaca, if you read this, is it possible to look at fields with a maximum of 12 runners, and also those that ran fourth or better last start?

Thanks in advance.

In the meantime I'll privately monitor the method using the two above rules.

[michaelg]

Party, I've had a look at the results for Sunday and today.

19 selections for a return of $15.10. I've looked at field size, finish last start and Don Scott's price but they all finish in the red.

I would presume that the IAS prices are more accurate than D.Scott's? And lomaca's results show its a loser, he's even looked at races 1 to 5 but they also are unfortunately not profitable.

lomaca, if you read this please disregard my request for further testing.

Thanks.

[partypooper]

michaelg, yeah its funny how we sometimes look as if were onto a winner only to find it falls in a heap later, my recorded results using IAS openers looks like they maybe more accurate at predicting the fav but whether thats actually any good or not remains to be seen. I could start the usual list of rules, but thats what I was trying to avoid, as its small profit big t/o I'm after.

[darkydog2002]

It would be a brave man who bet today .
Mind you I will bet the WTB selection.They seem to pluck winners out of nowhere.